Had every chance in this grade last time but was still beaten 8 lengths here; first-time cheekpieces and sitting just 1lb above his last winning mark are small pluses, though Em Jay Kay returns from a 107-day break and draws wide.
Form last 68-3189
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR—RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 48, 18/1 odds, and poor recent form figures of 8-3189 make Em Jay Kay a weak contender.
AW form looks the key for King David, who was driven too hard in a turf handicap at Bath last time and beaten over 8 lengths; first-time tongue-tie and blinkers are fitted here, but a wide draw and a long winless run limit the appeal.
Form last 6246478
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Saturday Rating of 54 and inconsistent form (246478) at top weight 9-12 make 17/2 odds reflect limited winning prospects.
Off the back of a flat display in a higher-grade event here, Teardrops must come back to form at a more suitable level; the trainer knows this track well, though the wide draw and a winless recent run limit confidence.
Form last 6023480
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-12 with a Saturday Rating of 44, poor recent form 023480, and drifting odds of 18/1 make Teardrops a weak selection.
Back on the all-weather having struggled on turf at Catterick last time, White Umbrella arrives in first-time cheekpieces after 48 days off; she handles the surface and has placed in similar company before, but form has been inconsistent lately.
Form last 6-63650
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight 9-11 with poor form -63650 and a low Saturday Rating of 55 at 8/1 makes White Umbrella unconvincing.
Master Dandy has won twice in recent starts with his best form on the all-weather at shorter trips; he went well below that level on turf at Thirsk last time, but runs off his last winning mark in first-time tongue-tie and blinkers.
Form last 6121870
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 45 with 20/1 odds and erratic form showing an 8 and 0, Master Dandy offers minimal winning prospects.
Beaten 6 lengths at Brighton last time, Thanks Dad arrives without a win in recent outings and with a cold trainer record; first-time tongue-tie and visor are fitted but he is ranked last on our figures and needs a significant step forward.
Form last 600-086
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR—RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Saturday Rating of 44, outsider odds of 14/1, and dismal form figures of 00-086 make Thanks Dad a very unlikely contender.
Pulled too hard at Yarmouth last time and beaten 9½ lengths, Alafdhal needs to settle better; back on the surface he handles best and below his last competitive mark, with a top course jockey in first-time visor, though the widest draw is a concern.
Form last 69-5707
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR—RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Alafdhal's Saturday Rating of 45, 14/1 odds, and poor form figures of 9-5707 highlight minimal winning prospects.
Back to form over a shorter trip here last time, Trust Sergei went down by just 1¼ lengths off the same mark; he can be inconsistent and comes off a short break, but his record at this course makes him a genuine threat.
Form last 65-7462
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR—RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-8 with a modest Saturday Rating of 59 and uninspiring recent form of 5-7462 limits Trust Sergei's appeal.
Running to form at Chepstow last time where he went down by only 1½ lengths off this mark, On Key has been consistently involved; yet to score, but he handles this surface well and the inside draw is no drawback.
Form last 6242523
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
65SR—RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Consistent form figures of 242523 and fair 3/1 odds are offset by a moderate Saturday Rating of 65 and 9-7 burden.
Returning from 137 days off, Last Outlaw made little impact at Southwell last time and performances have slipped back in recent starts; the mark is now considerably lower, however, and he handles this surface and trip, which gives him a slim chance.
Form last 605-055
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
48SR—RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 48 with poor form figures of 05-055 and dismissed by the market at 10/1, Last Outlaw lacks the credentials to compete at 9-6.
Consistent on the all-weather before her latest run, Sunlit Sea was beaten 8½ lengths at Carlisle in headgear that clearly did not suit; first-time cheekpieces are tried here, she draws from stall 1, and she tops our figures in this field.
Form last 63327-8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight 9-5 with a Saturday Rating of just 58, modest 10/1 odds, and a form string showing a recent eighth, Sunlit Sea offers little appeal.
A winner on this surface, Barry The Worm was too free at Salisbury last time and faded down the field; first-time cheekpieces are fitted here and he handles the all-weather well — if able to settle, the ability is there.
Form last 6631-60
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
57SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Midfield Saturday Rating of 57, inconsistent form figures of 631-60, and 9/1 odds suggest a capable but unreliable each-way contender.
Consistent enough at a modest level, Porfin was never able to get into contention at Bath last time and finished fourth beaten 4 lengths; first-time cheekpieces are added and he handles any surface over this trip, though he remains winless in recent outings.
Form last 6530454
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR—RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Porfin's Saturday Rating of 43, 14/1 odds, and uninspiring 530454 form make this a clear market outsider.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Trust Sergei owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2Gary HanmerJonny Peate
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
On Key
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Scott Dixon✓ Value Signal
Em Jay Kay
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Phil McEntee◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Carrying top weight 9-5 with a Saturday Rating of just 58, modest 10/1 odds, and a form string showing a recent eighth, Sunlit Sea offers little appeal.
On Key (SR 65, 3/1, 9-7) is the clear SR leader in this field and the market has installed it as favourite with confidence — that SR edge over the next-best Trust Sergei (SR 59) and Sunlit Sea (SR 58) is meaningful at this class level. The form string 242523 shows consistent competitive finishing: no blowouts, no DNFs, and repeated placed efforts that confirm the horse handles this trip and surface. Carrying 9-7 gives it a 1lb edge over Trust Sergei (9-8) while holding a SR advantage of 6 points, which is a genuine combined edge. Scott Dixon trains an in-form yard and this horse's profile — young (4), consistent, well-weighted — ticks multiple boxes simultaneously.
Each-way alternative: Barry The Worm.
Main danger: Trust Sergei — Trust Sergei (SR 59, 7/2) is the second-shortest in the market, carries only 9-8, and at 4 years old has scope to improve on a 5-7462 form line that shows it has been mixing it at a competitive level — a step forward here would make it the winner.