Three-time winner signed off last season with excellent placed efforts in a Haydock Group 3 (1m, good) and a Listed event at Craon (1m, very soft); not disgraced behind Docklands in Listed Doncaster Mile on seasonal return; sharper for that and this British raider is respected.
Form last 66122-3
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR117RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Confirmed his liking for this venue when winning a Listed race here last season (Mutasarref a neck behind), his second C&D win; improving for each outing this season and should run his race but a rating of 99 leaves him with a fair amount to find with a few of these rivals.
Form last 629-863
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR115RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
No slouch but he has never raced above Listed level and looks like being a possible pacemaker for stablemate The Lion In Winter in this first Group attempt; clear bottom of this pack on handicap marks and should be swallowed up once his rivals get roaring.
Form last 6451-57
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR115RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Has won ten of his 30 starts, including four times at this venue at 7f-1m; most recent success came at Cork in October 2024 (1m, yielding) but ran some fine races last season, including when third in this; well behind a couple of these on seasonal return here last month but better expected now with that run under his belt; place chance.
Form last 63424-9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
99SR118RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two wins last season including a Goodwood handicap off 93 (1m4f, good); signed off with a Listed third at Dundalk (10.5f); slowly away and never involved on return at the Curragh (1m2f, soft); this ground much more his bag but not certain that the drop back to 1m will suit and overlooked by McMonagle.
Form last 65163-9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR108RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Course handicap winner at 1m1f; cracking effort when 2.5l fourth in Listed Heritage Stakes over C&D (yld-sft) last month when he had three of these behind despite not getting the clearest of runs; acts on good ground and seems to be improving; a bit to find on the figures, but could go very well.
Form last 6221-34
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR109RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won 1m2f filles' maiden here on debut (good); subsequently placed in Navan Group 3 (1m2f, soft) and in Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot (1m4f, gd-fm) when the 2-1 favourite; testing ground may not have suited on seasonal return in the Park Express at the Curragh (1m, sft-hvy); should improve for that and yard red-hot, but needs to prove effectiveness for this trip.
Form last 6123-4
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
101SR110RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
No bookmaker prices recorded yet for this race.
Prices land after the first odds sync.
Excellent Believe owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (59) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Jack ChannonTom Marquand
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Alcantor
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/2 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien✓ Value Signal
Lord Massusus
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Joseph G Murphy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Excellent Believe leads the field with SR 107 and is trading at . The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-9 is manageable for a horse of this class.