Stoneywell has run over today's trip and going before and, rated 63, shapes as a leading danger despite being winless in his last five starts; the main concern is a string of unplaced finishes that will need reversing here.
Form last 6-97780
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR63RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Big Apple Jack shaped with plenty of promise when a second three starts back, and he drops into this off an official mark of just 57 with our rating suggesting more ability than that; the risk is he returns only three days after his last outing.
Form last 6284254
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
64SR64RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Uniter has at least run over today's trip and returns on a quick 19-day turnaround from stall three carrying 133 lb, though a pulled-up effort among recent form makes it hard to build a case at this level.
Form last 6-867P8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR62RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last four starts, Danrana at least has experience of today's distance and going to call on, and 18 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh; the 132 lb burden from stall one is the obvious concern for a filly rated 59 officially.
Form last 648-05
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR61RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistently placed in recent starts, Hey Havana has been second three times in his last five outings and has run over today's trip and going, giving him solid grounding heading in; winless of late but his profile makes him the one to beat off 131 lb from stall 7.
Form last 6-25252
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR71RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Supreme Dancer has finished second twice in his last five starts and steps back up over a trip and going he has already experienced, making him a strong each-way threat off 130 lb from stall 2; the risk is that he remains winless in recent starts and must find improvement to get his head in front.
Form last 657-282
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
65SR64RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Our Nicola faces a stiff ask on return from a 218-day absence, though she has run over today's trip and going before and a third five starts back offers a rare crumb of encouragement.
Form last 6380-05
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR48RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked seventh of nine on our figures, Agric Ranger faces a stiff ask here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and comes back quickly enough at 12 days since his last outing.
Form last 6547570
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR56RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Big Apple Jack owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (36) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Michael & David EasterbyBilly Garritty
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Hey Havana
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/4 · Geoffrey Harker✓ Value Signal
Tago Mago
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Sam England◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Big Apple Jack (SR 64, 9/4) leads the field on ability and is the clear beneficiary of a massive 23% market move in — the strongest market signal by far in this nine-runner Class 6 field. Carrying 9-9, he holds a weight advantage over top-weight Stoneywell (9-12, SR 38) and has a consistent form line of 2-8-4-2-5-4 showing he competes at this level. The GoingFit:- is a concern on good ground, but his trainer Easterby (9% strike rate, large sample) and jockey Garritty (9%) are a workmanlike pairing, and the money flooding in at 9/4 suggests connections are confident despite the going concern. At this class level, his SR of 64 is comfortably the highest in the field and the market is backing that edge emphatically.
Each-way alternative: Hey Havana.
Main danger: Hey Havana — Hey Havana (SR 68, 5/2) is actually the SR leader at 68 — marginally above Big Apple Jack — carries a light 9-5, has moderate going and distance fit (GoingFit:~, DistFit:~), and a consistent placed form line of -25252; though drifting 8%, Connor Beasley is a 14% strike-rate jockey and the horse's consistency makes it the most likely alternative winner.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
GoingFit:- flags Big Apple Jack as unsuited to today's good ground — a confirmed going concern that connections themselves haven't resolved despite racing him just 3 days ago.
Hey Havana (SR:68, 5/2) actually holds a higher speed rating than Big Apple Jack (SR:64) and carries 4lb less at 9-5, making her a superior rival on both figures and weight — the primary analyst's 'h…
Supreme Dancer (SR:65, 4/1) also betters or matches Big Apple Jack on ability and is a 3yo receiving weight, with Fahey's yard running at 10% — a stronger trainer/jockey combo than Easterby/Garritty…
Big Apple Jack's form of 2-8-4-2-5-4 shows no win in this sequence and a recent 5th and 4th — he consistently threatens without converting, a pattern that undermines the market confidence narrative.
ShortlistBig Apple Jack, Hey Havana, Supreme Dancer