Ballinrobe 18:10 RESULTED
20 Jul 2026

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Download The Tote App Handicap · 1m1f135y

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Confirmed
  1. Winner Nephin Mountain (IRE) Terry Casey · Michael Mulvany
    11/2
  2. 12/1
  3. 5/6F
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Cartmel

13:42–16:47 · 6 races

Ayr

14:00–17:00 · 7 races

Ballinrobe

17:10–20:10 · 7 races

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17:50–20:50 · 7 races

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18:30–21:00 · 6 races

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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 15 hours, 26 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Werifesteria silks
Werifesteria
Age 3 · 10-0
787
66
46
66OR
3
10-0
16/1 16/1 14/1
Well held in each of her last three starts (7th, 8th, 7th) and without a win in that time. She has run over today's going before, but a yard managing just 0/27 in the last fortnight and a rating that ranks her only 11th of 13 leave her hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Coolshine silks
Coolshine
Age 3 · 9-12
900
64
33
64OR
3
9-12
40/1 28/1 33/1
Unplaced in his last two starts and a ninth three starts back, he remains without a win in that spell. He has run over today's going before, and ranked 7th of 13 on our figures, he looks more of a make-up-the-numbers type than a genuine threat.
AI verdict

SR 33 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

3
John La Bear silks
John La Bear
Age 3 · 9-12
0441-7
64
46
64OR
3
9-12
SP FCST 11/2
Below-par when seventh last time out, but that followed a win two starts back and a pair of fourths before it — a genuinely progressive profile. He has run over today's distance and going before, and that combination makes him our confident pick.
AI verdict

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.

4
Divine Believer silks
Divine Believer
Age 3 · 9-11
00778
63
54
63OR
3
9-11
13/2 8/1 6/1
A rating that ranks her 4th of 13 gives her claims among the leading dangers, and she has run over today's going before. But her recent form is modest — 8th, 7th and 7th, with two unplaced efforts before that — leaving her without a win after a 71-day break.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Mare Crisium silks
Mare Crisium
Age 3 · 9-11
6859
63
39
63OR
3
9-11
25/1 18/1 22/1
Modest recent form reads 9th, 5th, 8th and 6th, leaving her without a win in that spell, though a fifth two starts back shows she can be competitive. She is out again quickly, just 12 days since her last run, but a rating that ranks her only 9th of 13 caps her claims.
AI verdict

SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

6
Private Larry silks
Private Larry
Age 3 · 9-11
000881
63
66
63OR
3
9-11
7/2 5/2 7/2
He won last time out, bouncing back from a spell of modest efforts (8th, 8th and three unplaced runs before that), and he's quick to follow up just three days later. He has run over today's distance and going before, and a rating that ranks him 5th of 13 makes him respected in this company.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Aquilla Star silks
Aquilla Star
Age 3 · 9-10
0072-7
62
49
62OR
3
9-10
10/1 FCST 9/1
Rated 3rd of 13, she's among the leading dangers, with a runner-up effort two starts back showing she has the class to figure. She has run over today's distance before, but remains without a win in that spell, and her trainer is just 0/28 in the last fortnight.
AI verdict

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

8
Spring Sprinter silks
Spring Sprinter
Age 3 · 9-9
760
61
37
61OR
3
9-9
22/1 22/1 20/1
Unplaced last time out and beaten into 6th and 7th before that, she remains without a win in her last three starts. She has run over today's distance and going before, and a rating that ranks her 8th of 13 puts her firmly in the pack rather than among the leading players.
AI verdict

SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

9
Nephin Mountain silks
Nephin Mountain
Age 3 · 8-13
048405
51
55
51OR
3
8-13
11/2 15/2 9/2
Fifth last time out, with two fourth finishes among his last six starts, he remains without a win in that run, though he is quick back into action just three days later. He has run over today's distance and going before, and a rating that ranks him 6th of 13 keeps him firmly involved.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Curious Jane silks
Curious Jane
Age 3 · 8-10
0-009
48
44
48OR
3
8-10
11/1
A ninth and three further unplaced efforts make up her recent form, leaving her without a win in that spell. She has run over today's distance before, but a rating that ranks her only 12th of 13 leaves her hard to fancy from this field.
AI verdict

