Person of Interest is winless in his last five starts, sixth last time out having been unseated the run before, so this is a modest springboard to top a weak book. Still, he edges it on our figures at 102, has raced over today's distance before, and returns from a 25-day break carrying 174 lb.
Form last 6P49-U6
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
91SR—RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 suggests ability but 8/13 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Definite Dream is without a win in her last four starts, but a second two starts back shows she stays competitive in this grade, and she rates a strong second on our figures at 102. She has both today's distance and going covered, returns from a 25-day break, and that modest scoreline remains the one query against her.
Form last 6/45-24
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR—RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Thickthorn Tom finished runner-up last time out, a winner two starts back, form that makes him a threat despite sitting only fourth on our figures at 92. He has raced over today's distance before, returns from a 23-day break, and his trainer is among the form, landing 10 of the last 27; his 95 official mark sits above our figure, the one query.
Form last 6P3-212
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR—RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Applejack Poet is winless in his last five starts, sixth last time out, third two starts back, and a faller four starts back. He races over today's distance and returns quickly on a seven-day break, but a rating of 88, a shade below his 89 official mark, keeps him firmly in midfield.
Form last 64F7-36
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR—RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Boom Boom's recent form reads three straight pulled-up efforts, but our figures still rate him well clear of that at 99 — some way above his 83 official mark — hinting at untapped ability. He has both today's distance and going covered and returns from a 26-day break, though that run of unfinished races is impossible to ignore.
Form last 687P-PP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR—RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Bahtiyar is winless in his last five starts and rates only sixth of seven on our figures at 85, leaving him hard to fancy. He does have both today's distance and going covered, and a pair of seconds in his recent starts show he's capable of running well, but a 39-day layoff adds a further question.
Form last 62-4425
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR—RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fox Wallace is bottom of our figures here at 80 and her recent form does little to argue otherwise — three pulled-up efforts sandwiched by a fifth and a sixth. She does have today's distance and going covered, but a 45-day gap since her last run adds to the concerns.
Form last 66PP-P5
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR—RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Thickthorn Tom owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Person Of Interest
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
8/13 · Faye Bramley✓ Value Signal
Applejack Poet
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Barry John Murphy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Thickthorn Tom (SR:97, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin, holding a 6-point SR edge over the favourite Person Of Interest (SR:91) while carrying 1st 10lb less at 11-10 versus 12-6 — a meaningful weight advantage on good to firm ground over 2m3f+. The Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton combination is the strongest handler-rider pairing in the race with career strike rates of 21%/27% respectively, and the recent form of P3-212 shows consistent competitiveness at this class with two wins in the last three completed runs. The MarkMv:+10 flag is a note of caution — running off a mark 10lb higher than the last win — but the SR superiority and the weight pull over the odds-on favourite make this the logical selection.
Each-way alternative: Bahtiyar.
Main danger: Person Of Interest — Person Of Interest (SR:91, 8/13) is market-backed at odds-on with a 7% inward move, Harry Cobden in the saddle, and despite the poor DistFit:- flag and recent U in form, the weight of money at this price suggests connections believe it can handle the trip and conditions today.
ShortlistThickthorn Tom, Person Of Interest, Bahtiyar