Yermanthere arrives in fine nick, placing second twice in his last two starts and a winner three starts back, with experience over today's trip and going in his favour; the main concern is a trainer operating at just three per cent over the past fortnight.
Form last 6-05122
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR69RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Runninsonofagun caught the eye with a second two starts back and a third four starts back, and at just seven days since his last run he arrives in good order, having run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6513226
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR68RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Theme Park arrives here in excellent heart, placing third last time out and a winner three starts back, with experience of today's trip and going working in his favour; the 138 lb burden is the one factor that could anchor his chances.
Form last 6-05123
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR68RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Simple Star brings solid fitness on a 17-day turnaround and has run over today's distance and going before, while a rating of 69 ranks him second among these 11 — the case for him as a leading danger is real; yet he remains winless in his last six starts, which is the nagging concern.
Form last 6962545
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR69RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in his last five starts, Titainium at least has experience of today's trip and going to call on, and 18 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; the concern is a pattern of finishes deep in the field, and 133 lb is no featherweight task from stall four.
Form last 657-876
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR65RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mayor Of Maghera brings distance and going experience and a win four starts back to recommend him, but he has finished unplaced last time out and has been out of the frame in three of his last four, making it hard to argue he is in the form of his life off 131 lb.
Form last 6341760
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR62RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Falcon Nine has been placed in four of his last six starts, including three consecutive runner-up finishes, yet remains winless in recent starts and his trainer is badly out of form at 4% over the past fortnight — a concern despite him returning on a handy 17-day break with distance and going experience in his favour.
Form last 6249222
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
65SR62RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts, Princess Niyla does bring distance and going experience to the table, and her third two starts back offers some encouragement, but a seventh last time out is hard to ignore and she faces a stiff task from a field of eleven.
Form last 6356537
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR65RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Motawaared has been winless in his last six starts, finishing no better than fourth throughout that sequence, and our figures rank him ninth of eleven here, making him hard to fancy at face value; he has run over today's trip and going before, and a 14-day turnaround suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 6765654
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR61RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked tenth of eleven on our figures, Miners Gamble faces a stiff ask here, though he has experience of today's distance and going, and a third last time out offers a crumb of comfort; fresh enough at 17 days since his last run.
Form last 6968053
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
57SR54RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Langton Wold faces a stiff task here; he has run over today's trip and returns on a quick turnaround of 12 days, but his recent string of sevenths and eighths makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 675/578
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR46RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Runninsonofagun owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Tristan DavidsonJason Hart
76%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Miners Gamble
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · Brian Ellison✓ Value Signal
Simple Star
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Gary Rutherford◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Runninsonofagun (SR:70, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a workable 9-12, giving him a 2lb pull on top-weight Yermanthere (SR:71 but drifted massively at 37% out). The market has backed him in 19% since opening — money moving with purpose — and Jason Hart (14% strike rate from 1,330 rides) is a strong booking. He has proven distance fitness (DistFit:+) at today's trip of just over a mile, and while his GoingFit is only moderate (~), good ground is far from an obstacle. His form line of 513226 shows consistency at this level with no dramatic flop, and at Class 5 with a ClassMv:= he faces exactly the class he has been operating in, removing any step-up uncertainty.
Each-way alternative: Falcon Nine.
Main danger: Yermanthere — Yermanthere holds the joint-top SR (71) and gets a class drop (↓1) on good going where he is proven (GoingFit:+), and despite the alarming 37% drift — which reflects the MarkMv:+5 and distance concerns — if the early market was wrong and connections are confident, he retains the raw ability to win.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
His last three runs show a declining sequence of 2-2-6 — the latest effort was a sixth, and he has not won in six starts, suggesting he may be a consistent placer rather than a winner.
GoingFit only moderate (~) at Musselburgh on good ground today; Falcon Nine (SR:65, 4/1) has demonstrated stronger course suitability with multiple placed efforts at this track and carries 8lb less.
Ran just 7 days ago — a very quick turnaround — raising fitness/recovery questions, especially as that recent run produced his worst form figure (6th) in the sequence.
Trainer Tristan Davidson's 18% strike rate comes from only 136 rides, a small sample; at Musselburgh specifically there is no course record noted, contrasting with rivals who have proven track form.