Ballinrobe 19:39 21 Jul 2026
21 Jul 2026

Today Sweeney Oil Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

Sweeney Oil Handicap Hurdle (Div II) · 2m6f41y

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  • 19 declared
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AI rates Strong Contender Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 18 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Pourquoi Poi silks
Pourquoi Poi
Age 5 · 11-12
8-63B3
97
87
97OR
5
11-12
4/1
Third last time out, and a third three starts back too, sandwiched around being brought down - still without a win in the last five starts. Race-fit after nine days and has run over today's going; carries 166 lb, rated 93 and ninth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Smackwater Jack silks
Smackwater Jack
Age 12 · 11-11
70-913
96
86
96OR
12
11-11
15/2 6/1 7/1
Third last time out; a win two starts back is the pick of the form, with a ninth, an unplaced effort and a seventh further back in the book. Has run over today's trip and going before, carrying 165 lb fresh from a 36-day break; rated 93 and eighth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Fool Me Once silks
Fool Me Once
Age 6 · 11-10
05P0-0
95
73
95OR
6
11-10
11/1 10/1 11/1
Recent starts read modestly - unplaced in three of the last five, either side of a pulled-up run and a fifth - yet still holds the standout figure on our book at 103. Main risk: 74 days off and a yard managing just 2 from 41 (5%) in the last fortnight.
AI verdict

SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

4
Joshua Chamberlain silks
Joshua Chamberlain
Age 9 · 11-10
6515/0
95
71
95OR
9
11-10
16/1 16/1 14/1
Unplaced last time out, but a win three starts back - flanked by a pair of fifths - is the form to focus on. Has run over today's trip and going before and returns from 69 days off carrying 164 lb; rated 98 and fourth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

5
Rushford silks
Rushford
Age 7 · 11-5
69P5P/
90
58
90OR
7
11-5
50/1
Pulled up last time out and again three starts back, either side of a fifth, with a ninth and sixth further back, still without a win in the last five. Fresh off just 12 days' rest and rated well above its 90 mark at 98, third of 19.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

6
She'll Be Kept silks
She'll Be Kept
Age 6 · 11-5
UF2-06
90
62
90OR
6
11-5
18/1 11/1 18/1
A second three starts back is the standout in a mixed book that also shows a sixth, an unplaced effort, a fall and an unseated exit. Fresh off just 19 days, with experience over today's trip and going, and rated 103 - the case for this being the pick here.
AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

7
Whiskey Serenade silks
Whiskey Serenade
Age 6 · 11-5
97-062
90
80
90OR
6
11-5
15/2 13/2 7/1
Runner-up last time out but the four starts before that read 6th, unplaced, 7th and 9th - a mixed book that leaves plenty to prove. Fresh off 17 days, with experience over today's trip and going, but only an 88 rating and eleventh of 19 here.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Yolanda's Star silks
Yolanda's Star
Age 6 · 11-5
083
90
80
90OR
6
11-5
15/2 13/2 15/2
Third last time out having finished eighth and unplaced in the two starts before that - a sparse book of just three starts, still without a win in that spell. Fresh off a 36-day break, with experience over today's trip and going, rated 93 and tenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Stumblin In silks
Stumblin In
Age 7 · 11-2
070-60
87
72
87OR
7
11-2
12/1 10/1 12/1
A largely unplaced book - three such efforts either side of a sixth and a seventh - leaves little to shout about, still without a win in the last five starts. Fresh off 19 days, with experience over today's trip and going, rated 88 and twelfth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Strong Contender silks
Strong Contender
Age 5 · 10-10
3F0-07
81
74
81OR
5
10-10
17/2 16/1 15/2
A third five starts back is the high point of a book otherwise filled with a seventh, two unplaced efforts and a fall, and still without a win. Fresh off a 36-day break with experience over today's going, but rated only 75 and sixteenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Granlahan silks
Granlahan
Age 4 · 10-9
-833U3
85
80
85OR
4
10-9
8/1 13/2 15/2
Three thirds in the last five starts, broken up by one unseated exit, with an eighth also in the mix - still without a win. Race-fit after just 11 days with experience over today's going, rated 86 and thirteenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Jolly Potter silks
Jolly Potter
Age 7 · 10-9
78/0-0
80
59
80OR
7
10-9
22/1 25/1 22/1
Yet to find the frame in its last four starts - two unplaced efforts followed by an eighth and a seventh - but lightly raced enough to leave room for improvement. Returns from 67 days off carrying 149 lb, an 80 official rating to work with.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

13
Mollys Dolly silks
Mollys Dolly
Age 6 · 10-3
PP-560
74
47
74OR
6
10-3
28/1 25/1 28/1
A modest book showing an unplaced run, a sixth and a fifth in its last three starts, with two pulled-up efforts further back - still without a win in the last five. Fresh off 19 days with experience over today's going, rated 80 and fifteenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 47 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
La Tene silks
La Tene
Age 8 · 10-1
P39F-P
72
56
72OR
8
10-1
16/1 14/1 16/1
Two pulled-up efforts and a fall dominate a difficult book that also shows a ninth and a third, still without a win in the last five starts. Returns from 61 days off carrying 141 lb, rated 74 and seventeenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

15
Lady Aquarelle silks
Lady Aquarelle
Age 5 · 10-1
09-87P
72
64
72OR
5
10-1
14/1
A consistently modest book - a pulled-up run, a seventh, eighth, ninth and an unplaced effort - leaves little in its favour, still without a win in the last five starts. Fresh off 19 days with experience over today's trip and going, rated 66 and eighteenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

