Southwell (AW) 19:00 RESULTED
Class 5 6 Oct 2026

Tuesday 6 October bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap Stakes

bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap Stakes · 0m6f16y

Official Result

bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Overbudget (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Michael Appleby
    11/1
  2. 15/2
  3. 2/1F
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16:55–20:30 · 8 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Startled Lady silks
Startled Lady Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-9
531833
68
—
68OR
3
9-9
—
—
SP
—
1
All Good silks
All Good
Age 3 · 9-10
87-12
69
48
70
3
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
25/1 10/1 25/1
Runner-up last time out and a winner two starts back, she's in good recent order, and has run over today's trip and going before, but the yard is out of form at 1/25, and she carries 136 lb from stall 12. Our rating of 70 ranks her seventh of eleven.
AI verdict

SR 48 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Keldeo silks
Keldeo
Age 5 · 9-9
442949
67
63
75
5
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 8/1 14/1
Keldeo has made the frame once in her recent runs, a second four starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 75 ranks her second of 11. The main risk is a ninth last time out, and she remains winless in her last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Clementines Star silks
Clementines Star
Age 3 · 9-9
-32130
68
59
72
3
9-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
9/1 10/1 15/2
Clementines Star has been in the frame in four of her last five starts, including a win three starts back, but she was unplaced last time out and returns after 32 days. She has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 72 ranks her fifth of eleven, so she looks a midfield sort carrying 135 lb from stall 11.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

5
Black Orchid silks
Black Orchid
Age 3 · 9-8
2222
67
67
63
3
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
17/2 7/2 7/1
Four seconds in her last four starts show she's consistent, but Black Orchid is yet to win and has finished second every time, which makes her hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, yet 134 lb from stall two and our 63 rating, ranked eleventh of eleven, leave plenty to find.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Storm Esme silks
Storm Esme
Age 3 · 9-8
085841
67
73
72
3
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/1 4/1
Storm Esme won last time out and returns after 31 days, having run over today's trip and on this going before; she is our pick on that profile, though her fourth, eighth and fifth before that show consistency has been an issue. Drawn three, she carries 134 lb.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Remi Mae silks
Remi Mae
Age 3 · 9-8
03D310
67
60
66
3
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 17/2 12/1
Remi Mae was unplaced last time out after winning two starts back, and her thirds three and five starts back are the only other podium finishes in a patchy recent run, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, but 134 lb from stall six and a ranking of ninth of 11 on our figures leave plenty to do.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Insuspense silks
Insuspense
Age 4 · 9-8
227531
66
80
73
4
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
2/1 10/3 21/13
Won last time out and fresh from just 19 days ago, Insuspense has run over today's trip and on this going, while our rating of 73 ranks her third of 11 and makes her a leading danger from stall five. The main risk is the 134 lb she carries, with a third two starts back and two seconds five and six starts back her only other top-three finishes in that spell.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Moira Express silks
Moira Express
Age 3 · 9-8
74325-
67
46
69
3
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 18/1 33/1
Yet to win in her last five, Moira Express has been consistent enough, with a second two starts back and a third three starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going, but a 315-day absence and a fifth last time out leave questions about her fitness.
AI verdict

