Peter Smith Birthday Celebration Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m10y
Carrying top weight of 12-0 with a Saturday Rating of 122 and patchy form of 461-13 limits confidence despite fair 2/1 odds.
Ivane's mid-range Saturday Rating of 115 and recent form figures of 4264-4 justify a moderate 3/5, despite competitive 7/2 odds and 11-12 weight.
Form showing a pulled-up last run and a mid-range Saturday Rating of 115 limits confidence despite fair 4/1 odds and 11-8 weight.
Fairlawn Flyer's Saturday Rating of 109, mid-range 11/2 odds, and inconsistent 3P-434 form under 11-8 weight justify a modest 3/5 rating.
Eaton Anne's mid-range Saturday Rating of 116, inconsistent form of 524-20, and 4/1 odds suggest solid but unspectacular claims at 11-5.
Long odds of 28/1, a modest Saturday Rating of 82, and patchy form reading 12P-65 make A Dublin Job an unconvincing outsider.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Karnaval Point | 6/4 open 3.25 | — | 11/8 open 3.00 | 11/8 open 3.00 | 6/4 open 3.00 | 11/8 open 3.00 | 6/4 Bet365 |
| 2 Ivane | 5/1 open 4.50 | — | 5/1 open 4.33 | 5/1 open 4.33 | 5/1 open 4.33 | 5/1 open 4.33 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Paper Mill | 9/2 open 5.00 | — | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 Coral |
| 4 Fairlawn Flyer | 5/1 open 6.50 | — | 5/1 open 6.50 | 5/1 open 6.50 | 5/1 open 6.50 | 5/1 open 6.50 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Eaton Anne | 9/2 open 4.50 | — | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 6 A Dublin Job | 40/1 open 26.00 | — | 40/1 open 23.00 | 40/1 open 23.00 | 33/1 open 23.00 | 33/1 open 21.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Karnaval Point owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (68) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalCarrying top weight of 12-0 with a Saturday Rating of 122 and patchy form of 461-13 limits confidence despite fair 2/1 odds.
Form showing a pulled-up last run and a mid-range Saturday Rating of 115 limits confidence despite fair 4/1 odds and 11-8 weight.
Eaton Anne's mid-range Saturday Rating of 116, inconsistent form of 524-20, and 4/1 odds suggest solid but unspectacular claims at 11-5.
Ivane's mid-range Saturday Rating of 115 and recent form figures of 4264-4 justify a moderate 3/5, despite competitive 7/2 odds and 11-12 weight.
Fairlawn Flyer's Saturday Rating of 109, mid-range 11/2 odds, and inconsistent 3P-434 form under 11-8 weight justify a modest 3/5 rating.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Eaton Anne (SR 116, 4/1, 11-5) brings the most compelling multi-signal case. She is a course winner (W1P1 at Uttoxeter) and proven at today's trip (DistFit:+), two advantages no other runner can match in combination. Sean Bowen's 23% career strike rate is the standout jockey booking in the field, and Olly Murphy's 20% trainer strike rate is also the best yard represented. The weight of 11-5 is lighter than both Karnaval Point (12-0) and Ivane (11-12), giving her a meaningful lbs advantage despite her SR of 116. The one concern is GoingFit:- on good ground, but her course and distance credentials on this track are specific enough to outweigh that flag — particularly at a fair price. Each-way alternative: Ivane. Main danger: Karnaval Point — Karnaval Point holds the highest SR in the field at 122 and won last time out (Form:461-13, rightmost digit 3 with a 1 before it), and at 2/1 the market clearly respects its ability despite the hefty weight and rising mark.