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Sly Man's Top Rated — Monday 13 July 2026

Every rating, pick and market move that matters, in one read.

Sly Man’s Briefing · 2026-07-13

Today’s Top Rated

36 races 303 runners scanned
Sly Man Staff analyst
Editorial

Sly Man’s Take

Three minutes with the day.

The Read
The Fold is empty today — no horse lands in two or more primary signals, so treat this as a watchlist morning rather than a bet-slip one. The strongest single signal is the cross-system consensus quartet, and White Ladder at 15:00 Ayr and Jasper Glory at 15:12 Newton Abbot both draw four-system agreement spanning AI consensus, Mr Fox, Race Explorer, and the steamer board — rare alignment on a quiet day, though thin convergence overall means the counter here is simply that four systems can be wrong in unison, and neither horse carries a standout SR to underpin the case. The steamer data does offer one eye-catching move worth logging: Amethyst Star at 18:20 Windsor has been hammered from 50/1 into 18/1, which is a significant plunge even if the absolute price still signals a speculative proposition — money at those odds tends to be informed or badly mistaken, and it is worth watching to see whether the drift continues or firms further before post-time. Saucats at 15:42 Newton Abbot also sits in that four-system consensus group and is worth a line on the shortlist, but with the signals this diffuse across 36 races and 303 runners, the honest read is that today favours patience over conviction.
The scan

Top Signals TodayTop SignalsThe highest-conviction hit from each race today, one row per race. Filters the whole card down to what’s actually worth watching.

The highest-conviction hits, one per race.

Race Horse Price Consensus Steamer Notes Result
15:00 Ayr
15/8
Strong contender
4th
15:12 Newton Abbot
10/11
Strong contender
🥈 2nd
15:42 Newton Abbot
11/2
Strong contender
🥈 2nd
18:30 Killarney
Chirac SR 160
7/2
Highest SR (watch)
4th
17:50 Windsor
Leonardo Blu SR 159
7/4
Highest SR (watch)
4th
18:30 Killarney
Dervo Annie SR 158
8/1
Highest SR (watch)
6th
18:20 Windsor
22/1
↓ 50/1→18/1
Steaming
10th
20:10 Lingfield (AW)
7/1
↓ 14/1→13/2
Steaming
5th
20:40 Lingfield (AW)
6/5
↓ 4/1→6/5
Steaming
🏆 WON
14:30 Ayr
16/1
↑ 11/2→16/1
Market cooling
8th
By the numbers

The Ratings

Top three horses by each rating system today.

SR Speed Rating SR — Speed RatingA numeric performance score based on race times. Higher is faster — typically 100+ is strong, 140+ is Group-race calibre.
  1. Chirac

    18:30 Killarney 7/2
    160
  2. Leonardo Blu

    17:50 Windsor 7/4
    159
  3. Dervo Annie

    18:30 Killarney 8/1
    158
OR Official Rating OR — Official RatingThe BHA handicapper’s assessment of a horse’s ability. Used to set the weight it carries in handicaps.
  1. Presentandcounting

    16:42 Newton Abbot 9/2
    117
  2. Muskerry Rock

    16:42 Newton Abbot 11/8
    115
  3. Gore Point

    14:42 Newton Abbot 4/7
    109
TS Topspeed TS — TopspeedAn independent speed figure benchmark. Read alongside SR for a second opinion on raw pace.

No qualifying rating today.

Cross-system agreement

Systems ConsensusSystems ConsensusWhen multiple independent Saturday Racing engines (AI models, Sly Man, Mr Fox, market read) land on the same horse. Cross-system agreement is unusual and worth taking seriously.

The horses Saturday Racing's independent analytical engines all landed on. When four systems built on different signals agree, the market usually catches up quickly.

Market moves

The MoneyThe MoneyThe board’s view of the race — which horses the market is backing, which it’s abandoning, and by how much.

What the boards are telling us.

Steamers — sharp money coming inSteamerA horse whose odds have shortened significantly as the market backs it. Sharp money coming in.

Drifters — sanity checkDrifterA horse whose odds have lengthened as the market cools on it. Sanity-check signal — sometimes right, sometimes wrong.

Contextual edges

The Angles

The situational reads.

Trainer hot streak

14 days
  1. John Butler 41.7% (5/12) · 3 today
  2. Christopher Mason 37.5% (3/8) · 1 today
  3. Nick Scholfield 33.3% (3/9) · 4 today
  4. John & Thady Gosden 33.3% (6/18) · 2 today
  5. David Pipe 33.3% (4/12) · 1 today

Jockey upgrade

New pilot
  1. Make It Up 20:40 Lingfield (AW) Marco Ghiani (29.7%) up from Harry Davies (2.6%)
    11/2 🥈 2nd
  2. Pickering Castle 18:40 Lingfield (AW) Joey Haynes (37.5%) up from Luke Morris (14.5%)
    25/1 6th
  3. Phlox 19:30 Killarney Ben Coen (20.9%) up from Jamie Powell (0.0%)
    15/2 6th
  4. Hayynah 19:20 Windsor Stevie Donohoe (20.0%) up from Tom Marquand (2.0%)
    28/1 10th
  5. Vishaya 18:30 Killarney Dylan Browne McMonagle (16.7%) up from Declan McDonogh (0.0%)
    5/1 🥈 2nd

Course & distance

Specialist
  1. Morcar 20:20 Windsor 2 wins at Windsor 1m2f
    15/2 🥈 2nd

Class dropper

-1 class
  1. Crazy Cubana 17:10 Lingfield (AW) Class 1 → Class 5 (drop 4)
    7/4 🥉 3rd
  2. Gressington 15:30 Ayr Class 4 → Class 6 (drop 2)
    13/2 4th
  3. Simply Ruby 17:05 Ayr Class 3 → Class 5 (drop 2)
    11/1 6th
  4. Ardad Steve 18:10 Lingfield (AW) Class 2 → Class 4 (drop 2)
    5/2 🏆 WON
  5. Dannick 18:40 Lingfield (AW) Class 4 → Class 6 (drop 2)
    4/1 🏆 WON