16
Toor Moon silks
Toor Moon
Age 9 · 10-1
37-00U
72
72
72OR
9
10-1
17/2 25/1 17/2
An unseated exit and two unplaced efforts dominate the book, though a third five starts back hints at more. Fresh off 38 days with experience over today's trip and going, rated 11 lb above its 72 mark at 83, fourteenth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

17
Leis Fein silks
Leis Fein
Age 11 · 10-11
4P/6P-
82
48
82OR
11
10-11
25/1
Pulled up last time out and again three starts back, either side of a sixth, with a fourth four starts back - still without a win in the last four starts. A lengthy 242-day absence is the concern, but rated 15 lb above its 82 mark at 97, fifth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

18
John Storey silks
John Storey
Age 8 · 11-5
6P4PP-
90
54
90OR
8
11-5
22/1 22/1 20/1
Three pulled-up efforts dominate a difficult book that also shows a fourth and a sixth, still without a win in the last five starts. Returns from 100 days off with experience over today's trip and going, carrying 159 lb; rated 94 and seventh of 19.
AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

19
Ladiam silks
Ladiam
Age 9 · 11-7
237-55
TBA
92
76
92OR
9
11-7
11/1 11/1 10/1
A third four starts back and a second five starts back mark the high points of a book since cooled to two fifths and a seventh, without a win in the last five. Fresh off 56 days with experience over today's trip and going; rated 96, sixth of 19.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Pourquoi Poi 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 Bet365
2 Smackwater Jack 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 Bet365
3 Fool Me Once 11/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 Coral
4 Joshua Chamberlain 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 16/1 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 16/1 Bet365
5 Rushford 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 Bet365
6 She'll Be Kept 18/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 Coral
7 Whiskey Serenade 15/2 open 8.00 15/2 open 7.50 15/2 open 7.50 7/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 7.50 15/2 Bet365
8 Yolanda's Star 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 Coral
9 Stumblin In 12/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 14/1 Coral
10 Strong Contender 17/2 open 17.00 17/2 open 19.00 17/2 open 19.00 15/2 open 19.00 15/2 open 19.00 17/2 Bet365
11 Granlahan 8/1 open 8.00 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 Bet365
12 Jolly Potter 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 Bet365
13 Mollys Dolly 28/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 26.00 28/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 Coral
14 La Tene 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 Coral
15 Lady Aquarelle 14/1 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 14/1 14/1 16/1 Coral
16 Toor Moon 17/2 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 10/1 open 26.00 10/1 open 26.00 11/1 Coral
17 Leis Fein 25/1 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 open 26.00 25/1 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 Coral
18 John Storey 22/1 22/1 22/1 20/1 open 23.00 22/1 22/1 Bet365
19 Ladiam 11/1 11/1 11/1 10/1 open 12.00 11/1 11/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Smackwater Jack

Speculative

Smackwater Jack owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (66). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

15/2 Mrs Denise Foster Ethan O'Sullivan(7)
63% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Pourquoi Poi

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · Paul W Flynn
✓ Value Signal

Rushford

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Thomas R Hughes
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
66 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +14.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
64 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Smackwater Jack
55.2 15/2
2 1. Pourquoi Poi
54.9 4/1
3 8. Yolanda's Star
54.7 15/2
4 7. Whiskey Serenade
51.2 15/2
5 16. Toor Moon
51.1 17/2
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Strong Contender
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 5 · 11-12
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 87 🐾

SR 87 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 12 · 11-11
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 6 · 11-5
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 6 · 11-5
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 4 · 10-9
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 5 · 10-10
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

16
Age 9 · 10-1
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 6 · 11-10
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

19
Age 9 · 11-7
11/1
J: TBA
T: Norman Lee
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 7 · 11-2
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

15
Age 5 · 10-1
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 9 · 11-10
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

14
Age 8 · 10-1
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

6
Age 6 · 11-5
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 62 🐾

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Strong Contender
Confidence: Speculative

Strong Contender (SR:74, 17/2) has steamed in 51% in the market — the single most striking signal in this field — suggesting connections and punters have strong intelligence on this horse. At 10-10, it carries a notable weight advantage over the two top-rated horses: Pourquoi Poi (SR:87) is lugging 11-12 and Smackwater Jack (SR:86) carries 11-11, a difference of 16-17lbs that largely offsets the SR gap. J J Slevin (11% career SR, 417 runners) is a significant jockey upgrade and clearly the yard's chosen pilot over stablemate Ladiam who has no jockey listed. As Norman Lee's declared #1 with the most dramatic market move in the race and a youth advantage at age 5, this is the most compelling multi-signal case despite the trainer's modest 1% strike rate. Each-way alternative: Granlahan. Main danger: Pourquoi Poi — Pourquoi Poi holds the highest SR in the field at 87, Jack Kennedy (20%, 577 runners) is an elite booking, and despite the GoingFit:- flag and MarkMv:+10, it has the raw ability ceiling to overcome the weight if it handles the conditions.

Shortlist Strong Contender, Pourquoi Poi, Granlahan, Toor Moon, Whiskey Serenade
Each-way: Granlahan Danger: Pourquoi Poi

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m6f41y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
19 Confirmed runners
Ballinrobe Track and setting