Yarmouth 14:03 RESULTED
Class 4 14 Aug 2026

Friday 14 August Download The QuinnBet App "Confined" Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race)

Download The QuinnBet App "Confined" Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race) · 1m3y

Official Result

Download The QuinnBet App "Confined" Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Matins (GB) Cieren Fallon · William Haggas
    1/33F
  2. 10/1
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Settled
  • 2 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Matins silks
Matins
Age 3 · 9-11
1
158
3
9-11
1/50 0.01/1 0.02/1
Favourable weight of 9-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.

2
Emperor Aurelius silks
Emperor Aurelius
Age 3 · 9-4
139
3
9-4
14/1 11/1 12/1
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Matins 1/50 1/50 open 1.01 1/50 open 1.01 1/50 open 1.03 1/50 1/50 Bet365
2 Emperor Aurelius 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 18/1 Ladbrokes

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Matins

High conviction

Matins owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (88) and market confidence (100). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

1/50 William Haggas Cieren Fallon
92% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Emperor Aurelius

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

14/1 · Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque
✓ Value Signal

Emperor Aurelius

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

14/1 · Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
88 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +33.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +22.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +5.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 2 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Matins
75.2 1/50
2 2. Emperor Aurelius
59.2 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Matins
High

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 3 · 9-11
1/50
★★★★☆ SR 158 🐾

Favourable weight of 9-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.

2
Age 3 · 9-4
14/1
★★★☆☆ SR 139 🐾

SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

Steamers Shortened — market backing

No steamers in this race.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Matins
Confidence: High

Matins (SR 158, 1/50) is a 19-point ability superiority over Emperor Aurelius (SR 139) in a two-horse race — that gap is decisive at this level. William Haggas (21% career strike rate, 1,063 runners) is one of the most reliable trainers in British racing and Cieren Fallon (20%, 811 runners) is a proven booking for a confident yard. The horse arrives off a winning run 20 days ago at the same class, carrying 9-11 which is reasonable weight for a SR-158 performer. The 1/50 market price reflects a near-certainty in the eyes of the market, and there is nothing in Emperor Aurelius's data — a drifting 14/1 shot with no recorded form figures and a lower-profile trainer/jockey combination — to suggest an upset. Each-way alternative: Matins. Main danger: Emperor Aurelius — The only realistic scenario where Emperor Aurelius wins is if Matins suffers an incident — a stumble at the start, a refusal, or an undisclosed setback — given the SR gap is too large to bridge on merit.

Case against 4
  • Matins carries 9-11 giving away 7lb to Emperor Aurelius — in a two-horse race with no pace pressure, weight concessions are magnified and 7lb is a significant physical burden at Yarmouth's flat, test…
  • The 'HG:t' flag indicates today's going may differ from Matins' last winning surface — if Yarmouth is riding softer or firmer than ideal, a 20-day-fresh horse may not handle the conditions as well as…
  • Emperor Aurelius's blank form ('------') conceals unknown ability entirely — in a two-horse race there is no beaten rival to benchmark against, meaning the 19-point SR gap is based on zero empirical…
  • At 1/50, Matins offers almost no margin for error; any minor mishap (slow break, traffic in a two-horse race being minimal but still present) would make a lay at these odds extremely costly, suggesti…
Shortlist Matins, Emperor Aurelius
Each-way: Matins Danger: Emperor Aurelius

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m3y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
2 Confirmed runners
Yarmouth Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade