Returning from nearly a year off the track, he was hampered at Galway last time and was left with far too much to make up — it counts as an unlucky effort and a fresh opportunity over fences is warranted. Acts on good ground; first-time tongue-tie applied.
Form last 69/160-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
137SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Ballyearl's solid Saturday Rating of 137 is undermined by poor form (9/160-) and 18/1 odds suggesting limited market confidence.
Fell out of contention at Tramore last month after going too hard in front — a significant reversal that requires explanation before trust can be restored. His pointing background hints at untapped ability over fences; first-time hood and tongue-tie applied, and he handles cut in the ground.
Form last 6474-0P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR—RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Poor form figures of 474-0P and 14/1 odds signal the market holds little confidence in Drop A Threat at 11-12.
First win at Downpatrick 16 days ago, clear by 5 lengths, and there may be more to come now he is off the mark. Consistent over both disciplines, effective at 2m to 2½m; the trainer is quiet at present but the horse arrives in good form.
Form last 65-5521
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR—RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid 112 Saturday Rating and consistent form figures support each-way claims, but 11-12 weight and non-favourite status at 9/2 limit confidence.
Failed to complete at a point-to-point at Tattersalls Farm latest and improvement is required for his first run under Rules. Effective over 2m3f to 3m with first-time cheekpieces; he is the lowest-rated runner here on our assessment and needs to show considerably more.
Form last 60304-P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
123SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Outsider odds of 50/1 and poor form figures of 0304-P make Jetovango an unlikely contender despite carrying 11-12.
Ranked 14th on our figures, he was well beaten in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown 23 days ago after what was essentially an introductory run. Switching to fences with first-time blinkers, effective over 2m6f to 3m; a significant step forward is required here.
Form last 62557-8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
126SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long shot at 22/1 with poor recent form (2557-8) and a Saturday Rating of 126 signals limited winning prospects.
Novice hurdle at Kelso last time ended in a wide-margin success, though it was aided by the early departure of a leading rival. Consistent overall, with more to come over fences; effective between 2m and 2m4f on any surface, returning from a short break with first-time cheekpieces.
Form last 66753-1
★AI Rating★★★★☆
150SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Strong Saturday Rating of 150 and recent winning form (6753-1) justify 4/5 stars despite 15/2 odds.
Form here has disappointed this term, running out of gas down the field most recently at this venue. Effective at 2m on a sound surface, and a drop in distance is the right direction; though he faces a stiff task on his chase return, the conditions at least are suitable.
Form last 62898-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR—RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Malbas combines a weak Saturday Rating of 79, poor form (2898-0), and 33/1 odds suggesting minimal market confidence.
Third at Clonmel 25 days ago after taking the field along at his own pace and perhaps going a bit too hard; there was ability on show despite the margin. Effective from 2m to 2m4f on soft or good, and the switch to fences could unlock further improvement.
Form last 641-493
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
142SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Solid Saturday Rating of 142 and top weight of 11-12 are undermined by patchy form (41-493) and 11/1 outsider market position.
A significant step backwards in first-time headgear at Punchestown nearly six months ago, trailing in well beaten, and a major improvement is needed on his return to fences. Effective from 2m to 2m6f on any surface; the switch back to chasing may help.
Form last 601000-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
131SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Moderate Saturday Rating of 131, poor form (01000-), and a 22/1 outsider price limit Paul Collins to a mid-tier three-star rating.
Won a handicap hurdle at Listowel last month by 3 lengths, form that underlines his hurdles credentials ahead of his chasing bow. Effective at 2½m on yielding or good ground, with a trainer in good order and a first-time tongue-tie; this is an interesting debut over fences.
Form last 61634-1
★AI Rating★★★★☆
158SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 158 combined with recent winning form (1634-1) and strong 2/1 market support justifies the 4-star rating.
Beaten well in a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan 15 days ago, left behind when the pace quickened and crying out for a more demanding test. First-time cheekpieces applied; there is potential for progress over further on his switch to fences but he needs to improve considerably to be competitive.
Form last 68906-8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
123SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Outsider odds of 33/1 and poor form reading 8906-8 make Silver Salute a weak 123-rated contender.
Shaped with ability at Down Royal five months ago — fourth beaten 11 lengths but perhaps not at her peak — and the form book reads better over fences for a yard that thrives at this track. Effective at around 2m4f on soft to heavy ground; first-time hood applied.
Form last 672/54-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
144SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 144 but 11/1 odds and poor form figures of 72/54- limit confidence despite a competitive weight of 11-5.
Third at Downpatrick 16 days ago — 8½ lengths back but with every chance — and she arrives here in good heart having shown form over both hurdles and fences recently. Effective at 2½m on decent ground, with a first-time tongue-tie; she remains a genuine danger.
Form last 6712-33
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR—RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rockstown Girl's consistent form (712-33) and solid 108 Saturday Rating justify mid-tier appeal, but 17/2 odds suggest limited market confidence.
Back to her best at Killarney last time, going down by just half a length in a handicap chase after being caught late — a run that shows she is in good form despite remaining maiden over fences. Effective at 2m4f on any surface; returning after a short break.
Form last 62P65-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR—RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Sophia Rose rates 3/5 with a 105 Saturday Rating, 11/2 odds, and inconsistent form of 2P65-2 suggesting mid-field potential.
Form has fallen away in recent starts, and the latest outing at Downpatrick 17 days ago was a well-beaten effort that may have come too soon after his previous run. Handles 2m to 2m4f on soft or yielding ground, but he is a hard proposition to support at present.
Form last 6/F-769
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR—RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 87, poor form reading /F-769, and 16/1 odds signal a horse the market has firmly dismissed.
Struggled to last the trip at Ballinrobe 36 days ago after being committed to the front too early. An inconsistent sort who is best caught fresh over 2½m on a sound surface; today's conditions are suitable but he needs to keep something in reserve.
Form last 638P-10
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
141SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Form shows a recent win but inconsistent figures, and 14/1 odds suggest limited market confidence despite a solid 141 Saturday Rating.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rockonliam owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (88) and market confidence (95). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/10Henry De BromheadDarragh O'Keeffe
81%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Kashchei
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/1 · Cian Collins✓ Value Signal
Ballyearl
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Henry De Bromhead◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rockonliam (SR 158, 2/1) is the standout on ability in this beginners chase, carrying 11-12 — the same weight as the field given the level nature of this race — and his form figure of '1634-1' shows a last-time-out win which is the most meaningful signal at this level. The SR of 158 clears the next-best Kashchei (SR 150) by 8 points and Clody Diamond (SR 144) by 14, a substantial edge for good ground over 2m3f110y. Henry De Bromhead is a top-tier jumps trainer and the market's 2/1 confidence reflects genuine class superiority rather than blind favourite-backing. The recent win combined with the SR lead makes this a straightforward call despite the field size.
Each-way alternative: Kashchei.
Main danger: Kashchei — Kashchei (SR 150, 15/2) posted a last-time-out win on his '6753-1' form line and at 8 points below Rockonliam on SR, is the most likely rival if Rockonliam has any jumping issue or is below peak form on the day.
ShortlistRockonliam, Kashchei, Clody Diamond, Ned In The Park