Chanceawetmorning brings strong recent form — a winner one start back and further wins three and four starts back — and has experience of today's trip and going; the main concern is a trainer operating at just 5% over the last fortnight.
Form last 61-1319
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
122SR115RPR125OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 122 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Cosmos d'Ainay is the one to beat here, winning last time out and again four starts back, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour; a cool 30-day turnaround is ideal, though the trainer's current 5% strike rate is worth noting under 161 lb.
Form last 6/193-1
★AI Rating★★★★☆
130SR120RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Malbay Madness won back-to-back races before finishing eighth last time out, and with experience over today's trip and going he remains a lively threat — the key question is whether that latest below-par effort represents a blip or something more concerning.
Form last 673-118
★AI Rating★★★★☆
124SR116RPR121OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Trasna Na Pairce ran a solid second three starts back and returns fit on 18 days' rest, with experience of today's distance and going working in his favour; yet to win in recent starts, and the 159 lb burden is the key concern.
Form last 60-5274
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
109SR116RPR121OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Pulled up last time and off the track for 86 days, Shinnhill is hard to fancy on current evidence, ranked last on our figures; he has run over today's trip and going before, and that win three starts back is his sole recent bright spot.
Form last 671/7-P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR104RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts, with only a third two runs back to show for recent efforts, Tribal Moon faces a stiff task carrying 153 lb; he has run over today's going before, which offers some small comfort, but he remains hard to fancy ranked fifth of six on our figures.
Form last 60-730
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR105RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Malbay Madness owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (69) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Dermot A McLoughlinP J O'Hanlon
73%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Chanceawetmorning
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/4 · Gordon Elliott✓ Value Signal
Tribal Moon
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Noel C Kelly◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Cosmos d'Ainay (SR 130, 10/11) is the clear class-leader in this six-runner field, carrying 2lb less than stablemate Chanceawetmorning despite a superior SR of 130 vs 122. The form string /193-1 shows a last-time-out win 30 days ago, and GoingFit:+ confirms proven effectiveness on today's good ground — a meaningful advantage in a field where several rivals have untested distance/going profiles. Jack Kennedy (20% career strike rate, 610 runners) is the clear #1 jockey booking from the Elliott yard over Josh Williamson (11%), which is the definitive signal that Elliott is running this horse to win rather than Chanceawetmorning. The 8% market drift from the morning line is a mild concern, but the price remains tight at 10/11 and the weight edge combined with Kennedy's booking overrides that reservation.
Each-way alternative: Malbay Madness.
Main danger: Malbay Madness — Malbay Madness (SR 124, 4/1) has both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed — the only rival who ticks both boxes — and recent form 73-118 shows back-to-back wins before the last run, making it the one horse with proven course-distance credentials to take on the favourite.