Arqana Irish EBF Marwell Stakes (Listed) · 0m5f0y
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 128 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 74 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 72 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 125 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 64 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 April Mist | 10/1 open 10.00 | — | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 10.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Back To The Lodge | 100/1 open 126.00 | — | 100/1 open 126.00 | 100/1 open 126.00 | 100/1 open 126.00 | 100/1 open 126.00 | 100/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Belle Of The Ball | 25/1 open 19.00 | — | 25/1 open 17.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Big Negotiator | 25/1 open 17.00 | — | 22/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Concorde Landed | evn open 2.25 | — | 10/11 open 2.20 | 10/11 open 2.20 | 10/11 open 2.38 | 10/11 open 2.20 | evn Bet365 |
| 6 Eastern Queen | 100/1 open 81.00 | — | 100/1 open 81.00 | 100/1 open 81.00 | 100/1 open 81.00 | 100/1 open 81.00 | 100/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Shesthedevil | 50/1 open 41.00 | — | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Shimmering Sun | 9/4 open 3.50 | — | 9/4 | 9/4 open 3.50 | 9/4 open 3.50 | 9/4 open 3.50 | 9/4 Bet365 |
| 9 Silent Beauty | 11/1 open 11.00 | — | 11/1 | 11/1 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 11/1 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Tropical Crown | 7/1 open 6.00 | — | 9/1 open 7.00 | 9/1 open 7.00 | 8/1 open 7.00 | 9/1 open 7.00 | 9/1 Coral |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Tropical Crown owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (84) and market confidence (68). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Concorde Landed (SR:139, evens) is the Twomey yard's clear #1 — handed to senior jockey W J Lee while stablemate Big Negotiator (SR:72) takes the yard's second string with Wayne Lordan aboard. A market that has shortened 14% since opening confirms money behind this selection, while Big Negotiator has drifted 57% — unmistakable stable orders. A debut winner with a SR of 139 is comfortably the highest ability rating among credible contenders in this field once Tropical Crown's concern is factored in, and Twomey's 25% strike rate across 212 runners shows a live handler. The evens price is short but built on substance: sole career run was a winning one, handlers are signalling it clearly, and no rival combines the SR level with market confidence. Each-way alternative: April Mist. Main danger: Shimmering Sun — Shimmering Sun (SR:101, 9/4) is the second-favourite with a 6% market move in and Dylan Browne McMonagle booked — that jockey-trainer combination (Eustace, 12% strike rate, 150 runners) gives it a professional operation behind it, and if the 5f trip on good ground suits a lightly-raced improver, it could outrun its SR at a price that implies more market faith than most of the field.