Southwell (AW) 20:00 RESULTED
Class 4 6 Oct 2026

Tuesday 6 October bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) · 1m4f14y

Official Result

bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Cliff Danger (GB) Rob Hornby · Tom Ellis
    3/1
  2. 4/1
  3. 14/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

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Southwell (AW)

16:55–20:30 · 8 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Nochebuena silks
Nochebuena
Age 3 · 9-12
4-2129
87
88
81
3
9-12
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 11/4 10/3
Nochebuena arrives with a winner three starts back and a second two starts back, plus a fair 25-day gap and experience of today's trip, making her a leading danger on 138 lb. The main risk is a disappointing ninth last time out, which she needs to bounce back from.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Affettuoso silks
Affettuoso
Age 3 · 9-9
52-51
84
88
71
3
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
11/10 Evs 11/10
Affettuoso won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but a fifth two starts back and our bottom-ranked 71 rating make him hard to fancy off 135 lb and an official 84. Fresh enough after 24 days, he has a speed rating of 76.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Without Compromise silks
Without Compromise
Age 5 · 9-8
538267
77
72
80
5
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 9/1 14/1
Without Compromise is winless in his last six, with a seventh last time out and a sixth before that, so he is hard to fancy; he has run over today's trip and going, and a second three starts back shows some ability. Ranked sixth of seven on our figures, he looks an outsider carrying 134 lb.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Spirit of Jura silks
Spirit of Jura
Age 4 · 9-8
752536
77
55
82
4
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 12/1 20/1
Top-rated in the field on our figures at 82, she has run over today's trip and going and was third two starts back, with a second four runs ago. The risk is a sixth last time out and no win in her last six, plus 134 lb to carry after 34 days off.
AI verdict

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

5
Now Maybe silks
Now Maybe
Age 3 · 9-7
2-3625
82
62
82
3
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 10/1 12/1
Now Maybe has been in the frame in three of his last five, including a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Fitness after 31 days off is the one question, while a fifth last time out leaves him yet to win in that spell.
AI verdict

SR 62 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Sassicaia silks
Sassicaia
Age 3 · 9-2
1-4353
77
80
81
3
9-2
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 FCST 11/2
Sassicaia was third last time out and has been consistent since a win five starts back, with a third and a fourth in that run, and he has run on today's going before. Against that, he's had 68 days off and carries 128 lb, while our rating of 81 ranks him only fourth of seven.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Cliff Danger silks
Cliff Danger
Age 3 · 9-1
647914
76
88
80
3
9-1
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 9/2 5/2
Cliff Danger is our selection on overall profile: a fourth last time out just 14 days ago, and a winner two starts back, with experience of both today's trip and the going. His 127 lb looks manageable, though the form before that win was patchy.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Nochebuena 4/1 open 3.75 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 10/3 open 4.50 4/1 Bet365
2 Affettuoso 11/10 open 2.50 11/10 open 2.38 11/10 open 2.38 11/10 open 2.38 6/5 open 2.38 11/10 open 2.00 6/5 William Hill
3 Without Compromise 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 Bet365
4 Spirit of Jura 22/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 22/1 Bet365
5 Now Maybe 12/1 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 Bet365
6 Sassicaia 6/1 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 open 9.50 6/1 Bet365
7 Cliff Danger 10/3 open 6.50 3/1 open 6.50 3/1 open 6.50 3/1 open 6.50 3/1 open 6.50 5/2 open 5.50 10/3 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Cliff Danger

Speculative

Cliff Danger owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

10/3 Tom Ellis Rob Hornby
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Affettuoso

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/10 · Roger Varian
✓ Value Signal

Spirit of Jura

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Charlie Johnston
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
85 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Cliff Danger
55.8 10/3
2 2. Affettuoso
54.0 11/10
3 1. Nochebuena
52.8 4/1
4 6. Sassicaia
50.9 6/1
5 3. Without Compromise
44.1 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Affettuoso
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 3 · 9-9
11/10
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-1
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 3 · 9-12
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-2
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-7
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 62 🐾 —

SR 62 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 5 · 9-8
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾 —

SR 72 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Affettuoso
Confidence: Speculative

Affettuoso (SR 88, 11/10) shares the top SR in the field but carries 9-9 — a 3lb advantage over joint-top-rated Nochebuena (9-12) and 8lb over Cliff Danger (9-1), making the weight profile favourable despite the MarkMv:+5 concern. Roger Varian's 20% strike rate is the best trainer figure in the race, and a 12% market move inward is meaningful at a price that is already short — the money is reinforcing the form case, not speculating. The form string 52-51 shows a consistent horse that won last time out dropping a class, and the class relief (ClassMv:↓1) gives genuine grounds to expect another forward showing. The main uncertainty is DistFit:? — this trip is unproven — but at 3 years old with a progressive profile, the step to 1m4f is a logical move that Varian's stable regularly executes well. Each-way alternative: Cliff Danger. Main danger: Cliff Danger — Cliff Danger (SR 88, 4/1) has a 21% market inward move, proven course form (W1P1 at Southwell), and carries just 9-1 — the lightest weight among the three joint-top-rated horses — giving it a meaningful pounds advantage if the class drop delivers on its promise.

Case against 4 clamped
  • DistFit:? is a genuine red flag at 1m4f on Fibresand — Southwell's stamina-sapping surface often exposes horses trying this trip for the first time, and a short-priced favourite found out late would…
  • MarkMv:+5 means the official assessor has already flagged Affettuoso as 5lb well-in on latest rating — if the handicapper is ahead of the market here, the 11/10 price offers little margin for error.
  • Jockey Ray Dawson (14% strike rate, 1240 rides) is notably weaker than the trainer's 20% strike rate suggests — Varian's top horses tend to go out with stronger bookings; this pairing hints at stable…
  • Cliff Danger (SR:88, 4/1) is fresher on 14 days, has course form W1P1 at Southwell, and is also showing a 21% market move in — a horse with proven Fibresand course credentials at bigger odds represen…
Shortlist Affettuoso, Cliff Danger, Sassicaia
Each-way: Cliff Danger Danger: Cliff Danger

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m4f14y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade