Consistent and battle-hardened, Christmas Day has won three times in his last five starts, with a victory two starts back sandwiched by a second last time out, and he has experience of both today's trip and going. The 52-day absence is the only query.
Form last 61-1312
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
128SR124RPR118OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 128 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Maltese Cross arrives on the back of four wins in his last five starts, with a runner-up finish two starts back the only blot on a sparkling recent record, and he has experience of today's distance and going. The 36-day absence is the one question mark.
Form last 61-1121
★AI Rating★★★★☆
124SR117RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and unplaced last time, Antigua faces a stiff ask, though he has run over today's distance and going before and a victory two starts back shows he retains ability.
Form last 60-4410
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR87RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 150/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Galiyan shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up last time out, and he was a winner three starts back, bringing solid recent form into this; he has run over today's trip and going, and 107-rated, he looks a genuine danger, though 41 days off the track is the one question to answer.
Form last 64162
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR107RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Third last time out and a runner-up three starts back, Pierre Bonnard arrives with solid recent form and handles today's distance and going, while our rating of 124 marks him as a genuine threat off 128 lb; the main risk is a 52-day absence since that encouraging effort.
Form last 61-7273
★AI Rating★★★★☆
123SR124RPR116OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Superior Choice arrives on the back of three consecutive wins, which is the obvious headline, but our rating of 101 ranks him fifth of six in this field, and a speed figure of 80 suggests the level of those victories may fall short of what is required here.
Form last 64-111
★AI Rating★★★★☆
111SR101RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Christmas Day owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (71) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/4A P O'BrienRyan Moore
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Maltese Cross
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/4 · William Haggas✓ Value Signal
Antigua
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
150/1 · A P O'Brien◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Christmas Day (SR 128, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries Ryan Moore — whose 27% career strike rate is comfortably the strongest jockey booking in the race, a signal A P O'Brien takes seriously when deploying three runners simultaneously. As the O'Brien yard's #1 (Moore invariably rides the yard's primary hope; Antigua gets Whelan at 8%, Pierre Bonnard gets Lordan at 10%), the market has also firmed 6% into the open price. The form string 1-1312 shows a horse that won its two most recent starts before this sequence and ran creditably at Group level in the 1312 pattern; at 9-7 it carries the same weight as Maltese Cross but holds a 4lb SR advantage over that rival. The MarkMv:+9 bump is a concern in a Group 2 but the Moore booking and inward market move indicate connections believe he's up to the task.
Each-way alternative: Maltese Cross.
Main danger: Maltese Cross — Maltese Cross (SR 124, 9/4) carries an identical 9-7 and has the most consistent recent form in the field with a 1-1121 string — four wins from five runs — though the 13% market drift is a genuine red flag that must be respected, possibly reflecting the 74-day absence or a question over today's trip.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 1-1312 shows Christmas Day finished 3rd and 2nd in its last two starts — it has not won since before this sequence, meaning it arrives on a losing run of two.
MarkMv:+9 means this is a notable class/mark rise; jumping up in grade at York's competitive Group 2 level off a mark already pushed up 9lb is a tangible negative against fresher rivals.
Maltese Cross (SR:124, form 1-1121) has won more recently, is co-priced at 9/4 yet has drifted out 13% — suggesting the market is not fleeing Christmas Day so much as backing Pierre Bonnard (11/4, SR…
Course record of W0P1 at York is thin; just one career run here with no win, while rivals including Superior Choice (form 4-111, 3 consecutive wins, fresh on 33 days) arrive in sharper recent form.
ShortlistChristmas Day, Maltese Cross, Pierre Bonnard, Superior Choice