Kalsman was third last time out but a winner four starts back, and he does bring experience over today's trip and going. Fifty-seven days off the track raises a fitness query, and his 168 lb burden is a significant ask for a horse ranked fifth of twelve.
Form last 661-903
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
77SR95RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Pralognan won three starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going, making him a clear danger — the chief concern is that 255 days off the track leaves his fitness an open question.
Form last 65/135-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR99RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Tropical Twist arrives on the back of a win last time out and has experience of both today's trip and going, giving her solid claims here; the chief concern is a trainer firing at just 5% in recent weeks.
Form last 6FP-541
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR97RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
A second three starts back highlights Augusta George's class, and he has experience over today's trip and going — our rating of 106 makes him the one to beat in this field. Yet to score in recent starts and a 226-day absence are the only reservations.
Form last 6826/0-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
66SR106RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at -.
Winless in his last five starts, Parkgarve does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and 23 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; the concern is a top weight of 159 lb, which gives his rivals a handy pull.
Form last 60-8654
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR94RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, Barrogstown Girl does bring distance and going experience to the table, but a run just two days ago raises obvious freshness concerns; second two starts back offers a glimmer, though her overall profile here leaves her with plenty to prove carrying 158 lb.
Form last 606-820
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR88RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Leitzel showed a flash of ability when finishing third five starts back, and she has experience of today's trip and conditions — but winless in her last five starts and returning after 97 days off, there are questions about whether that form has been maintained.
Form last 63000-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR96RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in his last five starts, with an unplaced effort 28 days ago the latest in a patchy sequence, Fine Print faces a stiff task here. He has run over today's trip and going, but a trainer without a strike in 25 recent attempts and a ranking of ninth of twelve make him hard to fancy.
Form last 6078-40
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR88RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent enough in places — third two starts back and third four starts back — but yet to win in recent starts and that sixth last time out is a concern; has run over today's trip and going, and 149 lb is no featherweight assignment for a gelding rated 83 officially.
Form last 6833U36
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR90RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts — including a pull-up and a brought-down — Gortmore Lady faces a stiff task carrying 148 lb, and her trainer is without a winner in 22 attempts over the past fortnight; experience over today's trip and going offers slim consolation.
Form last 67P-B93
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR85RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Mount Hotham faces a stiff ask here; experience over today's trip and going counts in his favour, but his recent string of poor efforts makes him hard to fancy at the weights.
Form last 600-906
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR75RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and back out just two days after her latest unplaced effort, La Rocca Lass faces a stiff task ranked 11 of 12 on our figures; experience on today's going is about the best that can be said for her.
Form last 60000-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR84RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Tropical Twist owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2Gordon ElliottJack Kennedy
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Pralognan
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · A J Martin✓ Value Signal
Fine Print
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
22/1 · John C McConnell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Pralognan (SR 87, 5/1) is the top-rated horse in this field and has been backed aggressively — a 27% market move in represents meaningful confidence in a €6,000 Downpatrick handicap hurdle. The MarkMv:+30 is noted, but the strong steaming money suggests connections believe the horse is well ahead of its official mark after 255 days off, likely returning fresh and ready to peak. GoingFit:~ on good ground is acceptable, and the DistFit:? simply reflects limited data rather than a proven negative. Trainer A J Martin has a disciplined runner deployment record, and Daniel King (9% overall) provides a competent partnership at a track that rewards confident, positive riding.
Each-way alternative: Tropical Twist.
Main danger: Tropical Twist — Tropical Twist (SR 86, 3/1) is trained by Gordon Elliott with Jack Kennedy aboard — a top-class pairing — carries confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, ran just 2 days ago suggesting high freshness management from a yard that targets races with precision, and is the joint second-highest SR in the field carrying only 12-1.
ShortlistPralognan, Tropical Twist, Granlahan, Gortmore Lady