Marsh Benham won two starts back and was runner-up three starts back, giving him a sharp recent profile, and he has run over today's distance and going before; the concern is last time's sixth just two days ago, though draw four and a solid weight of 140 lb suit a horse in this form.
Form last 676-216
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR72RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, War Chant nevertheless rates the pick of this field on our figures and has experience of today's trip and conditions; the concern is that his form line shows a persistent inability to convert.
Form last 683-456
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
56SR74RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Consistent placed effort three starts back gives Nordic Norm a solid foundation, and he has experience of today's trip and going; carrying 137 lb from stall 3, the main concern is that he arrives on the back of two below-par efforts and is yet to score in recent starts.
Form last 6-45290
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR71RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
My Old Mate arrives in fine heart, a winner two starts back and a winner three starts back, and he shaped well for third last time out; he has run over today's trip and carries a workable 131 lb from stall five, though a return to form after just five days is the key question.
Form last 6982113
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
86SR65RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Danehill Star also has the headwind of a trainer in poor recent form (1/20 over the last 14 days); experience over today's trip and going, plus draw one, offer thin consolation.
Form last 6433235
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
65SR62RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
My Old Mate owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (98). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
8/15Gary & Josh MooreBilly Loughnane
77%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Marsh Benham
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · George Baker✓ Value Signal
Nordic Norm
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · J. R. Jenkins◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
My Old Mate (SR 86, 4/7) holds a decisive class advantage in this modest five-runner Class 5 handicap — SR 86 versus the next-best Marsh Benham at SR 77 and Danehill Star at SR 65 is a meaningful gap at this level. The form string 982113 reads as a horse in sharp ascent, with three consecutive wins culminating in the most recent run just five days ago, suggesting peak condition. Billy Loughnane (19% strike rate, 1,774 career rides) is the strongest jockey booking in the field by some margin, and DistFit:+ confirms the distance suits. The step up one class tier (ClassMv:↑1) and a mark 8lb higher than the last win are the only notes of caution, but at SR 86 the horse is simply operating at a different level to most of these rivals.
Each-way alternative: Marsh Benham.
Main danger: Marsh Benham — Marsh Benham (SR 77, 10/3) has shortened 7% in the market and carries top-weight 10-0 against a 3-year-old on 9-5, giving My Old Mate a 9lb pull that could offset some of the SR gap — and two previous places at Brighton signal a course specialist who won't be ground down easily.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Running off a +8lb mark rise after winning by what may have been a narrow margin; at Class 5 level that penalty can swiftly neutralise a SR advantage over rivals already proven competitive at this tr…
Only 5 days since last run — very quick turnaround for a 3yo who has raced three times in short succession; residual fatigue could blunt sharpness at a tricky undulating Brighton track.
ClassMv:↑1 combined with the highest weight in the race (9-5 as a 3yo giving weight away to older rivals on 10-0 and 9-13) means My Old Mate is carrying a dual burden today despite the age allowance.
Marsh Benham (SR 77, 10/3) has two course placings, showed form just 2 days ago (market drifted only 7%), and Brighton's unique camber suits horses with course experience — a factor My Old Mate's rec…