Third last time out and a winner two starts back, A Major Payne brings a consistent recent profile — two wins in his last six starts — and has run over today's trip and going before, though carrying 143 lb from stall 10 makes life no easier for a horse ranked sixth of eleven.
Form last 6221313
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR87RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Thinthread has managed one win in his last five starts, with an unplaced effort most recently, and ranked ninth of eleven on our figures he looks hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip before and returns on a reasonable 29-day break.
Form last 6313-50
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR85RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Obito comes here on the back of a win last time out and has experience of today's trip and conditions, making him an appealing pick under 142 lb from stall six, despite a couple of moderate efforts in the runs immediately prior.
Form last 6-82551
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR90RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
First Ambition has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 93 has him narrowly top-rated — a compelling case on the figures that he has the ability for this. The risk is a winless recent spell across his last five starts.
Form last 6-67066
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
65SR93RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Bearish won two starts back and was a winner four starts back, giving him a lively recent profile, though he was unplaced last time and carries 137 lb from stall 9; he has run over today's trip and returns on a quick nine-day turnaround.
Form last 64-1210
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR87RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Alcaraz has twice finished second in recent starts and returns after 29 days off with experience of today's trip and going, his rating of 92 giving him a clear edge on official figures; the risk is that he has been winless in his last five starts, with an unplaced effort last time out to overcome.
Form last 6228-50
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR92RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Due To Henry has been placed twice in his last five starts — third last time out and a second three runs back — but is winless in recent starts and returns after 78 days off, which adds a fitness query; he has run over today's trip and going, and 134 lb from stall four is the weight he must overcome.
Form last 600-253
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR85RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Brigid's Well has experience over today's trip and, rated 92 by us against an official mark of 82, she looks significantly better than her current handicap rating suggests, making her a genuine danger from stall 3; the concern is a winless recent run of five starts.
Form last 64-5067
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR92RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked last on our figures and beaten into fifth last time out, Si Grass faces a stiff ask under 129 lb, with consecutive poor efforts in her two most recent starts making her hard to fancy, though a win four starts back shows she can find the winner's enclosure.
Form last 62-1285
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR78RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked tenth of eleven on our figures, Lavender Gold is hard to fancy despite winning two starts back, as an unplaced effort last time and a modest speed rating of 73 make him difficult to support; he has run over today's trip and going, and returns after a 36-day break.
Form last 623-710
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR79RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
A Major Payne owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Michael BellOisin Murphy
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Bearish
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Ed Dunlop✓ Value Signal
Alcaraz
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · George Baker◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
A Major Payne (SR 92, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and has shortened 13% in the market — Oisin Murphy's 21% strike rate on 1,372 career rides is the standout jockey booking. The DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at this sort of trip, and dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) means he faces a softer test than last time out. Despite the GoingFit:? being unknown, his recent form 221313 shows consistent competitiveness and the stable/jockey combination targeting this race with evident market support is compelling.
Each-way alternative: Lavender Gold.
Main danger: Bearish — Bearish (SR 93, 4/1) is actually the joint SR-leader in the field, drops two classes (ClassMv:↓2), and carries a light 9-11 — the combination of superior SR and favourable weight could overhaul A Major Payne, though the 9-day turnaround and a last-run 0 give pause.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Bearish (SR:93) is actually higher-rated by 1 point and, critically, has raced just 9 days ago showing peak freshness, while A Major Payne's trainer Michael Bell has only a 9% strike rate — the weake…
GoingFit:? is a genuine flag at Goodwood's undulating track, which is notoriously sensitive to going — if conditions are soft, a horse whose going suitability is unproven here is a real risk at 10/3.
Form 221313 contains two third-place finishes in the last three runs; the '3' and '1' pattern suggests inconsistency rather than reliable winning form, and the last two results (1→3) show a regressio…
A Major Payne's MarkMv:+6 combined with the in-market move of only 13% is modest for a supposed banker — Bearish at 4/1 is shorter in the market despite drifting 5%, suggesting market confidence is n…
ShortlistA Major Payne, Bearish, Lavender Gold, Thinthread