Below par on his debut at Limerick and still with all to prove, he gets first-time cheekpieces and is off a short break. The task is steep given rivals with more experience or stronger profiles, but if the headgear has an effect there is a chance he can run better than his debut effort suggests.
Form last 60
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
118SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Extreme 200/1 odds and a single form figure of 0 expose Ballysax Stew as a 118-rated outsider carrying 10-6 with no market confidence.
A Profitable gelding and half-brother to a high-class eight-furlong performer, he is likely up against stronger rivals on debut. The pedigree offers some encouragement but others in this field look more fancied on profile; an open proposition on first appearance.
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
118SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long-shot odds of 33/1 and a Saturday Rating of 118 signal limited market confidence and modest form prospects.
Fourth in his most recent start over thirteen furlongs and placed twice before, he is effective at ten to thirteen furlongs on a sound surface. A first-time tongue-tie added and the drop to ten furlongs looks fair; he could go close if his stamina question over a shorter trip is answered.
Form last 6324
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR—RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 88 with solid 324 form at 3/1, Changing Lanes carries 9-8 but lacks the market confidence to justify more than three stars.
Third on debut beaten two and a half lengths at Cork, he showed enough promise to suggest improvement with experience. Effective at ten furlongs with cut and off a short break; his stable has landed this race before and there is more to come from a debut third.
Form last 63
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
147SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 147 with solid debut form of 3, Hard Promises merits consideration at 15/2 despite carrying 9-8.
Seventh on his most recent start and sixth in his previous run, he has found it hard to get competitive at a mile to ten furlongs. He has plenty to find now in handicap company and the form does not point to an imminent improvement.
Form last 63-7867
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
63SR—RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 63 with 20/1 odds and a weak form figure of 3-7867, Loch Gamhna shows no market confidence.
Fourth on debut here, finishing with running left over this distance and going, there is improvement to come if he settles and builds on that debut experience. He is our top-rated runner in the field and the staying-on style suggests he can be more competitive at the second attempt.
Form last 64
★AI Rating★★★★☆
151SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Numantia's strong Saturday Rating of 151 and competitive 10/3 odds suggest solid claims despite a single run showing fourth in form.
He ran to his debut form at Limerick most recently with another well-beaten effort; the step up in distance may help but two runs have not suggested enough quality to be competitive against these. He needs more time and further opportunities to find his level.
Form last 698
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
124SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Outsider odds of 150/1 and weak form figures of 98 signal minimal winning prospects despite carrying 9-8.
A Japan colt out of a Listed-placed German winner at thirteen furlongs, he makes his debut and does not overly appeal on profile alone. However, there is an interesting jockey booking, which may be the only hint we have; the pedigree suggests stamina rather than speed.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
148SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 148 on Saturday at 13/2 and 9-8 weight, Tokyo Tower shows mid-tier market confidence without proven form.
Third on his most recent run having shown more than on debut, he has distance form at eight to ten furlongs. He needs more to win but the step forward between his two runs was encouraging; draws at stall 12 and has enough form to be respected.
Form last 653
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
143SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Midfield form figures of 53 and 11/1 odds suggest a Saturday Rating of 143 at 9-8 offers only moderate winning prospects.
Third on his most recent start at Leopardstown and appearing to step forward on a final qualifying run, he is effective at ten furlongs and may get further. A first-time tongue-tie and off a short break of 72 days; he is open to improvement and can go well if that upward trend continues.
Form last 655-3
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR—RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 79, form reading 55-3, and 13/2 odds suggest limited winning prospects in this maiden.
An unraced 32,000gns Ghaiyyath colt and half-brother to a high-class eight-furlong performer, he draws at stall 1 on debut. His stable has taken this race before and a market check is warranted to see if connections are confident; the pedigree suggests middle-distance ability.
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
123SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A 50/1 outsider with unknown form and no market support, Youcansaythatagain's 123 Saturday Rating fails to justify confidence.
A filly by a speedy sire out of a moderate eight-furlong dam and half-sister to a useful five-furlong performer, the trainer is in form. She faces a tough task on debut from this profile, though the yard is capable; one to treat with caution without more evidence.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
131SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long-shot odds of 22/1 undermine a solid Saturday Rating of 131, creating mixed confidence signals for this 9-3 weighted runner.
Third on debut here beaten a length over ten furlongs on good, she has distance and going form and comes from a stable that has landed this race before. Granted normal progress, there is a chance she can be competitive; she showed promise at the first attempt and deserves respect.
Form last 63
★AI Rating★★★★☆
152SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 152 and solid recent form back a confident 9/2 market position at 9-3.
Well beaten in each of her last two starts in maidens including most recently at Down Royal, she has run over today's distance before and her breeding points to middle distances. She needs more time and experience before suggesting she can be competitive in this field.
Form last 677
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
127SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long-shot odds of 66/1 and a weak form figure of 77 signal limited winning prospects despite carrying 9-3.
Fourth on debut at Gowran Park over ten furlongs on yielding, showing enough to suggest she is suited by the trip and going. There is improvement to come and the debut effort was encouraging without being spectacular; if she steps forward at the second attempt, she has the profile to be a threat.
Form last 64
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
141SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Zadawa's solid Saturday Rating of 141 is undermined by a single fourth-place form figure and 14/1 outsider odds.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Saxony Charms owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (84) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1A OliverW J Lee
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tokyo Tower
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · Jack Foley✓ Value Signal
Solas Na Gealai
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · J S Bolger◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Numantia (SR 151, 10/3) is the second-highest-rated horse in the field and carries the same 9-8 as the top contenders, giving no weight disadvantage relative to Hard Promises (SR 147) or Tokyo Tower (SR 148). Trained by Donnacha Aidan O'Brien — a yard that typically debuts maidens with clear targets in mind — and the 4-star AI probability reflects genuine market and analytical alignment. A single run fourth on debut is a wholly normal profile for an O'Brien-trained 3yo with a SR of 151 stepping up to 1m2f on good ground, a trip that suits a horse of this profile. The 10/3 price is fair for a horse with the highest four-star rating in the field and strong trainer form at this level.
Each-way alternative: Saxony Charms.
Main danger: Saxony Charms — Saxony Charms (SR 152, 9/2) is actually the highest-rated horse in the field, trained by A Oliver who also saddles Hard Promises, and carries a favourable 9-3 — 5lb less than Numantia — making her the most dangerous weight-adjusted threat if she has improved off her debut third.
ShortlistNumantia, Saxony Charms, Hard Promises, Tokyo Tower