Addragoole has experience of today's distance and going, a trainer firing at 26% in the last fortnight, and a recent win in his last five starts to his name; the concern is that his latest two efforts have been modest, and 161 lb is a stern ask if he lacks peak fitness.
Form last 61390-6
★AI Rating★★★★☆
134SR137RPR140OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Fifth last time out and eighth two starts back, Ma Jacks Hill has been struggling for consistency, and our rating has him ranked last of six in this field; a win three starts back offers a crumb of hope, but 161 lb makes the task no easier despite experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 65-3185
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR123RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Runcok has finished sixth in each of his last two starts and ranks fifth of six on our figures, making him hard to fancy despite a win in his last five starts and experience of today's distance and going.
Form last 6174-66
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR131RPR130OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bowensonfire has shown progressive consistency in recent starts, placing third last time out and second two starts back, and his experience over today's trip and going stands him in good stead; the concern is he returns just two days after his last outing, and at 156 lb the weight could prove the decisive factor.
Form last 607-423
★AI Rating★★★★☆
142SR143RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Bunting has run over today's trip and going before, and his trainer is in fine fettle at 28% over the past fortnight, making him a lively threat despite carrying 156 lb; the concern is a run of consecutive disappointing finishes that leaves him yet to score in his last five starts.
Form last 64996-6
★AI Rating★★★★☆
127SR134RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Jazzy Matty arrives here just two days after his last start, bringing strong recent fitness, and his second three starts back underlines he can mix it at this level, even if he has been winless in recent starts. He has run over today's trip and going, and the overall profile makes him our pick from the six runners.
Form last 65625-6
★AI Rating★★★★☆
144SR142RPR145OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Bowensonfire owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (79) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
15/8Gordon ElliottJack Kennedy
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Bunting
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/5 · W P Mullins✓ Value Signal
Runcok
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
16/1 · John C McConnell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Bowensonfire (SR 142, 11/4) is the strongest on ability in this modest six-runner field, holds a clear SR edge over every rival bar Jazzy Matty, and crucially carries only 11-2 — 5lb less than Addragoole while rated 8 points higher. The DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ flags confirm proven effectiveness at this trip and on good ground, which is a decisive edge in a race where the two closest rivals on SR (Jazzy Matty, GoingFit:-) and Addragoole (GoingFit:-) both have going concerns. As Gordon Elliott's #1 string (Jack Kennedy booked ahead of Joshua Halford on Ma Jacks Hill, and Ma Jacks Hill has drifted a massive 56% in the market), connections are clearly riding this one to win. The only question mark is the very short turnaround of 2 days since last run, but Elliott regularly targets quick back-up runs with fit chasers at provincial Irish tracks.
Each-way alternative: Addragoole.
Main danger: Jazzy Matty — Despite the GoingFit:- flag, Jazzy Matty's SR of 144 is the highest in the field, and if the going dries further or the fitness edge from a recent run (Days:2) translates, Collins's runner could outclass the field on pure ability at a 5/2 price that still implies reasonable market backing.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads 07-423 — no win in last 6 starts and last three finishes are a third, second and third; this horse finds ways to be placed without winning, a recurring pattern.
Only 2 days since last run (HG:h, hurdles headgear) switching back to chasing context raises fitness/recovery questions even for Elliott's quick turnaround policy at provincial tracks.
Jazzy Matty holds a superior SR (144 vs 142) at equal weight 11-2 and is shorter in the market at 5/2 — the SR edge the analyst claims for Bowensonfire does not actually exist over the field's top-ra…
Bunting (SR:127, Mullins/Danny Mullins, 3/1) has been taken in 14% in the market today while Bowensonfire's stable companion Ma Jacks Hill has drifted massively, suggesting market confidence may be m…