Lingfield (AW) 19:15 RESULTED
Class 5 22 Aug 2026

Saturday 22 August Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes · 1m0f1y

Official Result

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Timely Affair (GB) Taylor Fisher · William Knight
    9/2
  2. 8/1
  3. 4/1
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Lingfield (AW)

17:10–19:45 · 6 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Arctician silks
Arctician Non-Runner
Age 8 · 9-7
-34787
73
73OR
8
9-7
SP
1
Mollie Foster silks
Mollie Foster
Age 4 · 9-9
1-6666
75
50
78
4
9-9
40/1 10/1 40/1
Mollie Foster's sole recent win came five starts back, and she brings distance and going experience into this, with our rating of 78 putting her right in contention from stall 3; the concern is four consecutive sixth-place finishes since that victory.
AI verdict

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

2
Dannick silks
Dannick
Age 4 · 9-8
708512
74
80
72
4
9-8
3/1 31/19 5/2
Ranked bottom but one on our figures and rated below his official mark, Dannick faces a stiff ask, though second last time out and a winner two starts back at least show he retains some ability, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Daring Legend silks
Daring Legend
Age 5 · 9-8
-20050
74
67
77
5
9-8
7/1 12/1 7/1
SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Madame De Sevigne silks
Madame De Sevigne
Age 5 · 9-7
738790
73
76
79
5
9-7
9/4 3/1 2/1
Ranked top of the field on our rating and carrying 133 lb from stall 2, Madame De Sevigne has experience of today's trip and conditions and arrives here fresh after 28 days off, though she remains winless in her last six starts and that is the concern.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Lady Manzor silks
Lady Manzor
Age 4 · 9-7
864444
73
74
78
4
9-7
5/2 4/1 9/4
Lady Manzor has run over today's trip and going before and her speed rating of 81 suggests she holds solid claims as a leading danger here, but four consecutive fourths in recent starts leave her yet to score, and converting that consistency into a win remains the key question.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Moon Beginnings silks
Moon Beginnings
Age 4 · 9-3
805489
69
69
76
4
9-3
SP 6/1 15/2
Moon Beginnings is winless in his last six starts, though a fourth three starts back offers some encouragement; he has run over today's distance and going before and returns after 20 days, but the weight of 129 lb from stall five may not help his cause.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Timely Affair silks
Timely Affair
Age 4 · 9-0
221331
66
82
64
4
9-0
13/2 9/4 13/2
Ranked bottom of seven on our figures, Timely Affair faces a stiff ask here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and arrives in decent heart after winning last time out, with a return to form from stall one after 30 days off offering slim hope.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Arctician
1 Mollie Foster 40/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 11.00 40/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 15.00 40/1 open 13.00 40/1 Bet365
2 Dannick 3/1 open 2.75 10/3 open 2.63 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 11/4 open 3.50 5/2 open 3.25 10/3 Paddy Power
3 Daring Legend 7/1 open 23.00 7/1 open 15.00 7/1 open 17.00 7/1 open 17.00 15/2 open 19.00 7/1 open 13.00 15/2 William Hill
5 Madame De Sevigne 9/4 open 11.00 9/4 open 7.50 9/4 open 4.50 9/4 open 4.50 9/4 open 4.00 2/1 open 4.50 9/4 Bet365
6 Lady Manzor 5/2 open 5.00 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 6.00 5/2 open 6.00 9/4 open 6.50 5/2 open 6.00 5/2 Bet365
7 Moon Beginnings 15/2 open 17.00 15/2 open 12.00 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.00 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 Coral
8 Timely Affair 13/2 open 3.25 13/2 open 3.75 13/2 open 3.75 13/2 open 3.75 13/2 open 4.00 13/2 open 3.75 13/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Dannick

Speculative

Dannick owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 Gary & Josh Moore Tom Queally
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Madame De Sevigne

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · John Butler
✓ Value Signal

Mollie Foster

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Mark Loughnane
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Dannick
52.2 3/1
2 5. Madame De Sevigne
52.0 9/4
3 6. Lady Manzor
50.0 5/2
4 8. Timely Affair
48.8 13/2
5 3. Daring Legend
46.8 7/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Timely Affair
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 5 · 9-7
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 4 · 9-7
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-8
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 4 · 9-0
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-8
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Timely Affair
Confidence: Speculative

Timely Affair (SR 82, 3/1) carries the lightest weight in the field at 9-0, giving it a meaningful lbs advantage over Dannick (SR 80, 9-8) despite a marginal SR deficit. The form string 221331 is the strongest in the race — consistent in-the-money finishes culminating in a last-time-out win at this class level, and crucially both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm suitability for today's trip and surface conditions at Lingfield AW. Trainer William Knight runs at a solid 13% strike rate and the combination of proven distance/going credentials plus a favourable weight makes this a compelling case. The MarkMv:+4 is a modest rise for a horse on an upward trajectory and should not deter. Each-way alternative: Dannick. Main danger: Dannick — Dannick (SR 80, 11/4) holds a Course:W1P1 record at Lingfield, carries DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+, and Tom Queally's booking for a Moore yard runner at 13% strike rate suggests connections are serious — the market drift of 19% may reflect the MarkMv:+9 concern rather than any loss of confidence in the horse's ability.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Timely Affair has drifted 8% in the market despite being the headline pick — money has moved toward Dannick (out19%) and Madame De Sevigne (in29%), suggesting market intelligence does not support the…
  • HG:p flag indicates Timely Affair's fitness is based on a piece of work rather than a racecourse run, while Dannick (30 days, HG:tv — racecourse gallop) and Madame De Sevigne (28 days) are sharper an…
  • Dannick carries the Course:W1P1 Lingfield AW course record and is trained by Gary & Josh Moore (13% SR) with Tom Queally (13% SR) aboard — a formidable combination with proven course form that Timely…
  • Madame De Sevigne has drifted into 3/1 territory on a 29% market move inward for a trainer (John Butler, 15% SR) running at a higher strike rate than Knight, representing a credible market-backed riv…
Shortlist Timely Affair, Dannick, Madame De Sevigne
Each-way: Dannick Danger: Dannick

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m0f1y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Lingfield (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade