Lerwick has been running into form of late, finishing third five starts back before a sequence of placed-to-near-placed efforts, and he drops into this race carrying 141 lb from stall 8 with experience over today's trip and going; the concern is he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 63-4567
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sofian shaped well when third last time out and has previous experience over today's trip and going, with his rating of 68 suggesting he holds more in hand than his mark implies — the risk is that two disappointing efforts before that recent revival leave his consistency open to question.
Form last 612-863
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR—RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bird Of War arrives here third last time out and a winner four starts back, with experience of today's trip and going working in his favour. Forty days between runs is the query, but our rating of 74 just edges him to the top of this nine-runner field.
Form last 641-853
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Cypriot Diaspora at least showed a return to form with a third last time out, and she has experience over today's distance and going; carrying 136 lb from stall four, she looks a midfield proposition at best.
Form last 6-59863
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
63SR—RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
A lengthy absence of 127 days and no placed effort in his last four starts make Our Dagger hard to fancy, and he is ranked seventh of nine on our figures; he does carry experience of today's distance and going, and stall two is his draw.
Form last 61600-5
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR—RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Thestral shaped with promise when third and second in consecutive starts, and having run over today's distance and going before, he retains strong claims at 134 lb from stall 5 — though he remains winless in recent starts, and that elusive breakthrough is the key question.
Form last 6-80230
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, Laughterintherain has experience of today's distance and going, but her recent string of mid-to-rear finishes is hard to ignore; a second four starts back offers a crumb of hope, though 42 days off and a tough task from stall one make this a guarded read.
Form last 672-678
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, with three sevenths among his recent finishes, Ebn Sabt is hard to fancy ranked bottom of nine on our figures, though he has run over today's trip before and 34 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 6467707
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR—RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked eighth of nine on our figures, Grand Vista faces a stiff task here; third two starts back offers a crumb of encouragement, and he has run over today's trip before, but the overall profile makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 65-5038
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR—RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Bird Of War owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Charles HillsHarry Vigors(5)
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Sofian
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Nikki Evans✓ Value Signal
Ebn Sabt
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
100/1 · Ben Lund◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Cypriot Diaspora (SR:63, 9/4) is the most compelling runner in a modest Class 6 field. The 16% market move inward is the strongest steaming signal in the race and reflects Oisin Murphy's booking — a 22% career strike-rate jockey who rarely travels to Ffos Las without intent. Course form of W2P4 is outstanding for a track that notoriously rewards specialists, and a mark that has dropped 9lb since last win gives genuine handicap leverage. While DistFit and GoingFit both read as poor, the same negative distance and going flags apply to most of the field, so they differentiate less than the course record and money trail do.
Each-way alternative: Bird Of War.
Main danger: Bird Of War — Bird Of War carries the highest SR in the field at 69 and a light 9-10, and if the market drift is wrong — perhaps reflecting a precautionary scratch risk or morning softness that cleared — Charles Hills' 3-year-old has the most raw ability to dominate this class.