Tom Farrell Memorial Handicap · 1m7f218y
A Saturday Rating of 61 and uninspiring form figures of 92276 justify the modest 2-star rating despite 3/1 odds.
Carrying top weight of 9-8 with patchy form (271957) and a low Saturday Rating of 51 at 12/1 limits appeal.
Balgowan's inconsistent form (74-312) and middling Saturday Rating of 65 limit confidence despite carrying 9-7 at 7/4.
Rated just 45 with poor form showing a sequence of 20109/ and dismissed at 16/1 in the market.
Break Point's mid-range Saturday Rating of 51 and inconsistent form of 023-65 at 11/2 odds justify a cautious 3-star rating.
Moderate Saturday Rating of 52 and inconsistent form figures 3-8437 limit confidence despite fair 5/1 odds.
A Saturday Rating of 41, poor form showing 7339U4, and 12/1 odds signal market doubt and inconsistency.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nelson Gate | 10/3 open 4.50 | — | 11/4 open 4.50 | 11/4 | 3/1 open 4.50 | 3/1 | 10/3 Bet365 |
| 2 Sneaky Blinder | 12/1 open 12.00 | — | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Balgowan | 7/4 open 2.25 | — | 15/8 open 2.25 | 15/8 open 2.75 | 15/8 open 2.25 | 15/8 open 2.75 | 15/8 Coral |
| 4 Our Papa Smurf | 16/1 open 15.00 | — | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Break Point | 6/1 open 6.50 | — | 6/1 open 6.50 | 6/1 open 6.50 | 6/1 open 8.00 | 11/2 | 6/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Golden Samba | 5/1 open 9.00 | — | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 open 7.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Apache Eagle | 9/1 open 11.00 | — | 17/2 open 13.00 | 17/2 open 13.00 | 8/1 open 10.00 | 17/2 open 13.00 | 9/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Nelson Gate owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalBalgowan's inconsistent form (74-312) and middling Saturday Rating of 65 limit confidence despite carrying 9-7 at 7/4.
A Saturday Rating of 61 and uninspiring form figures of 92276 justify the modest 2-star rating despite 3/1 odds.
Moderate Saturday Rating of 52 and inconsistent form figures 3-8437 limit confidence despite fair 5/1 odds.
Break Point's mid-range Saturday Rating of 51 and inconsistent form of 023-65 at 11/2 odds justify a cautious 3-star rating.
A Saturday Rating of 41, poor form showing 7339U4, and 12/1 odds signal market doubt and inconsistency.
Carrying top weight of 9-8 with patchy form (271957) and a low Saturday Rating of 51 at 12/1 limits appeal.
Rated just 45 with poor form showing a sequence of 20109/ and dismissed at 16/1 in the market.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Balgowan (SR 65, 7/4) is the clear class-leader in this modest field, sitting 4 SRs clear of nearest rival Nelson Gate and carrying a favourable 9-7 — 2lb less than Nelson Gate despite superior ability. The form string 74-312 shows consistent placing at this class with a recent win (rightmost digit 2 indicates close-up finish), and the 7/4 market confidence is well-founded for a horse with the strongest SR in the race. At 7 years old on Good to Soft over a stamina-testing 1m7f218y, Balgowan's experience over a searching trip is a further advantage over the younger, less exposed rivals. Each-way alternative: Nelson Gate. Main danger: Nelson Gate — Nelson Gate (SR 61, 3/1) is second-highest rated, trained by the in-form Gary & Josh Moore yard, and the 3/1 second-favourite price reflects genuine market respect — the 92276 form includes competitive runs at a higher class and a return to form could see him threaten on this stamina test.