Big Gossey shaped well when second two starts back and has won twice in his last six starts, arriving fresh on 20 days' rest with experience of today's trip and going; the 142 lb burden is worth noting, but he heads the ratings as the one to beat.
Form last 6192125
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR112RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hardy Warrior shaped with plenty of promise when third last time out and was a winner five starts back, bringing strong recent form into this having run over today's trip and going; the main risk is that he has not recaptured that winning thread in his last four outings.
Form last 6-13443
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
96SR105RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ribee showed his best when scoring five starts back, and that winning form combined with experience over today's trip and going keeps him very much in the picture from stall six off 133 lb; the worry is he has finished fifth or worse in three of his four most recent starts.
Form last 6-15275
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR100RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rahmi shaped with plenty of promise when second last time out, has experience of today's trip and going, and a rating of 102 puts him firmly in contention from stall four on a return 22 days later; the main concern is a trainer operating at just 3% over the last fortnight.
Form last 6-98062
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
92SR103RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pierre Royal won three starts back and was second two starts back, so he arrives in decent nick after 27 days off; he has run over today's trip and going before and carries 128 lb from stall 10, though a fourth last time out and a rating of 93 suggest he faces a stiff task against stronger rivals.
Form last 66-6124
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
98SR95RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts, Lord Massusus at least returns on a manageable 27-day break with experience over today's trip and conditions, and a rating of 98 gives him fair claims from stall 11, though the 127 lb burden is a stern ask against this field.
Form last 6367805
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
75SR98RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Loughrea arrives in cracking recent form — a winner last time out and two starts back, though he was only second three starts back and has had 44 days off the track since, which may blunt that sharpness slightly; experience over today's trip and going at least counts in his favour.
Form last 65-211
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
102SR91RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Four consecutive starts without troubling the judge since winning five starts back make Dos Mukasan hard to fancy at the foot of our rankings, and his speed figure of 75 underlines the concern; stall one and experience over today's trip are modest positives at best.
Form last 610-009
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR82RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Second last time out suggests Final Voyage is finding his feet again, but the trainer's dire recent strike-rate — just one winner from 29 — is a notable concern, and he has been inconsistent in recent starts, with only one win in his last six.
Form last 6471702
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR91RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 13 of 18 on our figures, Booyea faces a stiff ask from stall 16 carrying 124 lb, and an eighth last time out does little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's distance and going before.
Form last 60-5028
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR85RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hellorhighwater arrives in decent nick with back-to-back wins and has run over today's trip and going, though 126 days off the track is a concern and his rating of 93 ranks him mid-pack in an 18-runner field.
Form last 6221-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR93RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Manton Bay won last time out and returns quickly on eight days' rest, with experience over today's trip and going in his favour; however, he finished eighth three starts back and is ranked towards the bottom of this field, so he faces a stiff ask from stall two off 123 lb.
Form last 6-32821
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR87RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kalir won his last two outings so arrives in form, but our figures rank him well below the field here, and a speed rating of 71 makes him hard to fancy at the weights despite his recent back-to-back victories.
Form last 6-34411
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR84RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Playin Cool has shown he can mix it at this level, placing second and third in recent starts, but he is yet to win in his last five and returns after 51 days off, which adds a fitness query to his already inconsistent profile.
Form last 6-80230
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR87RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Genuine Article does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and 27 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; however, his recent string of unplaced efforts makes it hard to fancy him strongly from stall 13 off 119 lb.
Form last 67-0500
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
69SR94RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, Slieve Binnian is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a quick 14-day turnaround in reasonable condition.
Form last 6006974
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR83RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Engines On has been unplaced in each of his last three starts and, ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, is hard to fancy at this stage; he does at least return to a familiar distance and going, and that winning run four starts back is a reminder he can find the line.
Form last 631-000
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR83RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Johnny Soda has won three times in his last six starts, with a second last time out following back-to-back wins, so the recent form reads well enough, but he is ranked 14th of 18 on our figures and faces a stiff ask at the weights carrying 119 lb from stall 18.
Form last 6157112
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR84RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Pierre Royal owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Adrian McGuinnessAdam Caffrey
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Loughrea
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Andrew Slattery✓ Value Signal
Engines On
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · John Andrew Kinsella◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Loughrea (SR 102, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and arrives on a hot 5-2-1-1 form sequence — two consecutive wins — with proven distance aptitude (DistFit:+) at a mile. The 33% market shortening (Mkt:in33%) is the most aggressive steaming in the race, signalling strong informed support. Carrying just 9-0 gives a meaningful weight advantage over top-weight Big Gossey (10-2, SR 82) and Pierre Royal (9-2, SR 98), meaning the SR edge is not being offset by the handicapper. The 44-day break is the one caveat, but trainer Andrew Slattery running at a 10% strike rate and the strong market move suggest the yard is confident the horse is ready.
Each-way alternative: Pierre Royal.
Main danger: Pierre Royal — Pierre Royal (SR 98, 5/1, DistFit:+, Mkt:in13%) has proven distance aptitude, is the McGuinness yard's #1 runner over stablemate Johnny Soda given the stronger jockey booking and tighter market move, and carries a light 9-2 — a genuinely competitive weight — giving it the best chance of upsetting Loughrea if the winner needs more race-time after 44 days off.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
44-day layoff is a tangible fitness risk; trainer Andrew Slattery runs at only 10% strike rate, meaning yard confidence suggested by market move could easily be misplaced.
Trainer Andrew Slattery also rides as jockey (SR 7%, 471 rides) — a part-time riding trainer in an 18-runner handicap at the Curragh is a significant in-race tactical disadvantage against stronger jo…
Hellorhighwater (SR 95, 8-11) returns from 126 days off on a 221-1 form sequence and carries 5lb less; if fresh-horse risk cuts both ways, the dangers get the benefit too, and Lupini runners have for…
Rahmi (SR 92) and Pierre Royal (SR 98) have both been heavily supported today (in39% and in13% respectively), meaning the market is not exclusively endorsing Loughrea — rival informed money is fragme…
ShortlistLoughrea, Pierre Royal, Johnny Soda, Kalir