Roscommon 20:23 RESULTED

11 May 2026

Monday 11 May Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden · 1m4f46y

1248-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

Settled

12 declared
0 picked

Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 6 days ago

No.

Horse

Form

Jockey / Trainer

SR?

RPR

Age

Wgt

Votes

Odds

Pick

Comment

Carmel's Phoenix

Age 4 · 10-2

42-5

Gary Carroll 10%

Mark Fahey 14%

—

102

10-2

★★★☆☆

—

6/4

Two promising efforts last year in maidens at the Curragh and Bellewstown and posted a much higher RPR on seasonal return when under 9l off winner in Listed Noblesse Stakes over C&D last month (soft-to-heavy); interesting to see if she can run to her 86 rating here back in maiden company.

AI verdict

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Duvessa

Age 4 · 9-4

Dylan Browne McMonagle

Joseph Patrick O'Brien

—

9-4

★★★☆☆

—

7/2

Stayed on well over 1m2f on sole start last year at the Curragh; could go well stepped up in distance on first start for Joseph O'Brien.

AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Guy's Girl

Age 4 · 9-4

6560-5

W J Lee

W McCreery

—

9-4

★★★☆☆

—

9/1

Promise in turf maidens last year at 1m-1m1f; well-beaten off 75 on handicap debut at Dundalk (1m) in October; okay run in 1m maiden there when last seen in January; stamina to prove on return to turf.

AI verdict

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Harana

Age 4 · 9-4

Colin Keane

D K Weld

—

9-4

★★★☆☆

—

9/4

Plenty to like about her debut run at Gowran (1m, soft) last month, keeping on well for a 6l second of 14; stamina on dam side of pedigree so could improve for this longer trip; player.

AI verdict

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Hope N Pray

Age 4 · 9-4

Ronan Whelan

Jarlath P Fahey

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

125/1

200-1 and failed to beat a rival on debut at Naas last August; impossible to fancy.

AI verdict

SR 12 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 125/1.

Massarat

Age 4 · 9-4

Andrew Slattery

Josh Halley

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

66/1

Modest efforts in maidens at Dundalk and Gowran; will qualify for handicaps after this.

AI verdict

SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

Enchanted Lady

Age 4 · 9-4

Luke McAteer 8%

A Oliver 12%

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

50/1

Better on second run but still beaten nearly 10l when not seeing out 1m4f at Roscommon.

AI verdict

SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

Poet's Willow

Age 4 · 9-4

000

Mel Sheridan(10)

Fergal Birrane

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

125/1

Triple-figure odds for all three starts and ran accordingly; tongue-tie needs to have a transformative effect.

AI verdict

SR 17 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 125/1.

Tears I Nevercried

Age 4 · 9-4

Leigh Roche

E J O'Neill

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

100/1

50-1 and beaten 27l on debut at Gowran last month; may need more time.

AI verdict

SR 19 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.

Think About It

Age 4 · 9-4

49-805

Patrick McGettigan(5)

Thomas Patrick McGettigan

—

9-4

★☆☆☆☆

—

66/1

0-8 on turf and rated 57; not a bad effort in a Sligo handicap last time but a whole lot more needed back in a maiden.

AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

Al Rojo Vivo

Age 4 · 8-10

/080-0

Gavin Ryan 7%

Mrs Mary Whelehan 0%

—

8-10

★☆☆☆☆

—

125/1

Weak form in maidens; last of ten over 6f at Sligo last year on her only handicap attempt.

AI verdict

SR 33 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 125/1.

Marazion

Age 4 · 9-4

3437-1

Shane Foley 11%

Mrs John Harrington 10%

9-4

★★★☆☆

—

13/2

Makes her handicap debut off the back of gaining her first maiden win on her eighth career start at Roscommon last time (1m4f, good); her opening mark looks fair on what she has achieved; in the mix.

AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

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Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Carmel's Phoenix

Speculative

Carmel's Phoenix owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (57) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/4 Mark Fahey Gary Carroll

68% Confidence

⚠ Danger Runner

Harana

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · D K Weld

✓ Value Signal

Enchanted Lady

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · A Oliver

◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.

Speed rating Speculative

57 / 100

⚖ Weight 38% ＋21.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant

93 / 100

⚖ Weight 22% ＋20.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction

37 / 100

⚖ Weight 12% ＋2.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction

40 / 100

⚖ Weight 10% ＋4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant

54 / 100

⚖ Weight 10% ＋5.5 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal

60 / 100

⚖ Weight 8% ＋4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.

1 1. Carmel's Phoenix

59.0 6/4

2 6. Harana

57.6 9/4

3 3. Duvessa

54.7 7/2

4 14. Marazion

52.3 13/2

5 5. Guy's Girl

47.4 9/1

YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view

Carmel's Phoenix

Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly

📊

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability

🤖

★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance

🐾

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

Carmel's Phoenix

Age 4 · 10-2

6/4

J: Gary Carroll
T: Mark Fahey

★★★☆☆ SR 102 🐾 —

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Harana

Age 4 · 9-4

9/4

J: Colin Keane
T: D K Weld

★★★☆☆ SR 92 🐾 —

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Duvessa

Age 4 · 9-4

7/2

J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien

★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾 —

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Marazion

Age 4 · 9-4

13/2

J: Shane Foley
T: Mrs John Harrington

★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾 —

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Guy's Girl

Age 4 · 9-4

9/1

J: W J Lee
T: W McCreery

★★★☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Carmel's Phoenix

Confidence: Medium

Carmel's Phoenix leads the field with SR 102 and is trading at 6/4. The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-4 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Carmel's Phoenix, Marazion, Harana, Duvessa, Guy's Girl

Each-way: Marazion Danger: Harana

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m4f46y Distance to cover

Good Expected going

12 Confirmed runners

Roscommon Track and setting

Monday 11 May Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Catterick

Southwell

Killarney

Roscommon

Windsor

Wolverhampton (AW)

Balanced lens

Carmel's Phoenix

Harana

Enchanted Lady

Balanced

How the chamber read the race

See your angle before you make your move

Saturday Rating

AI Stars

Cub Votes

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

🗺 The Course Race conditions