Duke of Oxford brings a win in his recent form and has experience over today's distance and going, with a rating of 108 placing him second of 17 in this field; the concern is that he has finished 5th, 7th, 6th and unplaced since that victory.
Form last 6-15760
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR108RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prydwen shaped well when winning three starts back and has experience of today's distance and going, making him a clear form pick at the top of the weights on 138 lb; the 53-day absence is the one query, but his rating of 108 marks him out as the one to beat.
Form last 6682157
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR108RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kirchner arrives on the back of a win last time out and was second two starts back, giving him solid recent momentum, though a fifth three starts back and a seventh four starts back suggest some inconsistency; having run over today's trip before, he shapes as a genuine each-way player at 133 lb.
Form last 64-7521
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR98RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Second last time out is his chief calling card, though sixth and ninth in the two starts before that highlight his inconsistency; has run over today's trip and going, carries a stiff 132 lb, but 18 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh enough to make his presence felt.
Form last 6199-62
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
103SR97RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Valedictory won back-to-back two and three starts back, so the winning thread is there, but a fifth last time out checks enthusiasm; he has experience of today's going and comes back quickly enough at 18 days, though 131 lb is a stiff ask.
Form last 6-26115
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR97RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mordor showed his quality with a win three starts back and was third two starts back, but has been unplaced on his most recent outing and returns after a 64-day absence; he has experience of today's distance and going, though 130 lb is a stern enough burden for a runner ranked mid-field on ratings.
Form last 620-130
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR96RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked well down the field on our figures, Team Player makes it hard to build a case, though he does bring distance and going experience to the table and returns from a 32-day break showing a recent second to his name.
Form last 6-11592
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
96SR95RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Landed a win and a second in recent starts but has been unplaced twice since, and a lengthy absence of 351 days is a real concern; has run over today's trip and going, and a trainer firing at 38% offers some encouragement, but the rust may tell.
Form last 621003-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR97RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
In The Breeze has won twice in his last five starts, including a victory last time out, and has experience of today's distance and going, but 73 days off the track raises a fitness query and 129 lb tests his resolve.
Form last 647-101
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR97RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 13 of 17 on our figures with a speed rating of 86, Boatswain is hard to fancy despite winning last time out, as the form either side of that success — a seventh and third in his two preceding starts, and more moderate efforts before that — suggests inconsistency; the trainer's 38% strike rate and experience over today's trip and going are the sole reasons for mild optimism.
Form last 68-0371
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR96RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Westminster Moon won three starts back but has been unplaced in both runs since, and ranked 14 of 17 on our figures he faces a stiff ask here; the fact he has run over today's trip and going at least brings some familiarity to the challenge.
Form last 6-07100
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR96RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Shrimp Shady faces a stiff ask at these weights, yet his recent form reads well with three wins in his last six starts, a runner-up finish last time out, and he has run over today's distance and going before.
Form last 6121612
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR94RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Kilmeaden shaped with promise when third three starts back and runner-up five starts back, and he returns on a quick 11-day turnaround with experience of today's trip and going — though he remains winless in recent starts and will need to find more to bridge that gap.
Form last 62-7359
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR99RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ghaiyya shaped well when second last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but sixth and eighth in the two starts before that give reason for caution; carrying 126 lb against a competitive field, she appeals as one likely to run her race without necessarily dominating.
Form last 6124862
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR97RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistently competitive without quite getting his head in front, Fireblade arrives on the back of a third last time out and a second two starts back, and has run over today's trip and going before, though winless in his last five starts remains the sticking point under 125 lb.
Form last 60-4423
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR97RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent threat who has finished third or better in three of his last five starts, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour; a trainer firing at 27% over the past fortnight adds significant support, though he remains yet to score and that final winning move is still the question mark.
Form last 642-363
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR98RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked 16 of 17 on our figures, Mountain Road is hard to fancy despite being lightly fit at 11 days between runs; he has run over today's trip and going, and was a winner two starts back, but his overall profile makes him a very difficult proposition here.
Form last 6/43513
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR94RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Valedictory owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/2John & Thady GosdenWilliam Buick
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Small Fry
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien✓ Value Signal
Prydwen
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · George Scott◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Valedictory (SR 104, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a meaningful margin and carries a competitive 9-5, giving it a weight advantage over Small Fry (SR 103, 9-6) despite near-identical ability ratings. The market has moved decisively in its favour — a 24% shortening from opening — which combined with GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good ground well. The Gosden/Buick combination strikes at 25%/20% respectively, one of the strongest connections pairings on the card, and a recent form line of -26115 shows progressive improvement culminating in back-to-back wins. The MarkMv:+3 rise is minimal and should not negate the form advantage.
Each-way alternative: Small Fry.
Main danger: Small Fry — Small Fry (SR 103, 5/2) is the joint-highest-rated runner and has market support (in 8%) from a powerful O'Brien yard; at just 1lb inferior SR to Valedictory with solid recent form showing a win two starts back, it represents the most credible alternative if the going suits better than GoingFit:- suggests.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Valedictory's HG code is 'b' (blinkers), suggesting headgear is being applied or changed today — horses trying blinkers for the first time or after a break can react unpredictably under pressure in a…
Small Fry (SR 103, 5/2 market leader) is only 1 SR point inferior yet is 2lbs better off at the weights at 9-6 vs 9-5, and its connections (O'Brien/McMonagle) are shortening into favouritism at 5/2 a…
The two wins in Valedictory's -26115 form may have come in weaker company; a MarkMv:+3 still represents a rise in the official mark, and at York in a 17-runner handicap the pace dynamics and draw wil…
Kirchner (SR 99, also 9/2, Ryan Moore) is closely matched on ratings and has not drifted — at identical odds with the highest-strike-rate jockey in the field, Kirchner represents a direct market riva…
ShortlistValedictory, Small Fry, Kirchner, Shrimp Shady