Faoladh won two starts back. Only sixth last time, but first-time tongue-tie may sharpen him. Fourth on our figures with a useful speed rating (78) and proven over today's trip and going, he's competitive without looking the standout.
Form last 6946316
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR—RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight 10-2 with inconsistent form 946316 and a modest Saturday Rating of 70 limits Faoladh's prospects at 13/2.
Chester Nimitz tops our figures at 79 having won four starts back, but back-to-back below-par ninths since are hard to ignore. Already proven over today's trip and quick to return within 12 days, he's the one to beat on rating if repeating that decisive form.
Form last 601-599
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR—RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 68 with inconsistent form showing three consecutive 9s, Chester Nimitz carries top weight of 10-0 at 6/1.
Yet to win in five starts but fairly consistent with a pair of fourths last twice, Loingseoir could find more with first-time tongue-tie applied. Third on our figures despite a modest mark of 70 and proven over today's trip, a 27-day gap is the main query.
Form last 60-9744
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR—RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Loingseoir's poor form (0-9744), low Saturday Rating of 61, and unfavoured 9/1 odds undermine confidence despite carrying 10-0.
A below-par run last time follows solid placed efforts two and three starts back, and first-time cheekpieces should sharpen his finish nicely. Yet to win in his last five starts, but the placed form claims make him one to take seriously over this ground and trip.
Form last 6-00328
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR—RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Weak Saturday Rating of 61, poor recent form (-00328), and 11/1 odds signal minimal market confidence.
Surpass And Shine won twice in his last five starts, but both wins came before a pair of below-par efforts, and he now returns from a lengthy 334-day absence. Proven over today's trip and going, the ability is there but the long layoff is a real concern.
Form last 619100-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR—RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 58, long odds of 14/1, and a form string showing inconsistency across six runs justifies only 2 stars.
Second on our figures despite below-par efforts in his last two starts, Imperial Dream ran creditably before that with a fourth and a second. Proven over today's trip and going and returning after a 65-day gap, the main question is whether that recent dip continues.
Form last 66240-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR—RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Poor form (6240-0), high weight (9-11), and weak 22/1 odds combine with a Saturday Rating of just 46 to justify one star.
Yet to win in five starts and often below-par, Carrigans Grove carries a notably higher speed rating (83) than her form suggests, and first-time cheekpieces plus a swift 7-day turnaround could spark improvement. Proven over today's trip and going but only tenth of fifteen, she has plenty to prove.
Form last 60-8400
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
56SR—RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Weak Saturday Rating of 56, poor form showing 0-8400, and unfancied 16/1 odds confirm minimal winning prospects.
Yet to win in five starts, Hugo's Girl has still been fairly consistent with three placed efforts including a second and two thirds. Quick to return within 7 days and already proven over today's distance, she's the type to go well without necessarily taking the top prize.
Form last 6-30324
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 67 and uninspiring form of -30324 at 9-9 weight make 5/1 odds difficult to support.
Yet to win in five starts, Green Kite did show he retains ability with a solid second last time, though that followed moderate form including an eighth. Down in twelfth of fifteen on our figures with a modest speed rating (64), he's up against it here.
Form last 620-842
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 62, inconsistent form (20-842), and a 9-8 weight burden make 7/1 odds difficult to trust.
Yet to win in four starts, Contrary To Law's form has been moderate, with a fourth three starts back the highlight. First-time hood may help following a 35-day break, and proven over today's distance, he sits mid-pack at sixth of fifteen on our figures.
Form last 694-67
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR—RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Moderate Saturday Rating of 73, poor recent form (94-67), and a heavy 9-6 weight burden make 3/1 odds unappealing.
Yet to win in four starts and rarely competitive of late, with a fifth his best recent effort, Unidos sits low on our figures (61) and only thirteenth of fifteen. He's at least proven over today's distance, but there's little in the recent form to inspire confidence.
Form last 650-80
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR—RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Unidos rates just 43 with 40/1 odds and poor 50-80 form, making a winning case impossible.
Lightly raced with only three recent starts, Belle Nuit has yet to win but ran a fair fourth two starts back. She returns from a lengthy 248-day absence, and although proven over today's distance, the extended gap and thin sample make her hard to fully trust.
Form last 6540-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR—RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Long odds of 18/1, weak form figures of 540-, and a low Saturday Rating of 51 signal minimal winning prospects.
Yet to win in six starts and rarely on the premises, Rappell carries a notably higher speed rating (76) than his placings suggest, and first-time blinkers could spark improvement. Proven over today's distance and going but only eleventh of fifteen, he remains hard to trust fully.
Form last 6900906
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Poor form figures of 900906 and a low Saturday Rating of 54 make 9/1 odds reflect justified market skepticism.
Yet to win in five starts, all of which have ended unplaced, Peig Sayers has a testing profile to turn around. Proven over today's distance with a slightly better speed figure (63) than her placings suggest, but fourteenth of fifteen on our figures, she's hard to fancy.
Form last 6000-00
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR—RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Odds of 50/1, a Saturday Rating of just 32, and a winless form string of 000-00 leave Peig Sayers with little appeal.
Yet to win in five starts and unplaced in three of her last four, Sonoma Sunset sits bottom of our figures at 46 and rock bottom on the speed figures too. Proven over today's distance, but everything about her recent form and figures points against her here.
Form last 66900-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
33SR—RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 33, 40/1 odds, and a form line of 6900-0 offer no credible winning case.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Contrary To Law owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4J P MurtaghBen Coen
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Hugo's Girl
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Thomas Dowling✓ Value Signal
Unidos
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Mark Fahey◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Contrary To Law leads the field on SR (73) and carries a very manageable 9-6, giving it a meaningful weight advantage over the top two in the market — Faoladh (10-2) and Chester Nimitz (10-0). The 17% market steamers is the strongest market signal in the race and comes from J P Murtagh's yard (11% strike rate, 585 runners — a yard that places horses deliberately), with Ben Coen aboard at 12% career strike rate from 584 rides. The hood headgear (HG:h) worn for the first time suggests the stable is making a specific tactical intervention to unlock improvement. The DistFit:- is a genuine flag at 7f, but at 3/1 with the money coming in and top connections optimising the preparation, Contrary To Law is the most compelling case in a weak field.
Each-way alternative: Hugo's Girl.
Main danger: Faoladh — Faoladh (SR:70, 13/2) is the second-highest-rated runner and has shown consistent recent activity (20 days since last run), but the 10-2 top-weight burden on good-to-firm ground is a significant ask in a 15-runner handicap.
ShortlistContrary To Law, Faoladh, Hugo's Girl, Chester Nimitz