SR 44 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Connova silks
Connova
Age 3 · 8-7
600-43
45
57
45OR
3
8-7
13/8 2/1 5/4
Top of our ratings, she was third last time out, and fourth two starts back, useful recent form despite being without a win in that time. She has run over today's distance and going before, and looks the biggest threat in this field on pure figures.
AI verdict

SR 57 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Six Wings silks
Six Wings
Age 3 · 8-7
096709
45
32
45OR
3
8-7
SP 14/1 12/1
Well beaten in each of her last six starts — 9th, unplaced, 7th, 6th, 9th and unplaced — and still without a win in that run. She has run over today's going before, but ranked bottom of the field on our figures, she's hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.

13
Music And Song silks
Music And Song
Age 3 · 8-7
996045
40
22
40OR
3
8-7
50/1 FCST 40/1
A modest recent record of 5th, 4th, unplaced, 6th, 9th and 9th leaves her without a win in her last six starts. She has run over today's distance and going before, but a rating that ranks her only 10th of 13 makes her hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Werifesteria 16/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 Bet365
2 Coolshine 40/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 Bet365
3 John La Bear 13/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 13/2 Bet365
4 Divine Believer 13/2 open 10.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 13/2 Bet365
5 Mare Crisium 25/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 Bet365
6 Private Larry 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 open 3.50 7/2 open 3.50 4/1 open 3.50 4/1 open 3.50 4/1 William Hill
7 Aquilla Star 10/1 9/1 9/1 10/1 open 10.00 9/1 10/1 Bet365
8 Spring Sprinter 22/1 open 26.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 22/1 20/1 open 23.00 22/1 Bet365
9 Nephin Mountain 11/2 open 9.50 9/2 open 8.50 9/2 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 11/2 Bet365
10 Curious Jane 11/1 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 12/1 William Hill
11 Connova 13/8 open 3.25 5/4 open 3.00 5/4 open 3.00 6/4 open 3.00 5/4 open 3.00 13/8 Bet365
12 Six Wings 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 Bet365
13 Music And Song 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 40/1 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Private Larry

Speculative

Private Larry owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Alan McIntyre Gavin Ryan
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Connova

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/8 · Ms Sheila Lavery
✓ Value Signal

Music And Song

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Thomas Dowling
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Private Larry
49.2 7/2
2 11. Connova
48.5 13/8
3 9. Nephin Mountain
48.2 11/2
4 4. Divine Believer
44.7 13/2
5 7. Aquilla Star
43.9 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Connova
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

11
Age 3 · 8-7
13/8
★★★☆☆ SR 57 🐾

SR 57 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-11
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 8-13
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-11
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾

SR 54 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-10
10/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 49 🐾

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

10
Age 3 · 8-10
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 44 🐾

SR 44 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 3 · 10-0
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 46 🐾

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Connova
Confidence: Medium

Connova (SR:57, 13/8) is the top-rated runner in this field and carries a favourable 8-7, giving it a meaningful weight advantage over rivals such as Divine Believer (9-11) and Private Larry (9-11). The market has been backing it strongly — Mkt:in19% — and the three-star AI probability reflects genuine confidence not matched elsewhere. Course:W0P1 shows familiarity with Ballinrobe, and the form line 600-43 shows a progressive arc with a place last time out suggesting it is heading in the right direction. The trainer's low strike rate (1%) is a concern but the Chris Hayes booking (12%, 299 rides) suggests connections are treating this as their best shot. Each-way alternative: Nephin Mountain. Main danger: Nephin Mountain — Nephin Mountain (SR:55, 11/2) has steamed in 33% in the market — the most significant move in the entire field — carries a low 8-13 and has Michael Mulvany at a solid 12% strike rate, suggesting connections know something on this quick turnaround.

Shortlist Connova, Nephin Mountain, Private Larry, Divine Believer
Each-way: Nephin Mountain Danger: Nephin Mountain

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m1f135y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Ballinrobe Track and setting