Kept on for third at this course last time, 6 lengths off the winner despite struggling to land a blow from his position; tongue-tie fitted for this return, works well over this ground and trip, and the mark remains workable — inconsistency for the new yard is the main caveat.
Form last 61P50-3
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
115SR—RPR130OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carries top weight of 12-0 with patchy form (1P50-3) and a mid-range Saturday Rating of 115 at 13/2 in the market.
Beaten well at Perth last time when failing to stay the distance; drops back to his preferred shorter range now with first-time blinkers and carries a mark below his best — the trainer is in good nick but he is yet to win in recent starts.
Form last 6UP0-46
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
110SR—RPR130OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 12-0 with poor recent form of UP0-46 and a Saturday Rating of 110 makes 13/2 odds unappetizing.
Narrowly held last time, going down by ¾ length off 123 before his stamina faded late; 4lb higher here but visor fitted and effective over this range of trips on decent ground — in good recent order and has every chance if the mark doesn't prove too stiff.
Form last 6251-32
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
123SR—RPR127OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid Saturday Rating of 123 and consistent form of 251-32 are offset by top weight of 11-11 at 10/3.
Won over fences at Perth last time by 6 lengths off a 7lb lower mark; hood and tongue-tie now fitted and he's generally consistent over this range of trips — 7lb higher but there could be further improvement to come back over fences and hard to dismiss.
Form last 6563-21
★AI Rating★★★★☆
119SR—RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Recent form showing a win and second from last two runs justifies 3/1 market confidence despite carrying 10-12.
Finished 4½ lengths off the pace at this course last time and his best hurdle figures suggest he's on a workable mark; tongue-tie fitted and effective over this trip on good ground — should go well if producing close to his ceiling.
Form last 61426-3
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
111SR—RPR111OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 111 and recent form showing a third from five runs justifies mid-tier appeal at 6/1 carrying 10-9.
A horse who clearly thrives at this venue and put in a dominant display last time here, taking a handicap by 5½ lengths off a 7lb lower mark; consistent type effective at this trip and connections have taken the past two editions of this race — he looks a serious threat to the favourite.
Form last 62674-1
★AI Rating★★★★☆
115SR—RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Recent winning form and competitive 3/1 odds support Sean Og's 115 Saturday Rating carrying 10-6.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Breizh River owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (68) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/8Tristan DavidsonHarry Reed
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Buy Some Time
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · R Mike Smith✓ Value Signal
Got Grey
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
10/1 · James Moffatt◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Buy Some Time (SR 119, 3/1) carries a favourable 10-12 — a full stone lighter than the co-top weights and 13lbs less than Pour Les Filles — and arrives in excellent form with a 563-21 sequence showing a clear upward trajectory culminating in back-to-back placed/winning efforts. The 4-star AI probability rating (joint-highest in the field) aligns with market confidence at a co-favourite price, and good ground suits a horse peaking in form. The weight advantage over SR-123 Breizh River (11-11) is a meaningful edge that tips the balance despite the ratings gap.
Each-way alternative: Sean Og.
Main danger: Sean Og — Sean Og (SR 115, 3/1) carries the lightest weight in the field at 10-6, has a 2674-1 form string showing a convincing last-time-out win, and the 4-star probability rating matches Buy Some Time — if that winning momentum continues, the 6lb weight pull over the selection is a serious threat.