Roi de Coeur arrives on the back of a win two starts ago and a close second last time out, with experience over today's trip and a lively 77 rating heading the field; the 135 lb burden is the one question, but his recent form makes him the one to beat.
Form last 676512
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mojito won three starts back but has been well beaten in her two subsequent runs, and 135 lb is a stiff burden to overcome; she has run over today's trip and going before, yet her recent consistency leaves something to be desired.
Form last 660-107
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR74RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Twice placed in her last five starts — second last time out and a second three starts back — Something Coming brings strong each-way claims back from a 42-day break, with experience of today's trip and going working in her favour; the main risk is she's yet to score.
Form last 63826-2
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR76RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked 12th of 14 on our figures, Santiago Boy has questions to answer despite returning after 35 days off with distance and going experience to call on; the 135 lb burden from stall 14 only adds to his problems.
Form last 67548
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR63RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Placed twice in his last four starts but yet to win, Shadowmere faces a stiff ask on 134 lb from stall seven after 79 days away; he has run over today's trip before, though his speed rating of 65 gives him plenty to find on the figures.
Form last 6835-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR70RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts, Battosai at least showed a placed effort two runs back and has experience over today's trip, but a burden of 133 lb is a stiff ask, and he'll need to find more from stall one to make his presence felt.
Form last 6524535
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR73RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Seu Jo has been largely out of the frame in his last four starts, making him hard to fancy on recent evidence, though a win five starts back shows he can find the line. Has distance and going experience, but his figures leave him well held on these terms.
Form last 6610070
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR64RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Winless in his last five starts, Ballybunion did post back-to-back seconds two and three starts back, but a sixth last time out and a struggling trainer strike-rate of just 4% over the past fortnight are harder to ignore; he has experience over today's trip and carries 132 lb from stall three.
Form last 6722-06
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR72RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Coxy's Star faces a stiff ask here; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 36 days between runs suggests she returns fresh, but little else in this profile invites confidence.
Form last 60-54
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR58RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Berkshire Boom has shown real consistency in placing, finishing second and third in recent starts, and returns here on a quick 17-day turnaround looking fit; he has run over today's trip and our rating puts him second in the field. The risk is he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 6-76325
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR77RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Alkumatic Jo Jo has run over today's trip and going, and her rating of 75 — well clear of her official mark — suggests she's been underestimated; the concern is that she's been winless in her last six starts, with a second four runs back her only recent highlight.
Form last 6562657
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR75RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fallacious Promise showed his quality when winning two starts back, though a runner-up finish last time out and a nine in six recent starts underlines the inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going, but stall 10 and 128 lb are factors to weigh.
Form last 6922312
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
81SR69RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last four starts and returning after 143 days off, Athena's War faces a stiff task ranked 13 of 14 on our figures, though she has run over today's trip and drawn stall four.
Form last 6654-7
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR60RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Winless in her last five starts with a run of three consecutive ninths, Mehmas Engine does at least bring distance and going experience to this, though drawn 13 and carrying 127 lb she faces a stiff task from midfield on her return after 42 days.
Form last 633999
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR66RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Fallacious Promise owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (45) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4John ButlerLuke Morris
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Ballybunion
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Michael Bell✓ Value Signal
Battosai
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Jack Morland◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Fallacious Promise leads the field on SR (81) and carries only 9-2, giving a meaningful weight edge over Roi de Coeur (SR 77, 9-9) and Ballybunion (SR 75, 9-6). The form string 922312 shows a consistent progression to a recent second, and two prior places at Kempton (Course:W0P2) confirm track familiarity on this all-weather surface. John Butler runs at 14% and Luke Morris at 11% are reliable connections, and the 5/2 market position reflects genuine confidence despite the step up in class (ClassMv:↑1). The +10 mark rise is the one concern, but the SR advantage and weight allowance offset that risk materially.
Each-way alternative: Shadowmere.
Main danger: Ballybunion — Ballybunion (SR 75, 10/3 favourite, market shortened 8%) is the joint-highest-rated runner in realistic contention and carries only 9-6, with Callum Shepherd — a 14% strike-rate jockey — booked and money arriving late, suggesting connections expect a bold run on return.
ShortlistFallacious Promise, Roi de Coeur, Shadowmere, Ballybunion