All Moonshine Burns Brightest at Ascot
Four wins in five starts says ignore the handicapper's weight at your peril
All Moonshine is the horse this race has been waiting to reveal. Andrew Balding's four-year-old carries just 8-8 into a 25-runner Kensington Palace Stakes and arrives on a sequence that reads 31-11 — that rightmost figure is a win, the one before it is a win, and the one before that is a win. Three victories from her last four starts, each one building on the last, and now Balding sends her to Ascot on Good to Firm ground, a surface that suits a filly who travels on top of the turf rather than through it. Jason Watson keeps the ride, a continuity booking that tells you Balding is not messing about. SR of 80 is workmanlike by the scale, yes, but in a field where the highest-rated runner, Stateira, tops out at 87 and carries a stone more in weight, the gap narrows dramatically once you factor the burden at the head of affairs.
The danger I respect most is Rumba Numba, who ran a 6124-1 form sequence that ends in a win and gets in off 8-9 with Jack Mitchell booked for Roger Varian — a yard that does not waste ammunition in Class 2 fillies' handicaps at Royal Ascot week without intent. Gaga Girl (SR 81, 9-4) is better-rated but that weight is a real ask for a filly whose form reads 642-12 and who has not won at this level. Radiant Beauty showed 113-61 for James Owen and Ryan Moore's presence demands respect, but that last run was a six — she is coming off a backward step. All Moonshine wins this race.
The Shape of the Race
With 25 fillies in a mile handicap at Ascot, the pace will be genuine from the off. Betty Clover and American Gal have both shown front-running tendencies and will push forward early. Song N Dance, with her 211-22 form suggesting she races prominently, will tuck in behind the leaders rather than lead. Rhapsody typically races in midfield off a strong pace. All of this sets up a searching gallop that will suit a filly like All Moonshine, who travels fluently and finishes with a clean, sustained kick rather than a sharp injection of speed.
The Storylines
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Balding yard firing at will Andrew Balding saddles All Moonshine having already had her winning twice in recent weeks, a yard clearly in peak mid-summer form.
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Varian fires Rumba Numba Roger Varian booked Jack Mitchell for Rumba Numba, whose last run was a win off this identical weight — Varian does not waste Ascot entries.
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Moore on Radiant Beauty — but why Ryan Moore's booking for Radiant Beauty demands a second look despite a latest run of six, as James Owen rarely calls on Moore without genuine expectation.
How it Finishes
LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4. Result lands when the race settles.
All Moonshine
Three wins from last four, lightest competitive weight in the leading group at 8-8, Watson retains the ride — the form and weight combination is the clearest edge in this field.
Rumba Numba
Last run was a win, same weight of 8-9, Varian and Mitchell a strong combination — Rumba Numba is the horse most likely to beat the selection.
Radiant Beauty
Ryan Moore does not take Ascot rides for fun; 113 form earlier in her sequence is class that a bounce-back run can reproduce on Good to Firm ground.
Gaga Girl
SR 81 is the second-highest in the field and she ran a recent 12 sequence, but 9-4 at the top of the weights is a stiff ask in a 25-runner cavalry charge.
All Moonshine is the bet. Three wins from four starts is a form profile that stands out immediately in this field, and 8-8 is exactly the weight you want to be carrying in a big-field Ascot handicap where the topweights are giving away lumps. The conviction here is medium rather than high only because the 25-runner field introduces placement risk — she needs a clean run in a race that will be chaotic off the stalls. Take win singles at whatever price opens. Two units each-way if the field size makes you cautious, but my money is on the nose.