Roi De Coeur's last three runs have brought 5th, 6th and 7th, yet he still tops our figures. Winless in that spell, he returns 23 days on from a run over today's trip, and rates the biggest danger despite the absence of a recent placing.
Form last 6765
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Roi De Coeur's poor form of 765, low Saturday Rating of 57, and 9/1 odds signal a market lacking confidence.
Thestral was a close 3rd last time out, having been runner-up two starts before that, and that progressive trend makes him our selection here. Proven over today's trip and ground, with a win among his last five starts, he looks sure to go close.
Form last 61-8023
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR—RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 61 and inconsistent form (1-8023) at 9/1 suggest limited winning prospects under 9-9.
Tales Old As Time's last three starts brought unplaced, 8th and a 3rd (three back), but he steps in today after a 258-day absence. Trip and ground are both proven, so he can't be ruled out from midfield, though that lay-off is the obvious concern.
Form last 6380-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of just 40, poor form (380-), and 33/1 odds signal minimal winning prospects here.
Thisonesforyou won three starts back but has since dipped, with a 5th two runs later and a 9th last time out. He returns 25 days on, with today's trip already covered, leaving him a workable midfield type rather than a standout on our figures.
Form last 66815-9
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated just 51 with poor form figures of 6815-9 and drifting at 18/1, Thisonesforyou carries 9-7 with no market confidence.
Music Academy's recent form reads 6th, 7th, 3rd and 9th, her best a 3rd three starts back, and she remains winless in that spell. Trip and ground are both proven, but she rates near the bottom of this field and looks held on the evidence so far.
Form last 69-376
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR—RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 56, poor form (9-376), and 12/1 odds signal minimal market confidence in Music Academy.
Katalyst has yet to threaten in this sequence, her form reading unplaced, 4th, 6th, 5th and 6th, with a best of 4th two starts back. First-time blinkers today offer a possible wake-up call, but she still ranks near the foot of our figures on what she's shown.
Form last 665-640
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 39, 33/1 odds, and poor form figures of 65-640 leave Katalyst with no credible winning claims.
Roccobear ran an eye-catching 2nd four starts back and was a solid 3rd last time out, with trip and ground both proven. He returns 57 days after that run and rates one of the biggest threats on our figures, the lay-off his main concern.
Form last 6-82563
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Carrying top weight 9-6 with a Saturday Rating of 54, poor recent form -82563, and dismissed by the market at 14/1 makes Roccobear a weak selection.
Sports Day's form has been mixed, a promising 2nd three starts back sandwiched by lesser efforts, including an unplaced run last time out. He returns 23 days on with trip and ground both proven, leaving him with modest each-way claims from midfield.
Form last 67-3260
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR—RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 67, declining form (7-3260), and a 9-6 weight burden make 4/1 an unattractive market proposition.
Torbados ran a creditable 3rd four starts back, and although the finishes either side have been modest, he ranks highly on our figures for this race. He returns 43 days on with first-time blinkers fitted, and looks a leading threat, more consistency the obvious ask.
Form last 6036-05
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR—RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Torbados has a low Saturday Rating of 45, poor form of 036-05, and weak 20/1 odds offering little confidence.
Ten Cuidado's best in this sequence was a 4th three starts back, either side of which he was well beaten, and he now returns from a 189-day absence. He has raced over today's trip before, but sits bottom of our figures and looks up against it.
Form last 60470-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
38SR—RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 38, distant 50/1 odds, and a winless form string of 0470- combine to make Ten Cuidado a weak contender.
Positive Thoughts was runner-up five starts back but dipped through the middle of that sequence, rallying only to 5th last time out. First-time cheekpieces today, and a proven relationship with this trip, could help, but she needs to rediscover that early form to feature strongly.
Form last 624-695
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR—RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
A Saturday Rating of 54 and weak form figures of 24-695 make 12/1 odds and 9-4 weight an unappealing market proposition.
Blue Celestial has been remarkably consistent without a win, with 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 4th across her last six starts and a 2nd three back her best. A quick reappearance 10 days on, proven trip and ground, and a yard in good recent form all support her each-way claims.
Form last 6473243
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
66SR—RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 66 with inconsistent form (473243) and carrying 9-3 at 6/1 suggests mid-tier potential without clear winning momentum.
Betty Lemon won last time out, the clear highlight of a sequence otherwise reading 4th, unplaced, 7th and 4th. Trip and ground are both proven, but she rates near the bottom of our figures here and needs to find more to trouble this field.
Form last 6470-41
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR—RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Betty Lemon's 57 Saturday Rating, 11/1 odds, and inconsistent 470-41 form make her an unlikely contender despite a winnable 9-1 weight.
Fallacious Promise strung together a 2nd, 2nd and 3rd before winning last time out, a clear upward trend. He returns just two days later, with trip and ground both proven, giving him solid claims, though such a rapid turnaround remains unproven.
Form last 6-92231
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR—RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Rated 73 with solid recent form (-92231) but top weight of 9-3 limits upside despite attractive 2/1 odds.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Fallacious Promise owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/8John ButlerLuke Morris
80%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Sports Day
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Michael Bell✓ Value Signal
Ten Cuidado
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Mark Usher◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Fallacious Promise is the clear class leader at SR:73 — 6 points clear of Sports Day (SR:67) and 7 clear of Blue Celestial (SR:66) — and the market has hammered this home with a 52% inward move to 2/1 favourite. Running off the same mark as its last win (MarkMv:=) means the handicapper hasn't punished it, and a last-time-out win (form reads -92231, rightmost digit 1) on just 2 days recovery suggests connections are confident the horse is in peak condition right now. John Butler's 14% strike rate is solid for this level and Luke Morris (11%, 1,308 runners) is a reliable AW specialist who will settle the horse correctly over 1m on Kempton's flat surface.
Each-way alternative: Blue Celestial.
Main danger: Sports Day — Sports Day (SR:67, 4/1) has steamed in 19% — the second-strongest market move in the race — and Tom Marquand's booking at 14% strike rate suggests professional confidence, making it the most credible threat to the favourite despite a '0' on its most recent run.
ShortlistFallacious Promise, Sports Day, Blue Celestial