Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) · 6f
Every runner. Every signal. One decision.
Rated 138 with solid form of 137, A Bear Affair's 9-2 odds and non-favourite status limit confidence to three stars.
Carrying 9-2 weight with limited form of just two runs, Agitator's 135 Saturday Rating fails to inspire confidence as a non-favourite.
Alfred Wallace's weak form figure of 51 and 9-2 weight assignment undermine confidence despite a 135 Saturday Rating.
Solid form figures of 12 and a Saturday Rating of 137 justify mid-tier appeal, but 9-2 odds suggest the market sees limited upside.
Boleto's winning form and solid 135 Saturday Rating are offset by carrying 9-2 weight without holding favourite market position.
Celeron's winning form and solid 135 Saturday Rating are offset by carrying 9-2 weight without holding favourite market status.
Carrying 9-2 weight with form showing only a single second place, Charted Course's 132 Saturday Rating lacks the winning evidence to inspire confidence.
Carrying 9-2 weight with a form reading of 22 and a Saturday Rating of 138, Dance A Jig lacks the winning form to inspire market confidence.
Carrying top weight of 9-2 with a form figure of 2 and starting as a non-favourite limits Dorigo's winning prospects despite a Saturday Rating of 134.
Moderate form figures of 51 and a 9-2 weight assignment limit confidence despite a competitive 136 Saturday Rating.
Ischgl's consistent 242 form and solid 135 Saturday Rating are offset by the 9-2 weight burden limiting upside.
Carrying 9-2 weight with modest form figures of 42 and a 134 Saturday Rating, King Of Cloughan lacks the market confidence to justify higher appeal.
Low Saturday Rating of 132, unfavourable 9-2 weight, and a single form figure of 2 undermine confidence despite market positioning.
Carrying 9-2 weight with a form figure of just 2 and a Saturday Rating of 134, Our Boy Bailey lacks the market confidence to justify a higher rating.
Carrying 9-2 weight with a win in form but rated 135 and not market favourite limits confidence to a mid-tier 3-star rating.
Solid Saturday Rating of 135 and winning form earn three stars, but 9-2 odds and non-favourite market status limit confidence.
Carrying top weight of 9-2 stone with only one form entry limits confidence despite a solid Saturday Rating of 135.
Moderate form figures of 24 and a Saturday Rating of 133 at 9-2 weight offer little confidence for a competitive Listed contest.
Moderate Saturday Rating of 135, unfancied in the market, and limited form figures of 10 undermine confidence.
Controlla's single run of form figure 2 and non-favourite market position undermine confidence despite a solid 135 Saturday Rating.
Moderate Saturday Rating of 138, inconsistent form figures of 41, and an 8-11 weight burden limit confidence despite market support.
Harlequin Sky's poor form figures of 35 and uncompetitive 135 Saturday Rating make this 8-11 weighted runner a weak market contender.
Moonrise rates 3/5 as a sole win in form and 8-11 weight leave questions unanswered despite a solid 138 Saturday Rating.
Moderate form figures of 34 and a below-par Saturday Rating of 135 at 8-11 weight offer little confidence in this non-favourite.
Carrying 8-11 with a form figure of 3 and not market leader, the 135 Saturday Rating reflects a competitive but unproven contender.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 A Bear Affair | 40/1 open 51.00 | — | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 Coral |
| 2 Agitator | 100/1 open 67.00 | — | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 100/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Alfred Wallace | 22/1 open 21.00 | — | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 Betfred |
| 4 Alpe d'Huez | 66/1 open 41.00 | — | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 41.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Boleto | 20/1 | — | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 open 23.00 | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 Coral |
| 6 Celeron | 15/2 open 13.00 | — | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 7/1 open 15.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 Bet365 |
| 7 Charted Course | 33/1 | — | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 Betfred |
| 8 Dance A Jig | 16/1 | — | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 open 19.00 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Dorigo | 80/1 open 67.00 | — | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Green Sovereign | 25/1 open 23.00 | — | 25/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 Betfred |
| 11 Ischgl | 80/1 open 67.00 | — | 66/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 12 King Of Cloughan | 28/1 open 23.00 | — | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 13 One Number | 13/2 open 8.00 | — | 7/1 | 7/1 | 7/1 open 8.50 | 7/1 open 7.50 | 7/1 Coral |
| 14 Our Boy Bailey | 50/1 open 34.00 | — | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 15 Ruler's Control | 16/1 open 12.00 | — | 16/1 open 11.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 16 Sale Shark | 13/2 open 8.50 | — | 13/2 open 9.00 | 13/2 open 9.00 | 13/2 open 9.50 | 7/1 open 9.00 | 7/1 Betfred |
| 17 Sergei Diaghilev | 5/2 open 3.25 | — | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 Coral |
| 18 Victory Gold | 28/1 open 26.00 | — | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 open 29.00 | 33/1 Coral |
| 19 Wild Terrain | 100/1 open 67.00 | — | 100/1 open 67.00 | 100/1 open 67.00 | 125/1 open 67.00 | 100/1 open 67.00 | 125/1 William Hill |
| 20 Controlla | 7/2 | — | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 Coral |
| 21 Freedom Flame | 66/1 open 41.00 | — | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 41.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 Bet365 |
| 22 Harlequin Sky | 125/1 open 101.00 | — | 125/1 open 101.00 | 125/1 open 101.00 | 125/1 open 101.00 | 100/1 open 126.00 | 125/1 Bet365 |
| 23 Moonrise | 40/1 open 26.00 | — | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 24 On The Queue Tee | 150/1 | — | 150/1 | 150/1 | 150/1 | 125/1 open 201.00 | 150/1 Bet365 |
| 25 Troublesome Guest | 50/1 | — | 66/1 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 50/1 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 Coral |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Sergei Diaghilev owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (75) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalCarrying top weight of 9-2 stone with only one form entry limits confidence despite a solid Saturday Rating of 135.
Controlla's single run of form figure 2 and non-favourite market position undermine confidence despite a solid 135 Saturday Rating.
Low Saturday Rating of 132, unfavourable 9-2 weight, and a single form figure of 2 undermine confidence despite market positioning.
Solid Saturday Rating of 135 and winning form earn three stars, but 9-2 odds and non-favourite market status limit confidence.
Celeron's winning form and solid 135 Saturday Rating are offset by carrying 9-2 weight without holding favourite market status.
Carrying 9-2 weight with a form reading of 22 and a Saturday Rating of 138, Dance A Jig lacks the winning form to inspire market confidence.
Carrying 9-2 weight with a win in form but rated 135 and not market favourite limits confidence to a mid-tier 3-star rating.
Boleto's winning form and solid 135 Saturday Rating are offset by carrying 9-2 weight without holding favourite market position.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
A Bear Affair (SR 138) sits joint-top of the SR rankings alongside Dance A Jig, Freedom Flame, and Moonrise, but his form string of 137 — showing a recent win after earlier experience — gives him the broadest and most battle-tested profile in the field. Richard Hannon is a specialist handler of precocious two-year-old sprinters and regularly targets the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Carrying 9-2 on Good to Firm ground over 6f is ideal for a sharp juvenile who has already encountered race-pace variation across three runs. Against a field where most runners are lightly raced debutant winners or single-run placers, the extra experience edge at this level is a meaningful differentiator. Each-way alternative: Moonrise. Main danger: Sergei Diaghilev — Aidan O'Brien's two-year-old juveniles trained specifically for Royal Ascot sprint targets carry significant stable firepower, and a debut winner (SR 135, form 1) from that yard at this meeting deserves maximum respect even if the SR sits just below the co-leaders.