Struggled to raise a gallop on his hurdle debut at Southwell, finishing fourth but a massive 82 lengths adrift, having shown only modest form in points. He may simply need more time to adjust to the rules game and is difficult to fancy at this stage.
Form last 63/3F-4
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
123SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 123 but sent off at 80/1 with inconsistent form of 3/3F-4, the market clearly lacks confidence despite reasonable weight.
His flat form over middle distances suggests there's more to come once he finds his feet over hurdles, and he acts on today's going; tongue-tie applied for the first time. Yet to deliver that potential over jumps in three runs, but the underlying form is a reason to keep him in mind.
Form last 6547-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR—RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 100 with outdated form figures of 547-, Brosna Town's 9/1 odds reflect a market unconvinced by its maiden hurdle prospects.
A point winner, having taken a maiden pointing contest by 2.5 lengths most recently on the back of some mixed form, and he makes his rules debut here; one to note in the betting. The step from pointing to the rules game is unproven though and he sits low in our figures.
Form last 6624P1-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
147SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Form showing a recent win after poor runs, but 17/2 odds and 147 Saturday Rating suggest mid-tier potential at 11-4.
Heads our figures as a dual bumper winner who should be hitting his stride over hurdles; connections have a strong record in this event and he has form at this trip on a sound surface. Last run ended in an unseating but first-time cheekpieces mark a fresh angle.
Form last 610-32U
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR—RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Moderate Saturday Rating of 108 and inconsistent form (10-32U) limit confidence despite strong 5/4 market odds.
Solid flat form translates well to this, and on his debut in a hurdle at Worcester he shaped promisingly — second beaten 4.5 lengths despite expending too much energy early on. First-time cheekpieces here should help him settle and he's capable of going one better.
Form last 62
★AI Rating★★★★☆
157SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Strong Saturday Rating of 157 combined with competitive 15/8 odds and consistent form figure of 2 justifies four stars.
Consistent without threatening in recent starts — her last outing at Cartmel saw her beaten nine lengths but the form was in line with her level — and she handles today's distance and ground well. she's yet to find the improvement her current mark asks for, which is the sticking point.
Form last 6553-35
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR—RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 95 and inconsistent form (553-35) at 13/2 suggest mid-tier potential without convincing market support.
Her bumper form showed plenty of consistency and she acts on today's going; the hurdling debut at Worcester was rough — she raced green and was well beaten — but there's every reason to expect improvement now she's had that experience. She rates one of the leading threats if her jumping clicks.
Form last 6222-8
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
129SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Consistent placed form (222) offset by a long odds price of 28/1 and a Saturday Rating of 129 limits confidence to three stars.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rogue Impact owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1James OwenJonathan Burke
89%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Brosna Town
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · Jessica Bedi✓ Value Signal
Little Lady Rock
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Shaun Lycett◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rogue Impact (SR 157, 15/8) is the class standout in this field by a considerable margin — a full 10 points clear of Military Saint (SR 147) and 29 points above the favourite Way Maker (SR 108). Trained by James Owen (17% strike rate from 1,450 runners, a high-volume yard that knows when to target a race) and ridden by Jonathan Burke (15%), this 4-year-old is a debutant over hurdles having run just once under Rules, finishing second, suggesting significant untapped potential. The 3lb weight advantage over the heavier-set rivals at 10-13 is a practical edge in a maiden, and four-star AI probability reflects the SR superiority. The GoingFit:~ is the only caveat — good ground is not a proven strength — but in a maiden hurdle of this quality, raw ability should override a moderate going profile.
Each-way alternative: Military Saint.
Main danger: Way Maker — Way Maker is the 5/4 market favourite — the public money is with the Mickey Bowen/James Bowen yard (16% and 18% strike rates respectively), it carries a proven GoingFit:+ on good ground, dropped a class, and despite a modest SR of 108, connections clearly fancy it enough to have installed a tongue-tie and cheekpieces, suggesting a horse ready to improve sharply on its hurdles debut proper.