Hurt You Never arrives on a quick 14-day turnaround with experience of today's distance and going, and her third six starts back gives her the closest recent contact with a finish in the frame — though she has been winless in her last six, and replicating that effort is the chief concern.
Form last 6398559
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR—RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Invincible Crown won two starts back and was fourth last time out, bringing solid recent form into this; he has experience of today's trip and conditions, and he carries 134 lb from draw 2.
Form last 6474214
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
67SR—RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts and ninth last time out, Little Jaybee has run over today's trip and going before and our rating has her as the one to beat at the weights — the concern is she'll need to find plenty to reverse recent disappointing form.
Form last 69-8969
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR—RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Sergeant Mayer at least comes here fit on a 16-day turnaround, with experience over today's trip and conditions, and our figures rate him notably above his official mark of 56 — a solid basis for preferring him here from stall one.
Form last 68-0696
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
60SR—RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Star Marian has won in recent starts but was unplaced last time and only eighth before that, and at 59 days off the track her return to form is uncertain. She has run over today's trip, though our figures rank her fifth of six in this field.
Form last 65-1580
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Beaten in each of his last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Up The Monk makes little appeal at present; a win six starts back and experience over today's trip and going are slim pickings, and a trainer firing at just 4% lately does him no favours.
Form last 6164870
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR—RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Invincible Crown owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Ruth CarrTom Eaves
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Hurt You Never
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Adrian Nicholls✓ Value Signal
Up The Monk
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
- · Michael Appleby◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Hurt You Never (SR:60, 11/4) carries a MarkMv:-15 — the biggest mark drop in the field — meaning the handicapper has handed this 7-year-old a significant advantage, and the market has responded with a 14% shortening to joint-market-lead. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on Good to Firm, today's exact going, which is a clear edge in a field where Invincible Crown shows GoingFit:- and two others show GoingFit:?. Course:W1P2 at Nottingham adds a specialist dimension — 3 course visits with a win and two places is tangible evidence of track affinity. The blinkers (HG:b) are retained from prior runs and Adrian Nicholls with Jack Nicholls in the saddle is a tight stable operation that gets results when targeting these spots.
Each-way alternative: Sergeant Mayer.
Main danger: Sergeant Mayer — Sergeant Mayer (SR:60, 3/1) has steamed in 30% in the market — the biggest move of any runner — carries a MarkMv:-7 advantage, and at 9-5 has a 4lb weight pull on Hurt You Never, meaning if those market forces reflect genuine stable confidence, he poses the most immediate threat.
ShortlistHurt You Never, Invincible Crown, Sergeant Mayer