Catton Lady has finished second twice in her last five starts and steps up as a leading contender here, with experience of today's trip and going working in her favour from stall five at 142 lb. Winless in that recent spell, consistency is the slight concern.
Form last 6782-52
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR69RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Gressington carries a useful 7 lb pull over his official mark and rates the one to beat on our figures, having run over today's trip and going before; winless in his last six starts, he'll need to find improvement, but 19 days between runs leaves him fresh enough to deliver it from stall 12.
Form last 6080747
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR70RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.
Winless in his last six starts, with an eighth last time out and a fifth three starts back representing his better recent efforts, Pal Joey faces an uphill task from stall nine carrying 140 lb off an official mark of 63, though the experience over today's trip and going at least removes one unknown.
Form last 6700598
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR65RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Kelpie Grey has run over today's trip and going, and his rating of 67 gives him solid claims at this level from stall two; yet winless in his last six starts and back just two days ago with a struggling trainer, he needs to find significant improvement.
Form last 6586068
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR67RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Novak arrives here winless in his last six starts, though a third three starts back and a second four starts back hint at some ability; yet back-to-back fourths most recently suggest he finds winning hard to come by, and 138 lb from stall 11 adds no favours.
Form last 6852344
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR66RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, with a sequence of mid-to-rear finishes, Stoneywell is hard to fancy at the weights carrying 137 lb from stall 8; he has run over today's trip and going before, but our figures rank him tenth of thirteen.
Form last 68-9778
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR58RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Tropez Power has run over today's trip and going and our rating of 67 puts him ahead of his official mark, suggesting he's better than his recent winless sequence implies; the risk is that his last five outings have all been outside the frame.
Form last 66-6889
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR67RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Yaaser is winless in his last six starts and was beaten into eighth last time out just two days ago, leaving fitness and form both questionable; he has run over today's trip and going, and stall one is his draw, but the trainer's current 4% strike rate offers little encouragement.
Form last 6595338
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR65RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked near the foot of our figures, Keep Me Stable faces a stiff task here; second last time out offers some encouragement, but three days between runs and 135 lb make her hard to fancy.
Form last 63-7082
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR58RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, Carmel Valley nevertheless shows consistency with a second and a third in recent outings; she has run over today's trip and going before, but carrying 134 lb from stall seven, a step up in class on her official mark of 63 makes the task demanding.
Form last 6-76723
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR63RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Black Rock Beauty won three starts back but has since finished sixth and third in recent starts, so his consistency is a question mark; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 134 lb from stall six, and a rating of 62 leaves him with plenty to find on the pick of these.
Form last 6-74136
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR62RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Albeyours has won once in her last five starts, with a seventh last time out doing little to inspire confidence, and ranked 12 of 13 on our figures she faces a stiff task here; experience over today's trip and going at least means conditions aren't new to her.
Form last 625-317
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
60SR54RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last four starts, with two unplaced efforts among them, Joshuas Dream is ranked bottom of these on our figures and his trainer is badly out of form at 4% over the past fortnight — at least he has run over today's trip and going before, and 14 days between runs suggests he's ready.
Form last 6/08-09
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR51RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Carmel Valley owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Katie ScottJason Hart
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Novak
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · Iain Jardine✓ Value Signal
Stoneywell
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Steph Hollinshead◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Carmel Valley (SR:69, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and drops two class tiers, a significant relief that gives her the best chance of dominating this Class 6 company. Jason Hart (14% strike rate, 1,290 career runners) is a meaningful booking upgrade for Katie Scott's yard, and Course:W0P2 at Ayr confirms she handles the track. DistFit:~ at 7f50y is the one caveat, but dropping two classes with the field's top SR and an experienced conditional-calibre jockey makes her the most compelling selection. The 7/2 market price is reasonable and reflects genuine confidence without being too short to take.
Each-way alternative: Albeyours.
Main danger: Novak — Novak (SR:68, 9/2) is only 1lb below Carmel Valley's SR, has steamed in 16% in the market, and Iain Jardine's yard runs at 13% — the market support here is genuine and he's the horse most likely to be peaking fitness-wise off a 14-day break.
ShortlistCarmel Valley, Novak, Albeyours, Black Rock Beauty