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

10
Fantasy Obsessor silks
Fantasy Obsessor
Age 4 · 9-4
252752
62
73
71
4
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 FCST 3/1
Fantasy Obsessor was second last time out and has finished runner-up in three of her last six, yet she is still winless in that spell, and she carries 130 lb from draw 8. She has run over today's trip and going, while our 71 rating, six of 11, points to a midfield chance after 36 days off.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Daytona Lady silks
Daytona Lady
Age 6 · 9-4
772853
62
63
76
6
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 10/1 14/1
Daytona Lady steps up after a third last time out just 15 days ago, and she has run over today's trip and on this going before; our top-rated runner at 76, she drops in off an official mark of 62. The risk is she is winless in her last six, with a seventh and an eighth in that spell.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Overbudget silks
Overbudget
Age 3 · 9-2
376981
61
56
65
3
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 7/1 12/1
Overbudget won last time out, but that sits among a run of eighth, ninth, sixth and seventh finishes before it, which makes her hard to trust again at 128 lb. She has run over today's trip and going and is fresh from 14 days ago, though our rating of 64 ranks her tenth of eleven.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Startled Lady — — — — — — —
1 All Good 25/1 open 11.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 Bet365
2 Keldeo 16/1 open 9.00 20/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 11.00 18/1 open 10.00 20/1 Paddy Power
4 Clementines Star 9/1 open 12.00 17/2 open 11.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 15.00 15/2 open 13.00 9/1 Bet365
5 Black Orchid 17/2 open 4.50 9/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 5.00 17/2 open 5.50 8/1 open 5.00 9/1 Paddy Power
6 Storm Esme 5/1 open 7.50 11/2 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 6.50 11/2 Paddy Power
7 Remi Mae 18/1 open 9.50 12/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 11.00 18/1 Bet365
8 Insuspense 2/1 open 5.50 2/1 open 5.00 13/8 open 4.33 13/8 open 4.33 2/1 open 4.50 9/4 open 4.50 9/4 Betfred
9 Moira Express 66/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 23.00 66/1 Bet365
10 Fantasy Obsessor 7/2 open 9.50 7/2 open 6.00 3/1 3/1 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 Bet365
11 Daytona Lady 16/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 Bet365
12 Overbudget 14/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 8.50 14/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Fantasy Obsessor

Speculative

Fantasy Obsessor owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Michael Appleby Ray Dawson
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Insuspense

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

2/1 · Ross Burdon
✓ Value Signal

Moira Express

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Simon Whitaker
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 10. Fantasy Obsessor
52.8 7/2
2 8. Insuspense
52.7 2/1
3 5. Black Orchid
47.1 17/2
4 6. Storm Esme
46.9 5/1
5 4. Clementines Star
41.5 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Insuspense
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 4 · 9-8
2/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 4 · 9-4
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-8
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-8
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-9
9/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

12
Age 3 · 9-2
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾 —

SR 56 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 5 · 9-9
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 6 · 9-4
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-8
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾 —

SR 60 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Insuspense
Confidence: Medium

Insuspense (SR 80, 2/1) is the clear form pick here — the highest-rated runner in the field by a meaningful margin and carrying only 9-8 despite that superiority. The market has shortened 36% since opening, the strongest steaming signal in the race, pointing to informed confidence. Course record of W1P3 at Southwell is a significant advantage on an AW specialist track, and DistFit:+ plus GoingFit:+ confirm the horse handles today's conditions. Last-time-out winner (form ending '1') stepping up one class with MarkMv:+5 is the one note of caution, but the SR advantage over the next-best runners (Storm Esme and Fantasy Obsessor both SR 73, seven points back) is wide enough to absorb that penalty. Each-way alternative: Storm Esme. Main danger: Fantasy Obsessor — Fantasy Obsessor (SR 73, 10/3) has steamed in 18%, holds a 4lb weight advantage over Insuspense at 9-4, carries strong Course:W1P3 form at Southwell, and is the Appleby yard's designated number one runner — if the market has underestimated the weight pull, this is the horse most capable of reversing the SR gap.

Case against 4 clamped
  • MarkMv:+5 means Insuspense is stepping up in class off a last-time-out win — handicappers have already taken 5lb, and this higher grade may be the ceiling that exposes limitations.
  • Trainer Ross Burdon strikes at only 12% from a yard of just 165 runners — small operation with limited firepower, and jockey William Carver hits only 10% — neither inspiring confidence at the sharp e…
  • HG:t (tongue-tie applied) flags a potential management issue; if this is a first-time application it can be unsettling, and it suggests the horse has had reasons to mask breathing or behaviour concer…
  • Fantasy Obsessor (SR 73, 10/3) shares the same Course:W1P3 record, is in a Appleby yard flagged Stable:1 (hot stable form), gets 4lb in hand at the weights (9-4 vs 9-8), and is still drifting only mo…
Shortlist Insuspense, Storm Esme, Fantasy Obsessor
Each-way: Storm Esme Danger: Fantasy Obsessor

🗺 The Course Class 5

0m6f16y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade