LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cosi Bello
7/1Form of 1124-1 is the race's strongest recent sequence; 9-4 weight is workable, and 7/1 reflects genuine market respect in a 32-runner field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Royal Velvet
12/1SR 92, form 815-11, William Buick in the saddle — the weight of 9-9 is the only real drag on a horse that arrives in form.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
River King
11/1Form 231-21 under 9-2 for a yard that knows handicaps; Pat Dobbs has placed this horse consistently and the weight is fair.
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4Predicted 4th
Mezcala
14/1Form 127-13 for Jack Channon shows a horse capable of hitting the frame; 9-1 weight and Tom Marquand in the plate makes 14/1 a reasonable each-way marker.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Morshdi
7/1SR-leader in the field at 104, a six-point edge over the next-best. Haggas form travels, Marquand suits, and a genuine pace set up by Generic plays directly to his late kick.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Endorsement
9/4SR 99 and Ryan Moore will not let him drift far from the frame; the inconsistency in his form stops him getting past Morshdi but the talent is there for a placed effort.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Maho Bay
8/1Buick on a horse that already has a win on the board (1-14 form), and the pace shape suits his pressing style; SR 96 is workable at this price.
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4Predicted 4th
Oxagon
7/1Oisin Murphy on a Gosden-trained runner at 7/1 demands respect despite SR 97 and patchy form; the step up in trip could unlock something but the evidence is thin.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Laureate Crown
14/1SR 87, back-to-back wins, 3lb lighter than top-rated Organise, Jamie Spencer waiting tactics built for exactly this race shape at 14/1.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Organise
15/2Field-topping SR 89, James Doyle booked, and 1-12 recent form is solid — but 9-7 on the back of a near-miss last time is a genuine ask in a 32-runner cavalry charge.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Langstone
12/1SR 86, form reads 5-112 — progressive, light weight at 8-13, and Rob Hornby is a competent big-field Ascot pilot for Clive Cox, a trainer who targets these races.
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4Predicted 4th
We're Goosers
8/1SR 87 with Oisin Murphy engaged at 8/1 is a serious pairing, but 221-61 form reads as a horse finding improvement harder to come by at this class level.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Scandinavia
13/8SR 109 leads the field, form 111-11 is the most consistent sequence in the race, and Moore delivers winners at this level when the horse warrants it.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rahiebb
4/1Last-run winner, SR 108, and Varian's record with stayers at peak fitness; 2342-1 shows he runs his race every time and will chase the winner home.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Trawlerman
7/2SR 112 is the highest in the field and Buick rarely wastes a journey; fitness post-break is the caveat, but class will drag him into the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Caballo De Mar
9/1Last-run second gives Caballo De Mar solid recent form credentials and Oisin Murphy will ensure he's competitive over this trip, but SR 107 caps his ceiling.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dark Lucinda
20/1SR-138 is the highest in the field, her unbeaten record holds up under scrutiny, and 20/1 is a significant market misread against a field topped by SR-104 at favourite.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Legacy Link
13/8SR-104, positive recent form of 314-12, Gosden yard, Keane in the saddle — she runs her race to the line but the SR gap to the winner is decisive.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gilded Prize
7/2Murphy will get a strong tune out of her and the 7/2 market price reflects genuine each-way claims, but SR-102 and two recent defeats at the top level cap her ceiling here.
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4Predicted 4th
Earth Shot
11/2SR-94 is modest but her 2-12 form includes a win at this class of race, and Doyle can coax a forward-jumping display that earns a place in the frame if pace is slow.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Arc Ole Ole
12/1Back-to-back wins, featherweight 8-8, and a pace set up for late finishers — this horse's trajectory is the sharpest in the field at a price the market has left unattended.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Into The Light
5/1Form 122, William Buick engaged, SR 70 is low but the 5/1 market signal is the strongest in the race — prominent run likely to collect a place at minimum.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Enceladus
10/1Ryan Moore, 8-12, form ending in a win — the 33-1 last run was a step up and Moore rarely wastes a ride in a Heritage Handicap at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
Heyzoom
13/2Form 3-21 shows a recent win, 8-8 weight, and Saffie Osborne's booking at 13/2 implies stable confidence in a horse that handles a good-ground mile-and-three.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sea Venture
11/2SR 138 on 9-0 weight is the single best combination of class and weight allowance in the race; George Scott's filly is unbeaten and gets a true gallop to aim at.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Time For The Moon
6/1Joint-highest SR at 137, market support at 6/1, and a trainer in Charlie Johnston who rarely misses at this level with a prepared juvenile.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aperoll
9/1SR 138 and the same weight relief as Sea Venture at 9-0; Richard Hannon's colt gets the trip and Pat Dobbs keeps it simple from a clean draw.
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4Predicted 4th
Aix La Chapelle
7/4SR 135 with Ryan Moore aboard keeps him in the frame, but topweight of 9-5 against higher-rated rivals on lighter terms erodes the market case.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sergei Diaghilev
unpricedRyan Moore's booking for O'Brien's sole runner, a clean winning debut, and the pace setup across a true six furlongs all point here. SR 135 is honest but the connections elevate t…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moonrise
unpricedSR 138 — the joint-top mark — with an 8-11 pull in the weights and a winning debut under PJ McDonald for Balding. Three pounds lighter than most rivals is a real asset in a sprint…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
A Bear Affair
unpricedJoint-top SR 138 and a solid form string of 1-3-7 showing genuine placed consistency. Sean Levey and Richard Hannon know Ascot sprints; this colt picks up prize money.
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4Predicted 4th
Celeron
unpricedUnbeaten, Colin Keane booked from the O'Callaghan yard, SR 135 is competitive. Front-running style risks getting swamped late but the talent to fill a place is clearly there.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
All Moonshine
unpricedThree wins from last four, lightest competitive weight in the leading group at 8-8, Watson retains the ride — the form and weight combination is the clearest edge in this field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumba Numba
unpricedLast run was a win, same weight of 8-9, Varian and Mitchell a strong combination — Rumba Numba is the horse most likely to beat the selection.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Radiant Beauty
unpricedRyan Moore does not take Ascot rides for fun; 113 form earlier in her sequence is class that a bounce-back run can reproduce on Good to Firm ground.
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4Predicted 4th
Gaga Girl
unpricedSR 81 is the second-highest in the field and she ran a recent 12 sequence, but 9-4 at the top of the weights is a stiff ask in a 25-runner cavalry charge.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Indalo
8/1SR:92 on a fair 9-0, Dawson's claim reduces the burden further, and a form line of 1412-2 screams a horse ready to convert. The searching pace set by Holloway Boy plays directly t…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Archivist
10/1SR:95 is the highest realistic claim among horses with live credentials, and James McDonald rarely gets on the wrong horse at Ascot; 9-7 prevents him from winning but not from fil…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mister Winston
14/1Form of 40-161 shows Oisin Murphy found the key last time; SR:93 on just 9-4 is a fair weight, and Balding knows how to target these heritage handicaps on Ascot's straight mile.
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4Predicted 4th
Jagged Edge
11/1Form reads 1010-1, three wins from five finishing positions — he knows how to win. SR:82 is modest but Colin Keane will place him perfectly and 9-4 is workable in this field.
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