Fairyhouse Winter Festival 28th & 29th November Rated Race · 1m5f200y
Solid Saturday Rating of 98 and consistent form (2104-2) at 3/1 are offset by a demanding 10-2 weight assignment.
Solid recent form (7134-1) and fair odds of 2/1 are tempered by a Saturday Rating of 99 and top weight of 10-1.
Buddy One's poor form (07/10-), low Saturday Rating of 57, and 22/1 odds signal minimal market confidence.
Poor form figure of 6/108- and a Saturday Rating of 89 limit confidence despite fair 3/1 odds and manageable 9-8 weight.
Rated 84 with workable 9-6 weight and improved recent form, but 10/1 odds suggest the market lacks confidence.
A mid-range Saturday Rating of 84, moderate 9/1 odds, and a form sequence showing a recent blank after placed efforts limits confidence to three stars.
A Saturday Rating of 71, weak 79-070 form, and 11/1 odds signal limited competitiveness at this level.
Rated 59 with poor form (3-6900) and 20/1 odds, Pavilion End shows little market confidence to justify selection.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Royal Hollow | 3/1 | — | 11/4 | 11/4 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 3.75 | 3/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Light Up The Dark | 2/1 | — | 15/8 | 15/8 | 2/1 open 2.88 | 2/1 open 2.88 | 2/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Buddy One | 28/1 open 21.00 | — | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Tounsivator | 3/1 | — | 11/4 open 4.33 | 11/4 open 4.33 | 3/1 open 4.33 | 3/1 open 4.33 | 3/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Sir Callisto | 14/1 open 11.00 | — | 14/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 Ladbrokes |
| 6 Chutzpal | 17/2 open 10.00 | — | 8/1 open 9.50 | 15/2 open 9.50 | 15/2 open 9.50 | 15/2 open 9.50 | 17/2 Bet365 |
| 7 Not Just Any Eagle | 12/1 open 12.00 | — | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Pavilion End | 20/1 | — | 18/1 | 20/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Light Up The Dark owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (55) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSolid recent form (7134-1) and fair odds of 2/1 are tempered by a Saturday Rating of 99 and top weight of 10-1.
Solid Saturday Rating of 98 and consistent form (2104-2) at 3/1 are offset by a demanding 10-2 weight assignment.
Poor form figure of 6/108- and a Saturday Rating of 89 limit confidence despite fair 3/1 odds and manageable 9-8 weight.
A mid-range Saturday Rating of 84, moderate 9/1 odds, and a form sequence showing a recent blank after placed efforts limits confidence to three stars.
A Saturday Rating of 71, weak 79-070 form, and 11/1 odds signal limited competitiveness at this level.
Rated 84 with workable 9-6 weight and improved recent form, but 10/1 odds suggest the market lacks confidence.
Rated 59 with poor form (3-6900) and 20/1 odds, Pavilion End shows little market confidence to justify selection.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Light Up The Dark (SR:99, 2/1) is the top-rated horse in the field and the market leader, trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien (15% strike rate, 1,384 career runners) — a yard that fires its shots with purpose. The form string 7134-1 shows a last-time-out win, and at age 5 this horse carries the most natural progression potential in the field. Despite running off a mark 8lb higher than that win (MarkMv:+8), the weight of 10-1 is manageable and the SR advantage of a clear 1-2lb over Royal Hollow is meaningful in a modest prize field. O'Brien pairing with J M Sheridan (12%, 544 runners) is a competent combination that often operates quietly before striking. Each-way alternative: Tounsivator. Main danger: Royal Hollow — Royal Hollow (SR:98, 3/1) is running off a mark 39lb lower than its last win (MarkMv:-39), the single biggest mark drop in the field — if that reflects a genuine assessment of current ability rather than just a long layoff, this horse is well-treated and could easily find the winning mark within its reach at a competitive price.