John Fleming Irish EBF Marble City Stakes (Listed) · 1m4f50y
Favourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 81 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 70 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Amadeus Mozart | 5/2 open 3.25 | — | 5/2 open 3.00 | 5/2 open 3.00 | 5/2 open 3.00 | — | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 2 Echo Inferno | 14/1 | — | 14/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 | — | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Nil Bua Gan Dua | 5/1 open 5.00 | — | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | — | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Shosholoza | 12/1 open 15.00 | — | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | — | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Believed | 11/4 | — | 11/4 | 11/4 | 11/4 | — | 11/4 Bet365 |
| 6 Camino Vino | 80/1 | — | 80/1 | 80/1 | 80/1 | — | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Saga Gaga | 7/2 | — | 10/3 open 5.00 | 10/3 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | — | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 8 Vauntingly | 11/1 open 13.00 | — | 10/1 open 12.00 | 10/1 open 12.00 | 10/1 open 12.00 | — | 11/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Believed owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (61) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 81 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Believed (SR:109, 11/4) carries the lightest weight in the field at 9-0 — a clear 5lb advantage over Amadeus Mozart and Nil Bua Gan Dua at 9-5 — and that weight edge is particularly meaningful at 1m4f50y on good ground. GoingFit:+ confirms the ground suits, and a recent form line of 4-2-1-3 shows consistent progression with a last-time-out third at what was a ClassMv:↑1 step up, suggesting the horse is learning to compete at this level. JP Murtagh's yard runs at 11% with Ben Coen booked — a jockey hitting 12% — and the 11/4 price represents reasonable value in a field where the market leader Amadeus Mozart has drifted badly (out 14%) and carries a 5lb penalty. The first-time hood (HG:h) can sharpen focus at this trip for a horse still finding its feet at Listed level. Each-way alternative: Saga Gaga. Main danger: Saga Gaga — Saga Gaga (SR:109, 7/2) has won its last two starts and is steaming in the market (Mkt:in9%), with the money arriving despite the fact it is stepping up considerably in class (MarkMv:+6) and has only 11 days between runs — connections are clearly confident this rapidly improving filly can handle the Listed jump.