LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Kingdom Of Camelot
5/4Ryan Moore at 24% strike rate, Aidan O'Brien's yard at 20% in the past 14 days, and a 5/4 market that has absorbed significant support — the strongest combined signals in the fiel…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Cluster
9/4Third on debut, Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard at 20% strike rate, Colin Keane booked — the step up in trip is the only open question, but this is the obvious danger to the favouri…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Breath Of Paradise
6/1Two runs showing improvement from 12/1 to 25/1 and back into 6/1 today; Mrs Harrington's yard at 12% and the form line of 4-3 warrants each-way respect at the price.
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4Predicted 4th
Capability Brown
8/1Aidan O'Brien's yard in form but the 7lb weight rise is a real concern; Lordan can get him placed but that penalty argues against a winning effort today.
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Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hmas Perth
10/11Strongest scored rank at 6.73, sharpest market move in the race (+1.2 positive driver), O'Brien yard at 20% strike rate, and lone front-runner with pace control — all signals poin…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Raging Bull
9/4Ryan Moore at 24% career strike rate keeps this live despite the drift; 9/4 with O'Brien behind him means he'll be competitive even if the market has preferred his stablemate.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Yellow Sky
16/1Two runs of improving form (5 then 6), SP tightened from 33/1 to 17/2 last time — J.P. Murtagh's runner with a form trajectory is the best each-way case among the mid-priced debut…
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4Predicted 4th
Maximilien Luce
10/1Unexposed O'Brien debutant at 10/1 in a yard running hot — the stable's third string in this race has unquantified upside and the right connections for a debut winner.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Addison Grey
4/1Distance, going and class all positive; Rossa Ryan retained; Clive Cox at 16% in 14 days. Sword Maker's solo front-run sets up exactly the pace Addison Grey needs to pounce.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Five Ways
16/1The steamer is real and Balding's yard is functional; hold-up style suits a genuine gallop, though the going negative and weak form make this second, not first.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Huscal
11/2Two-from-two winning sequence and an 8lb weight drop scream live each-way play; cold Hills yard and a class rise temper expectations to the frame rather than the spoils.
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4Predicted 4th
The Fingal Raven
7/1Jamie Osborne's yard is the hottest in this field at 23% over 14 days; a massive 11lb weight drop and seven days' turnaround suggest connections see something here at 7/1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ruby Sands
3/1Top of the model, market confident at 3/1 with no drift, and a debut third is the strongest single form reference in this field. Marquand's booking seals it.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
La Pittura
9/1Balding yard at 16% form, Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate, and a fourth on debut at the same class level — she is a place banker and the likeliest to trouble Ruby Sands.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Queen Of The Gulf
9/2Richard Hughes's debutante holds market support at 9/2 despite no public form — Billy Loughnane's 18% strike rate and a stable that doesn't send first-timers without expectation.
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4Predicted 4th
Ozone Friendly
17/2The debut second gives her genuine each-way credentials, but the two-class rise, market drift, and hold-up style on a day where pace may not fully develop limits her to fourth.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hand of God
17/2Drops a class, distance and going both positive, steaming in the market, and Charlton's yard is at a 23% strike rate — every composite signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Bourbon Blues
11/1Won last time out, Ryan Moore retains the ride, and the yard is at 25% — a three-year-old with upside who profiles as the biggest danger to the selection.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gavriel
4/1Market-backed favourite with clean 41-21 form from the Gosden yard, but the unproven going and class rise cap confidence for the win position.
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4Predicted 4th
Wild Thoughts
14/1A steamer at 14/1, won last time at 11/4F, and Richard Spencer's yard is ticking over — the most interesting value in the bottom half of the weights.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Inner City Blues
6/4Two wins from two starts, both as short-priced favourite; William Buick booked; Appleby's yard at a staggering 61% strike rate. The model's joint-top score with superior human-fac…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Push The Boat Out
4/1Perfect two-from-two record and the model has him level with the winner on deterministic score — the chief danger is real, but Foley at 11% versus Buick at 25% is the gap.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Orthodox
5/2Solid form book and a Cox yard that finds winners at 16%, but the weight rise and a sixth last time out make the 5/2 market position generously short — third is his realistic ceil…
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4Predicted 4th
Marco Polo
11/2The lone front-runner at 11/2 with Ryan aboard and an explosive last win at 1/8F — if he's allowed to dictate unchallenged he can pinch fourth, though the class step catches him l…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sun Goddess
11/8Top of the model at 6.71, four consecutive wins at shortening odds, Ryan Moore aboard, and a pace shape that suits a quality finisher on good Newmarket ground.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Senorita Bonita
15/8Form is solid at 1211 and Oisin Murphy is a top jockey, but the 6lb weight rise and a yard striking at 5% are real concerns in a Group 1 sprint.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Libertango
9/2Scored 5.81 by the model with a 1121 form string, but the market drift is a red flag — third is the ceiling here with Boughey's yard at 18%.
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4Predicted 4th
Moonrise
20/1The model's second-ranked horse at 5.93 and fresh off a win 21 days ago, but 20/1 in the market suggests the wider form has been interrogated and found wanting.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
First Law
3/1Buick's split-yard booking over Quest For Stars, 25% career strike rate, two wins from two at SP 8/11 and 6/4, and a yard firing at 61% — the signals converge.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Quest For Stars
4/1Model top-pick at 6.71, distance-positive, same dominant yard, three wins from four — stablemate danger is real and Billy Loughnane won't give up easily.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Haffner
4/1Distance and going fit both positive, Ryan Moore aboard, and a hot early pace from multiple front-runners sets up his hold-up style perfectly.
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4Predicted 4th
Burning Up
11/4K.R. Burke at 20% yard strike rate, a weight drop of 7lb, and a perfect 11 form string keep Burning Up honest despite stepping up two class levels.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Zephyra
10/1Three consecutive placed runs, steamering in the market, Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate aboard — a genuine gallop over seven furlongs finally gives her the conditions to break th…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Sierra Belle
4/1A Ralph Beckett filly with three wins in her last four starts and a proven distance flag; the drift to 4/1 is noted but the underlying form demands respect at the each-way places.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Al Samsama
7/1Back-to-back wins with a form string of 12 and Billy Loughnane in the plate; the +3lb rise is manageable and she's one of the few proven winners at this class level.
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4Predicted 4th
Fire Thunder
9/2Distance-positive flag, going-positive flag, and a form string showing tenacity — the 8-8 weight is the lightest in the field, giving Silvestre De Sousa every chance to close late.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Waterford Castle
10/3SR 95 leads the field, distance and going fit confirmed, Boughey yard at 18% in form. Consistent market favourite who races at class level — no credible reason to oppose.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Go Rimbaud
11/2SR 92, distance-fit, Gosden yard at 18% — but stepping up in class and drifting in the market today undermines the confidence the form otherwise earns.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Joulany
7/2SR 91, class drop, going fit — but 99 days off the track and a drifting price at 7/2 suggest connections are managing expectations on the return.
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4Predicted 4th
Mythical Bird
17/2Hughie Morrison's yard is running hot at 21%, and the SR 82 is modest — but recency (7 days since last run) and a weight relief of 3lb make this the value outsider at 17/2.
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