Win Races With Jonathan Portman EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 6f
Solid 84 Saturday Rating and fair 15/8 odds suit, but 233 form and non-favourite status limit confidence.
Bahia Bonita's solid Saturday Rating of 141 is undermined by 12/1 odds, suggesting the market lacks confidence in her chances.
Form of 563 and a Saturday Rating of 73 limit confidence, despite fair 10/3 odds and manageable 9-2 weight.
Moderate Saturday Rating of 125 and poor form figures of 476 at 28-1 suggest limited winning prospects.
Mid-range Saturday Rating of 144 and 9/1 odds suggest fair claims but lacks favourite market support at 9-2 weight.
At 12/1 with a Saturday Rating of 141 and unknown form, Miss You Nights shows potential but lacks market confidence.
Santo's single run showing a sixth-place finish and 11/1 odds suggest mid-tier potential despite a solid 142 Saturday Rating.
Long odds of 40/1 and no form data make Secret Flite an unconvincing outsider despite carrying 9-2.
Tzaritza's mid-range Saturday Rating of 149 and single-run form of 9 at 5/1 suggest potential but insufficient evidence for higher confidence.
Long odds of 16/1, poor form figures of 75, and a Saturday Rating of 138 suggest limited winning prospects here.
At 11/1 and carrying 8-13, Kiss Cam's Saturday Rating of 144 suggests mid-tier potential without market support.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Angel Sense | 9/4 open 2.88 | — | 9/4 open 2.38 | 9/4 open 2.38 | 9/4 open 2.20 | 2/1 open 2.25 | 9/4 Bet365 |
| 2 Bahia Bonita | 25/1 open 13.00 | — | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 Coral |
| 3 Global Success | 11/4 open 4.33 | — | 11/4 open 5.00 | 11/4 open 5.00 | 11/4 open 5.50 | 11/4 open 5.00 | 11/4 Bet365 |
| 4 Invicta Rose | 33/1 open 29.00 | — | 33/1 open 23.00 | 33/1 open 23.00 | 33/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Mashooga | 13/2 open 10.00 | — | 13/2 open 12.00 | 6/1 open 11.00 | 13/2 open 12.00 | 13/2 open 8.50 | 13/2 Bet365 |
| 6 Miss You Nights | 12/1 | — | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Santo | 11/2 open 12.00 | — | 11/2 open 9.50 | 11/2 open 9.50 | 9/2 open 9.00 | 11/2 open 8.50 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 8 Secret Flite | 40/1 | — | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Tzaritza | 11/1 open 6.00 | — | 12/1 open 7.50 | 12/1 open 7.50 | 14/1 open 8.00 | 12/1 open 8.00 | 14/1 William Hill |
| 10 Clear Horizon | 18/1 open 17.00 | — | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Kiss Cam | 22/1 open 12.00 | — | 22/1 open 11.00 | 22/1 open 11.00 | 22/1 open 11.00 | 22/1 open 12.00 | 22/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Santo owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (79) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSolid 84 Saturday Rating and fair 15/8 odds suit, but 233 form and non-favourite status limit confidence.
Form of 563 and a Saturday Rating of 73 limit confidence, despite fair 10/3 odds and manageable 9-2 weight.
Santo's single run showing a sixth-place finish and 11/1 odds suggest mid-tier potential despite a solid 142 Saturday Rating.
Mid-range Saturday Rating of 144 and 9/1 odds suggest fair claims but lacks favourite market support at 9-2 weight.
Tzaritza's mid-range Saturday Rating of 149 and single-run form of 9 at 5/1 suggest potential but insufficient evidence for higher confidence.
At 12/1 with a Saturday Rating of 141 and unknown form, Miss You Nights shows potential but lacks market confidence.
Long odds of 16/1, poor form figures of 75, and a Saturday Rating of 138 suggest limited winning prospects here.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Bahia Bonita (SR:141, 12/1) is an unraced filly carrying the highest SR among the debut runners and is partnered by Kieran Shoemark (12% strike rate, 885 career rides) — a meaningful upgrade over the lesser jockey bookings on comparable debutants. At 12/1 in a field where the market leader Angel Sense (SR:84) is dramatically inferior on ability metrics, there is clear value. Trainer Jack Jones operates at 11% and has placed this filly well in a Class 4 restricted novice where the opposition is thin: the two experienced runners capable of beating her (Tzaritza, SR:149; Mashooga, SR:144) both have limited or poor recent evidence. The SR edge over Angel Sense is stark — 141 vs 84 — and the favourite's form of 2-3-3 in a class drop does not inspire confidence against a well-bred debutant with superior ceiling. Each-way alternative: Mashooga. Main danger: Tzaritza — Tzaritza (SR:149, 5/1) is the highest-rated experienced runner in the field and, despite a 9th on debut, is stepping up a class tier with the top SR overall — Archie Watson's yard operates at 12% and Luke Morris at 11%, giving her a professional platform to improve significantly on that introductory run.