Won last time out and now heads our figures, Grizedale is fit again after a quick seven-day turnaround and already holds form over today's trip; shouldering 149lb from stall one is the only obvious concern.
Form last 6237-01
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR—RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 10-9 with a modest Saturday Rating of 82 and inconsistent form of 237-01 limits Grizedale's appeal at 4/1.
Yet to win in his last six starts, The Dragon King has been runner-up twice, including last time out, and already holds form over today's distance and going; second on our figures, a 25-day break since his last run is the one query.
Form last 6255582
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR—RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 75 with uninspiring form of 255582 and 10-3 weight, the 8/1 shot offers little appeal at that price.
Sea Founder has landed twice in his last six starts, but a below-par ninth last time out is a concern; he already holds form over today's distance and going, though a 26-day break interrupts his momentum.
Form last 6714419
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 70 with weak 714419 form and dismissed at 14/1, Sea Founder carries 10-0 with little market confidence.
Youarenotforgiven strung together three wins in a row but has since found little, finishing sixth and unplaced in his last two starts, and sits bottom of our figures despite already holding form over today's distance and going; first-time cheekpieces offer a possible boost.
Form last 6811106
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long odds of 33/1, a modest Saturday Rating of 60, and inconsistent form of 811106 make Youarenotforgiven an unlikely winner.
The Third Star, without a win in her last five starts, was found out of the frame before a promising runner-up effort last time out; she already holds form over today's distance and going, with a 38-day gap since that run to note.
Form last 6697-52
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR—RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-12 with a modest Saturday Rating of 76 and inconsistent form of 697-52 limits confidence.
Distinct Spirit landed a race before fading to two fifths and unseating last time out, and has now been off the track for 276 days; he holds form over today's distance, but the lengthy absence and moderate figures make him hard to fancy here.
Form last 615/5U-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR—RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 47, 33/1 odds, and form showing a unseated rider make Distinct Spirit a rank outsider with little winning chance.
Nakaaha won last time out and returns quickly on just an eight-day turnaround, already holding form over today's distance and going; a first-time hood is worth noting, though modest form earlier in her recent starts tempers the case somewhat.
Form last 6025561
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR—RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-12 with a modest Saturday Rating of 70 and inconsistent form of 025561 limits Nakaaha's prospects at 13/2.
Mythical Bird was unplaced last time out, though her recent form does include a win. She already holds form over today's distance and going, and a notably strong speed figure catches the eye, but she sits toward the rear on our figures off a 27-day break.
Form last 646-130
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR—RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight of 9-11 with a Saturday Rating of 65, weak 18/1 odds, and inconsistent form of 46-130 signals limited winning prospects.
Yet to win in his last six starts, Signcastle City has racked up two seconds and a third and already holds form over today's distance and going; fourth on our figures with a strong speed figure, though a below-par fifth last time out is a mild concern.
Form last 6402325
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR—RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Consistent form (402325) and a competitive 79 Saturday Rating are offset by top weight 9-10 and mid-market 13/2 odds.
Captain Fox won two starts back on the back of placed efforts, but was well held last time out and hasn't run for 93 days; he does hold form over today's distance and going, leaving a fitness question as the main hurdle.
Form last 6523-16
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR—RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 85 with inconsistent form (523-16) and unfancied at 10/1, Captain Fox lacks the market confidence to suggest a winning run.
Storm Point won last time out, the second success of his last five starts, yet sits near the bottom of our figures with modest speed figures throughout; he holds form over today's distance, but there's little in the clock work to suggest he can defy that gap.
Form last 654-161
★AI Rating★★★★☆
92SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 92 combined with winning form and competitive 11/4 odds make Storm Point a strong each-way proposition at 9-5.
Chale Chalo was well held in ninth last time out but the form figures include a win earlier in the sequence, along with a placed effort too; he already holds form over today's distance and going, and first-time cheekpieces add interest off a 19-day break.
Form last 6931-29
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR—RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long odds of 40/1, a modest Saturday Rating of 65, and patchy form figures of 931-29 suggest little winning chance here.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Storm Point owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3Ed WalkerKieran Shoemark
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Grizedale
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · Daniel & Claire Kubler✓ Value Signal
Sea Founder
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Richard Hughes◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Storm Point leads the field on SR (92) and carries a favourable weight of 9-5, giving him a 16lb advantage over top-weight Grizedale (SR 82, 10-9) — the SR-per-pound-carried equation strongly favours him. His form reads 54-161, meaning a win last time out at this class or adjacent, and the step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is mitigated by that recent winning momentum and a 28-day freshness window. Course:W1P1 at Newbury confirms he handles the track, and DistFit:+ shows proven competence at the mile trip. At 11/4 the market has installed him as clear favourite, and the 4-star AI probability rating corroborates that confidence — he is the most credible winner in this field.
Each-way alternative: Captain Fox.
Main danger: Grizedale — Grizedale (SR 82, 4/1) is the field's second-highest SR, carries the joint stablemate flag suggesting connections may be running him as the yard's primary runner given Distinct Spirit's hopeless chance, and DistFit:+ at the mile confirms he handles today's trip — he is the most straightforward threat to Storm Point.