Elmstone Fire Handicap Stakes · 0m6f0y
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 70 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 8-10 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Debrief | 11/4 open 2.38 | — | 3/1 open 2.38 | 11/4 open 2.38 | 11/4 open 2.38 | — | 3/1 Coral |
| 2 Goldwork | 9/2 open 6.50 | — | 9/2 open 6.50 | 9/2 open 6.50 | 9/2 open 6.50 | — | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Sir Alfie | 10/1 open 34.00 | — | 9/1 open 15.00 | 9/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | — | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Adalida | 7/2 open 3.75 | — | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 4.00 | — | 4/1 Coral |
| 5 Espona Bay | 2/1 open 4.00 | — | 15/8 open 3.75 | 15/8 open 3.75 | 2/1 open 3.75 | — | 2/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Espona Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 8-10 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 70 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Espona Bay (SR 80, 2/1) combines the strongest weight advantage in the field at just 8-10 — a full 13lb lighter than top-weight Debrief and 7lb lighter than Adalida — with the best recent form string of 243133 showing consistent involvement and a last-time-out third just 8 days ago, confirming peak fitness. The market has shortened 23% since opening, the most meaningful move in the field from a volume perspective, suggesting professional confidence. DistFit:+ confirms proven ability over today's 6f trip, and the four-star AI probability is the highest rating in the race. The main concern is GoingFit:? (insufficient sample on good-to-firm), but the positive distance record and significant weight advantage on this tight five-runner card make Espona Bay the most compelling selection. Each-way alternative: Adalida. Main danger: Adalida — Adalida (SR 85, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field, has a confirmed GoingFit:+ for good-to-firm, and a course record of W1P1 at Lingfield — the class rise (↑1) and +3 mark move are concerns, but course-and-going familiarity on this track gives her a genuine chance to overturn Espona Bay.