Third last time out, and a third three starts back too, sandwiched around being brought down - still without a win in the last five starts. Race-fit after nine days and has run over today's going; carries 166 lb, rated 93 and ninth of 19.
Form last 68-63B3
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR—RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out; a win two starts back is the pick of the form, with a ninth, an unplaced effort and a seventh further back in the book. Has run over today's trip and going before, carrying 165 lb fresh from a 36-day break; rated 93 and eighth of 19.
Form last 670-913
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR—RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Recent starts read modestly - unplaced in three of the last five, either side of a pulled-up run and a fifth - yet still holds the standout figure on our book at 103. Main risk: 74 days off and a yard managing just 2 from 41 (5%) in the last fortnight.
Form last 605P0-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
73SR—RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
Unplaced last time out, but a win three starts back - flanked by a pair of fifths - is the form to focus on. Has run over today's trip and going before and returns from 69 days off carrying 164 lb; rated 98 and fourth of 19.
Form last 66515/0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
71SR—RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Pulled up last time out and again three starts back, either side of a fifth, with a ninth and sixth further back, still without a win in the last five. Fresh off just 12 days' rest and rated well above its 90 mark at 98, third of 19.
Form last 669P5P/
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
A second three starts back is the standout in a mixed book that also shows a sixth, an unplaced effort, a fall and an unseated exit. Fresh off just 19 days, with experience over today's trip and going, and rated 103 - the case for this being the pick here.
Form last 6UF2-06
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Runner-up last time out but the four starts before that read 6th, unplaced, 7th and 9th - a mixed book that leaves plenty to prove. Fresh off 17 days, with experience over today's trip and going, but only an 88 rating and eleventh of 19 here.
Form last 697-062
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out having finished eighth and unplaced in the two starts before that - a sparse book of just three starts, still without a win in that spell. Fresh off a 36-day break, with experience over today's trip and going, rated 93 and tenth of 19.
Form last 6083
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
A largely unplaced book - three such efforts either side of a sixth and a seventh - leaves little to shout about, still without a win in the last five starts. Fresh off 19 days, with experience over today's trip and going, rated 88 and twelfth of 19.
Form last 6070-60
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR—RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
A third five starts back is the high point of a book otherwise filled with a seventh, two unplaced efforts and a fall, and still without a win. Fresh off a 36-day break with experience over today's going, but rated only 75 and sixteenth of 19.
Form last 63F0-07
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR—RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Three thirds in the last five starts, broken up by one unseated exit, with an eighth also in the mix - still without a win. Race-fit after just 11 days with experience over today's going, rated 86 and thirteenth of 19.
Form last 6-833U3
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR—RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Yet to find the frame in its last four starts - two unplaced efforts followed by an eighth and a seventh - but lightly raced enough to leave room for improvement. Returns from 67 days off carrying 149 lb, an 80 official rating to work with.
Form last 678/0-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR—RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
A modest book showing an unplaced run, a sixth and a fifth in its last three starts, with two pulled-up efforts further back - still without a win in the last five. Fresh off 19 days with experience over today's going, rated 80 and fifteenth of 19.
Form last 6PP-560
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
47SR—RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two pulled-up efforts and a fall dominate a difficult book that also shows a ninth and a third, still without a win in the last five starts. Returns from 61 days off carrying 141 lb, rated 74 and seventeenth of 19.
Form last 6P39F-P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
56SR—RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
A consistently modest book - a pulled-up run, a seventh, eighth, ninth and an unplaced effort - leaves little in its favour, still without a win in the last five starts. Fresh off 19 days with experience over today's trip and going, rated 66 and eighteenth of 19.
Form last 609-87P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR—RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
An unseated exit and two unplaced efforts dominate the book, though a third five starts back hints at more. Fresh off 38 days with experience over today's trip and going, rated 11 lb above its 72 mark at 83, fourteenth of 19.
Form last 637-00U
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR—RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pulled up last time out and again three starts back, either side of a sixth, with a fourth four starts back - still without a win in the last four starts. A lengthy 242-day absence is the concern, but rated 15 lb above its 82 mark at 97, fifth of 19.
Form last 64P/6P-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR—RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Three pulled-up efforts dominate a difficult book that also shows a fourth and a sixth, still without a win in the last five starts. Returns from 100 days off with experience over today's trip and going, carrying 159 lb; rated 94 and seventh of 19.
Form last 66P4PP-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR—RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
A third four starts back and a second five starts back mark the high points of a book since cooled to two fifths and a seventh, without a win in the last five. Fresh off 56 days with experience over today's trip and going; rated 96, sixth of 19.
Form last 6237-55
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR—RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Smackwater Jack owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (66). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
15/2Mrs Denise FosterEthan O'Sullivan(7)
63%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Pourquoi Poi
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Paul W Flynn✓ Value Signal
Rushford
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Thomas R Hughes◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Strong Contender (SR:74, 17/2) has steamed in 51% in the market — the single most striking signal in this field — suggesting connections and punters have strong intelligence on this horse. At 10-10, it carries a notable weight advantage over the two top-rated horses: Pourquoi Poi (SR:87) is lugging 11-12 and Smackwater Jack (SR:86) carries 11-11, a difference of 16-17lbs that largely offsets the SR gap. J J Slevin (11% career SR, 417 runners) is a significant jockey upgrade and clearly the yard's chosen pilot over stablemate Ladiam who has no jockey listed. As Norman Lee's declared #1 with the most dramatic market move in the race and a youth advantage at age 5, this is the most compelling multi-signal case despite the trainer's modest 1% strike rate.
Each-way alternative: Granlahan.
Main danger: Pourquoi Poi — Pourquoi Poi holds the highest SR in the field at 87, Jack Kennedy (20%, 577 runners) is an elite booking, and despite the GoingFit:- flag and MarkMv:+10, it has the raw ability ceiling to overcome the weight if it handles the conditions.