DragonBet Welsh Racing Festival 9th-11th October Handicap · 5f16y
A Saturday Rating of 59 paired with poor form figures of 4696-8 and a burdensome 9-9 weight undermine the 9/4 market price.
Poor form figures of 300387 and a low Saturday Rating of 57 undermine the 9/2 odds despite carrying 9-9.
Inconsistent form (893365) and a mid-range Saturday Rating of 59 limit confidence despite fair 5/2 odds and manageable 9-7 weight.
Inconsistent form (384354) and a burdensome 9-5 weight limit a fair Saturday Rating of 58 despite tempting 7/2 odds.
Rated just 50 on Saturday with poor form figures of 094087 and carrying 9-3 at 15/2, Macarone offers little confidence.
A Saturday Rating of 34, poor form reading 86000-, and 22/1 odds signal minimal winning prospects.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Act Of Violence | 2/1 open 4.00 | — | 2/1 open 3.75 | 2/1 open 3.75 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Secret Handsheikh | 9/2 | — | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Dragon God | 5/2 open 3.25 | — | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Some Nightmare | 4/1 open 4.33 | — | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.33 | 4/1 open 4.33 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Macarone | 8/1 open 8.50 | — | 8/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Captain Bentley | 33/1 open 19.00 | — | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Act Of Violence owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalA Saturday Rating of 59 paired with poor form figures of 4696-8 and a burdensome 9-9 weight undermine the 9/4 market price.
Inconsistent form (893365) and a mid-range Saturday Rating of 59 limit confidence despite fair 5/2 odds and manageable 9-7 weight.
Inconsistent form (384354) and a burdensome 9-5 weight limit a fair Saturday Rating of 58 despite tempting 7/2 odds.
Poor form figures of 300387 and a low Saturday Rating of 57 undermine the 9/2 odds despite carrying 9-9.
Rated just 50 on Saturday with poor form figures of 094087 and carrying 9-3 at 15/2, Macarone offers little confidence.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Dragon God (SR 59, 5/2) carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-7, giving him a 2lb advantage over the joint-topweights Act Of Violence and Secret Handsheikh while matching them on SR. His form string 893365 shows a consistent presence in the frame recently, with the latest '5' suggesting he is finding form heading into this race. Tony Carroll is a shrewd handler for this type of competitive sprint handicap, and the 5f16y on Good to Firm at Chepstow suits a horse with a compact form profile. The market has him at 5/2, shorter than Secret Handsheikh (9/2) and Some Nightmare (7/2), indicating quiet confidence without over-shortening. Each-way alternative: Some Nightmare. Main danger: Act Of Violence — Act Of Violence (SR 59, 9/4) is the market leader and shares the top SR in the field, and while his form string 4696-8 shows inconsistency, he is trained by the in-form David Loughnane and carries 9-9 — manageable on Good to Firm ground over this sharp 5f trip.