Winless in her last six starts, Aurora Nova nonetheless catches the eye with a third five starts back and a speed rating well clear of her official rating, suggesting she retains ability; the weight of 142 lb from stall 13 is the chief concern.
Form last 6035900
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR66RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in his last four starts and not seen out for 89 days, Menwirr faces a stiff task from stall nine carrying 140 lb, though he has run over today's trip before and that experience offers some small encouragement.
Form last 68-507
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR58RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Nebrook Star at least has experience of today's trip and going to call upon, but recent form has trended the wrong way and she faces a stiff task from stall one carrying 140 lb.
Form last 634-607
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR65RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Tawaazon has run over today's trip and going, and his rating of 67 — ten pounds clear of his official mark — flags him as a leading danger, with a second in recent starts suggesting he can threaten at his best; the risk is that he has been winless in his last six starts.
Form last 6029594
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR67RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked top of 19 by our rating, Gordon Bennett brings strong form credentials to this field, finishing third three starts back and unplaced 17 days ago with distance and going experience to call on; the risk is he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 66039-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR69RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Fresh from a 30-day break and with experience of today's trip and conditions, I'm Spartacus shaped with promise when fourth two starts back, and he showed what he can do when taking top honours five starts back; carrying 137 lb from stall 14 on a rating of 55, our figures suggest he merits plenty of respect here.
Form last 6416048
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
47SR69RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and returning after 331 days off, Pansy Poe faces a stiff ask, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a rating of 58 gives her a slim foothold in a competitive field.
Form last 670960-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR58RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Simmering Seas shaped well when second last time out, but she remains winless in her last five starts and that sixth three starts back underlines her inconsistency; experience over today's trip and going gives her a foothold, though stall 12 and 134 lb are factors to weigh.
Form last 607-602
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
61SR60RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Smart Sioux faces a stiff task from stall 10 carrying 134 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and our rating of 62 suggests she holds more ability than her official mark implies.
Form last 6090-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR62RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Hasiyna showed a second and a win in her recent starts, but a seventh last time out and 156 days off the track are clear concerns; she has run over today's trip and going before and carries 132 lb from stall two.
Form last 61-2697
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
25SR57RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked 15 of 19 on our figures, Whatswrongnow faces a stiff ask from stall 19 carrying 132 lb, though experience over today's trip and going and a return to form shown by a third three starts back offer slim encouragement.
Form last 6026350
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR53RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in her last four starts and absent for 484 days, Prada's World faces a stiff ask on her return, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a third two starts back offers a crumb of encouragement.
Form last 6983/0-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR57RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Amanirenas won two starts back but has been out of the frame since, and 331 days off the track is a significant query on fitness; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 130 lb is no light burden, though a rating of 62 gives her something to work with.
Form last 658019-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
33SR62RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 33 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked well down the field on our figures, Step Back In Time faces a stiff task here, though she has run over today's trip and going before and comes into this a shade fresher after 20 days off.
Form last 6-00903
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
43SR51RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 14th of 19 on our figures, Steel Magnolia faces a stiff task from stall 18 carrying 127 lb, though she has run over today's trip and going before and her second last time out shows she retains some ability.
Form last 6-43472
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
52SR54RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked 18 of 19 on our figures, Little Roy faces a stiff ask here; 70 days off the track does little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6609
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
20SR44RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 20 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Niobite faces a stiff task from stall 17, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a manageable 30-day break.
Form last 60000
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
19SR39RPR43OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 19 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 17 of 19 on our figures, Lismacbryan makes the most of an 87-day absence hard to assess, though she has run over today's trip and going before and carries a manageable 122 lb from stall seven.
Form last 6580-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
24SR46RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 24 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Simmering Seas owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (92). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/4Daniel James MurphyTerry Casey(7)
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tawaazon
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · John Andrew Kinsella✓ Value Signal
Little Roy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · Gillian Scott◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Simmering Seas (SR:61, 6/4) shares the field's joint-highest SR alongside Tawaazon and Dandy Land but carries the lightest weight of those three at 9-8, a meaningful edge in a 19-runner sprint handicap. The market has backed it in 20% since opening, confirming confidence from connections, and Daniel James Murphy's stable runs at a solid 11% strike rate. The form string 07-602 shows a recent runner-up finish and the horse is only 9 days since last run, suggesting a horse in a racing routine and ready to go. The main concern is DistFit:- and GoingFit:-, meaning proven struggles at this trip and on good ground — but the SR lead, weight advantage over rivals, and strong market drift inward make it the most defensible selection in a wide-open field.
Each-way alternative: Tawaazon.
Main danger: Tawaazon — Tawaazon (SR:61, 4/1) matches Simmering Seas on SR, has steamed in 41% in the market — the strongest inbound move in the field — and carries only 1lb more at 9-13, with course form (W0P1) at Naas that Simmering Seas lacks, though the DistFit:- and GoingFit:- tags are a genuine concern.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are both flagged negative — Simmering Seas has not proven its ability at this trip on good ground, two simultaneous unknowns in a 19-runner sprint handicap.
Form string 07-602 shows only one runner-up and otherwise modest finishes including a 0 last time; the recent proximity to form may flatter a horse that finished sixth or worse in most starts.
Jockey Terry Casey (7lb claimer) has only a 10% strike rate from 41 rides — below the level of rival riders such as W J Lee (14%) and Chris Hayes (11%) on horses with competitive SRs.
Tawaazon matches on SR:61 at 4/1, has a Course:W0P1 record at Naas giving proven course form, and has backed in 41% — yet is sent off at nearly triple the odds, suggesting the market may be overcooki…