Paxtons Number 1 For Case IH Handicap Hurdle · 2m4f28y
Failed to build on an encouraging return over fences in November, but latest effort over hurdles following a break was a good step forward when a close second over C&D ten days ago; nudged up 3lb for that and yet to win in handicap company, which suggests she possibly remains on a tough enough mark.
But disappointing in four runs over hurdles since a spell chasing; has dropped to a good mark as a result and better run last time; down in grade; could go well.
Lightly raced; second hurdles win at Doncaster in March (second run at 2m5f, good to soft); stiffer task on this 7lb higher mark but a chance.
Grade 2 bumper winner at Aintree in April 2023; well beaten over hurdles on last two starts (stable debut latest) but he's shown some useful form in that code and is an interesting contender on this Flat debut.
Won a 3m handicap hurdle on soft ground at Carlisle in December 2024 but hasn't been out since; looks his stable's second string.
Pulled up on soft ground this month, after a layoff, but this three-time course winner is now only 1lb higher than when holding on for narrow C&D (good) success last summer; dangerous to ignore.
Useful novice two seasons ago, last win over 2m here in March 2025; below his best on both starts last season; cheekpieces now tried; needs to bounce back.
Pulled up over fences at Kelso when last seen out having won a Carlisle handicap chase (3m, good) in October; runs over hurdles for the first time for more than two years (C&D winner in October 2023); second run after wind op.
Has won eight of his 21 races over hurdles; doesn't seem to be the force of old as was pulled up at Haydock last time having finished last of eight on previous hurdle run.
Won over hurdles in France (2m3f, heavy); some fair form since joining Micky Hammond and was a close second at Sedgefield in November (2m4f, soft) but hasn't run since.
Bidding for a C&D hat-trick having won here on last two starts (soft/good); has gone up 9lb but has run well off much higher marks in the past; could go well.
Won a Hamilton handicap for Stuart Coltherd in September (1m5f, good to soft); subsequently changed yards and promising third over 2m here on stable debut after a break last week (good); should improve on that but yet to prove he is as effective at this trip.
No bookmaker prices recorded yet for this race. Prices land after the first odds sync.
Gardener owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (76) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
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Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
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AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalLightly raced; second hurdles win at Doncaster in March (second run at 2m5f, good to soft); stiffer task on this 7lb higher mark but a chance.
But disappointing in four runs over hurdles since a spell chasing; has dropped to a good mark as a result and better run last time; down in grade; could go well.
Bidding for a C&D hat-trick having won here on last two starts (soft/good); has gone up 9lb but has run well off much higher marks in the past; could go well.
Grade 2 bumper winner at Aintree in April 2023; well beaten over hurdles on last two starts (stable debut latest) but he's shown some useful form in that code and is an interesting contender on this Flat debut.
Won a Hamilton handicap for Stuart Coltherd in September (1m5f, good to soft); subsequently changed yards and promising third over 2m here on stable debut after a break last week (good); should improve on that but yet to prove he is as effective at this trip.
Useful novice two seasons ago, last win over 2m here in March 2025; below his best on both starts last season; cheekpieces now tried; needs to bounce back.
Won over hurdles in France (2m3f, heavy); some fair form since joining Micky Hammond and was a close second at Sedgefield in November (2m4f, soft) but hasn't run since.
Failed to build on an encouraging return over fences in November, but latest effort over hurdles following a break was a good step forward when a close second over C&D ten days ago; nudged up 3lb for that and yet to win in handicap company, which suggests she possibly remains on a tough enough mark.
Pulled up over fences at Kelso when last seen out having won a Carlisle handicap chase (3m, good) in October; runs over hurdles for the first time for more than two years (C&D winner in October 2023); second run after wind op.
Has won eight of his 21 races over hurdles; doesn't seem to be the force of old as was pulled up at Haydock last time having finished last of eight on previous hurdle run.