LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Awaiting result 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cranachan
11/10Top-rated at SR:99, hot yard at 21%, Rossa Ryan booked, winner last time out — the model scores him 6.33, a full point clear. The class rise is a single rung and his rating absorb…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Vaguely Royal
6/1SR:86 is the second-highest in the field, Buick's 25% strike rate is a hard signal to ignore, and recent form shows a win two back. Main danger to Cranachan.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Just An Hour
8/1Ran just 11 days ago and posted consistent form — 343341 shows a genuine stayer who finds a way into the money. SR:78 limits the ceiling but the freshness could count late.
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4Predicted 4th
Shipshape
10/1Bernard Llewellyn's yard runs at 25% over 14 days and that deserves a mention, but Shipshape carries a 20lb weight rise and a 6% jockey strike rate — the yard form is the only pos…
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ironwill
5/1SR 95, distance fit confirmed, 20% yard in form, steaming market move, 8-11 off a pound lighter than last start — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Pilu
17/2SR 95 matches Ironwill, distance and going both read plus, and back-to-back wins in the form string with Roger Teal's yard running at 20% makes this the main threat.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Far Above Dream
7/2Highest SR in the field at 99 and a steamer to 7/2, but 11lb weight rise to 9-12 is a punishing ask and James Owen's yard is running at just 7%.
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4Predicted 4th
Northcliff
14/1Won last time out, Jane Chapple-Hyam's yard is scorching at 33% from nine runners, but a going tag of minus and a two-class rise limit confidence in a finishing slot.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Infraad
4/6SR:118 — the class ceiling of this field — combined with a 31311 form string showing consistent improvement. Haggas yard at 19% strike rate; the drift is market noise, not informe…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Galilean Quality
6/1SR:101 with a 6lb weight drop and distance-fit flagged positive; K.R. Burke's yard near-hot at 18%, and recent form shows a horse hitting its straps at the right time.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Galiyan
11/4SR:108 is second-highest in the field and James Doyle's 21% career strike rate gives confidence, but the distance query and going marked neutral rather than positive cap upside.
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4Predicted 4th
Guildmaster
28/1SR:70 makes a win a stiff ask, but Gosden yard at 25% and Buick in the plate at 28/1 is a place-market flicker worth acknowledging — not winning, but not irrelevant.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cockade
9/4SR 99, 9-6 weight advantage over nine rivals, Gosden yard at 25% and Buick booked — every credible signal points here despite the 104-day layoff.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Drymee
13/2SR 93, confirmed distance positive, Fanshawe at a 27% strike rate and James Doyle aboard — the second-most compelling case in the race behind Cockade.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Princling
5/2SR 101 tops the field and the market loves him at 5/2, but that terminal six and class drop temper expectations to a place rather than a win.
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4Predicted 4th
Hygge
12/1The model's top pick on market move and form, but Elliott's cold 9% yard form and SR 92 ceiling make a place finish the realistic ceiling here.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Pink Larkspur
13/8SR 157 is top-class for this level; Gosden yard at 25% in 14 days and Buick at 25% career SR are the strongest combined signals in the field. Hold-up style suits the lone-leader p…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Concurrent
10/3SR 152 is the second-highest rating and 9-2 represents manageable weight for a Balding two-year-old, but the drift from 6/1 to 10/3 and a single fifth-place effort keep her behind…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
India's Ridge
11/1The steamer into 11/1 is the model's top signal and it is real — Hannon debutantes with stable confidence can land live third-place claims, even if the SR of 144 is the field's th…
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4Predicted 4th
Ibtekar
7/1SR 149 is competitive but a blank form line, a 14% jockey SR, and no corroborating signal beyond speed leaves Ibtekar as fourth best on the evidence available.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Norcross Brow
8/1SR 81, form 121123, a 40% yard and a 32%-strike jockey combine into the most compelling multi-signal case in the race. Weight advantage over Tex seals it.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tex
5/2SR 91 is class of the field, distance and going both tick green, last run a win at 2/1F — the favourite has every right to finish in the frame and will press hard.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Son
15/2Tim Easterby's yard is at 20% and the market is steaming, but the distance minus is a genuine concern; expect a solid each-way effort rather than a winner.
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4Predicted 4th
Signcastle City
17/2Steadily priced at 17/2 across three runs and the market is steaming again today; going is a negative but light weight and consistent SP suggest stable confidence.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Charlie Boyo
3/1SR-leader at 79, hot trainer at 20% strike rate, steaming market with a track record of shortening predictively. Going fit confirmed; speed is the model's strongest positive drive…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moe's Legacy
4/1SR 76, just 1lb off topweight, and only 18 days since his last run — fresh enough, and the speed driver is the model's highest positive for him. Each-way claims are real.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Monsieur Patat
11/2Steaming from 5/2F two runs ago down to 11/2 today with a 5lb weight drop. Going is a negative (GF:-) but the market move and form driver keep him honest for a place.
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4Predicted 4th
Army Bugler
9/1SR 71 is modest but the going suits (GF:+) and the form driver is positive. The +8lb weight rise is the primary concern keeping him to fourth.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Distant Rumble
7/2Steaming market move to 7/2, highest deterministic score at 6.43, and Teal's yard at 38% in the past fortnight. The contested pace map sets up exactly the race his profile needs.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Legendsoftheland
10/3Class drop of three rungs is the biggest concession in the field and the form reads 213132 — consistent and competitive. The cold trainer is the reason he doesn't go first.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Kiss And Run
8/1Steaming from 8/1 and Rachel Cook & John Bridger operating at 33% from a small sample — weight drop of 4lb and front-running style could pinch a place before the hot pace catches …
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4Predicted 4th
Control Room
15/2Distance-plus and going-plus flags are the cleanest fit combination outside the top three; consistent placed form (232442) and a 13-day turnaround suggests sharpness.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Devon Angel
9/2Top of the deterministic model at 6.20, led by the race's largest market-move signal (+0.8); SR 59 heads the realistic contenders at the weights, and De Sousa's booking seals it.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hemustbeanangel
2/1SR 68 is the race's best figure and Teal's 38% yard form is exceptional, but a +4lb weight rise versus last run blunts the advantage and keeps this one a place behind.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Past Passion
4/1SR 72 is the headline number in the race, but Portman's yard at 6% over the fortnight is a serious flag; still talented enough to hit the frame at a moderate pace.
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4Predicted 4th
So Tempting
11/1A steamer at 11/1 with a +0.8 market-move driver mirrors Devon Angel's profile at longer odds; hold-up style suits a moderate tempo, making this the each-way outsider with a genui…
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Maharajas Express
4/1Model top-pick at 6.03 with form and speed as primary drivers; David Probert takes over on a six-year-old arriving off a winning run and carrying a manageable 9-5.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
South Shore
3/1SR 84 is the field's ceiling and Tom Marquand's 16% strike rate keeps him dangerous, but the D:- flag and class rise limit the ceiling.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jax Edge
6/1SR 76, fifth in the model, and a consistent recent form string (617823) at the same class; the each-way terms at 6/1 make this the value place play.
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4Predicted 4th
Toolatetonegotiate
17/2The steamer signal and a positive distance fit elevate it above its SR 73 rating; a 0% trainer strike rate caps upside, but the market move is too loud to ignore entirely.
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