Nottingham 17:45 RESULTED
Class 4 11 Aug 2026

Tuesday 11 August Download The Oddschecker App Nursery Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Download The Oddschecker App Nursery Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) · 1m75y

Official Result

Download The Oddschecker App Nursery Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Apulia Bay (IRE) James Doyle · Simon & Ed Crisford
    1/6F
  2. 7/2
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Settled
  • 2 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Time For The Moon silks
Time For The Moon
Age 2 · 9-5
3100
87
99
92
2
9-5
5/2 7/4 2/1
Boasts a win three starts back and a third four starts back on today's going, though two unplaced efforts since give slight pause; back after 18 days, the top-rated colt looks the one to beat here.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Apulia Bay silks
Apulia Bay
Age 2 · 9-4
32
86
99
89
2
9-4
3/10 5/14 1/4
Twice placed in his last two starts, Apulia Bay brings strong fitness at 14 days, experience on today's going, and a yard firing at 26% — though yet to score in recent starts, that's the one knock against him here.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Time For The Moon 5/2 open 2.75 5/2 open 2.88 5/2 open 2.88 11/4 open 2.75 2/1 11/4 William Hill
2 Apulia Bay 3/10 open 1.44 2/7 open 1.40 2/7 open 1.40 1/4 open 1.40 4/11 4/11 Betfred

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Apulia Bay

Speculative

Apulia Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (55) and market confidence (99). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/10 Simon & Ed Crisford James Doyle
74% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Time For The Moon

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/2 · Charlie Johnston
✓ Value Signal

Time For The Moon

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

5/2 · Charlie Johnston
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
55 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +20.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
99 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +21.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +5.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 2 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Apulia Bay
59.2 3/10
2 1. Time For The Moon
55.4 5/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Apulia Bay
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 2 · 9-4
3/10
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 2 · 9-5
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Apulia Bay
Confidence: Medium

Apulia Bay (SR:99, 4/11) holds a meaningful edge in connections quality: the Crisford yard fires at 20% career strike rate versus Johnston's 13%, and James Doyle (18%) is a materially stronger booking than Callum Shepherd (13%). At 1lb lighter (9-4 vs 9-5) the weight advantage is negligible, but Apulia Bay's form string of 3-2 (placed both career starts) shows consistent improvement in a shorter, cleaner profile versus Time For The Moon's 3-1-0-0 sequence, which includes a recent blank (0) and a 5% market drift suggesting connections are not bullish. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) into a two-runner nursery with strong jockey and trainer metrics makes Apulia Bay the clear selection at a short but justified price. Each-way alternative: Time For The Moon. Main danger: Time For The Moon — A three-class drop combined with the Charlie Johnston yard's ability to place improving juveniles means Time For The Moon could outrun the drift if the recent '0' is form-line noise rather than a genuine ability concern.

Shortlist Apulia Bay, Time For The Moon
Each-way: Time For The Moon Danger: Time For The Moon

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m75y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
2 Confirmed runners
Nottingham Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade