Michael Joyce Memorial Handicap · 1m1f163y
Daler's 84 Saturday Rating and fair 7/2 odds are undermined by inconsistent 64-871 form and a hefty 10-2 weight.
Grey Leader's 33/1 odds, poor 150-00 form, and low 53 Saturday Rating confirm a no-hope outsider.
Mocking's 84 Saturday Rating and 5/2 odds suggest market respect, but inconsistent form (301-66) and top weight 10-0 limit confidence.
Carrying top weight of 9-11 with a Saturday Rating of 54 and bleak 7-8000 form makes 22/1 odds unsurprising.
Carrying top weight of 9-11 with poor form (0-0688), a lowly Saturday Rating of 59, and dismissed by the market at 18/1.
Mid-range Saturday Rating of 79 and inconsistent form (208-14) at 9-9 weight limit justify a cautious 3-star assessment at 11/2.
Carrying top weight 9-6 at 25/1 with a Saturday Rating of 52 and uninspiring 5-2200 form justifies the cautious 2-star rating.
Rated 83 with workable 4/1 odds, Merlin The Wizard's inconsistent 025381 form and 9-6 weight limit confidence to a mid-tier three stars.
Rated just 71 with poor recent form (41874-) and dismissed at 10/1 by the market, Storm Averted carries 9-5 with little to recommend.
Poor recent form (10-508), a Saturday Rating of 66, and 14/1 odds signal market scepticism about this 9-3 weighted runner.
Carrying 9-2 with a Saturday Rating of just 71, inconsistent form (-27410), and available at 10/1, Lough Leane lacks market confidence.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Daler | 5/2 open 4.00 | — | 5/2 open 4.33 | 5/2 open 4.33 | 5/2 open 4.50 | 5/2 open 4.33 | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 2 Grey Leader | 33/1 open 21.00 | — | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 Coral |
| 3 Mocking | 3/1 open 5.50 | — | 11/4 open 3.25 | 11/4 open 3.25 | 3/1 open 3.25 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 3/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Dark Summit | 22/1 open 17.00 | — | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 Coral |
| 5 Dark Viper | 18/1 open 15.00 | — | 18/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Marmeladova | 7/2 open 6.50 | — | 10/3 open 6.00 | 10/3 open 6.00 | 7/2 open 6.00 | 10/3 open 6.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 7 Justenzia | 14/1 open 19.00 | — | 14/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 26.00 | 11/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Merlin The Wizard | 5/1 open 5.50 | — | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Storm Averted | 16/1 open 9.50 | — | 20/1 open 9.50 | 20/1 open 9.50 | 20/1 open 10.00 | 20/1 open 9.50 | 20/1 Coral |
| 10 Flying Fortress | 11/1 open 13.00 | — | 11/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Lough Leane | 14/1 open 10.00 | — | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 11.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 Coral |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Merlin The Wizard owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalDaler's 84 Saturday Rating and fair 7/2 odds are undermined by inconsistent 64-871 form and a hefty 10-2 weight.
Mocking's 84 Saturday Rating and 5/2 odds suggest market respect, but inconsistent form (301-66) and top weight 10-0 limit confidence.
Mid-range Saturday Rating of 79 and inconsistent form (208-14) at 9-9 weight limit justify a cautious 3-star assessment at 11/2.
Rated 83 with workable 4/1 odds, Merlin The Wizard's inconsistent 025381 form and 9-6 weight limit confidence to a mid-tier three stars.
Carrying top weight 9-6 at 25/1 with a Saturday Rating of 52 and uninspiring 5-2200 form justifies the cautious 2-star rating.
Carrying 9-2 with a Saturday Rating of just 71, inconsistent form (-27410), and available at 10/1, Lough Leane lacks market confidence.
Rated just 71 with poor recent form (41874-) and dismissed at 10/1 by the market, Storm Averted carries 9-5 with little to recommend.
Carrying top weight of 9-11 with poor form (0-0688), a lowly Saturday Rating of 59, and dismissed by the market at 18/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Daler (SR 84, 7/2, 10-2) arrives on the back of a last-time-out win — the rightmost digit in 64-871 is a 1 — making him the most in-form horse in the field. At SR 84 he shares the joint-top rating with Mocking but carries only 2lb more than Mocking (10-2 vs 10-0), a negligible burden at this distance. G M Lyons is a high-calibre handler and the market's second-shortest price reflects genuine confidence, not drift. The 1m1f163y trip on Good ground suits a lightly-raced 4yo improving into handicaps, and the recent winning form at this class level is the clearest positive signal in the race. Each-way alternative: Merlin The Wizard. Main danger: Mocking — Mocking (SR 84, 5/2, 10-0) is the market leader and shares the top SR, carrying 2lb less than Daler — the 301-66 form includes a win and two placed efforts at this level, and trainer J P Murtagh rarely fields handicappers without purpose at a track like Ballinrobe.