LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
-
Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Sharadd
3/10Unbeaten on debut, top model score of 6.41, hottest trainer in the field at 18% strike rate, and a market that has refused to drift all morning. The case is overwhelming.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Our Son Oscar
10/3A solid debut third-to-second run earns him second place in the model at 4.92; the drift to 10/3 is a concern but he is clearly the second-best horse here on form.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Mugheer
20/1Two starts as favourite, beaten both times stepping up in class; the form string of 14 at least shows consistency, and he edges Mehmas Star on the model at 4.71.
-
4Predicted 4th
Mehmas Star
14/1A distant second followed by a twentieth gives little encouragement; the lightest weight in the field is a minor plus but the model scores him last among the realistic runners.
-
-
Winner placed 1/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Gaspacho
6/1Haggas yard at 18% strike rate, a 17lb weight drop into this field, and a form profile built entirely on winning at short prices — this horse drops in, not down.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Baltic Fleet
18/1The model's top pick and the only steamer in the race; going fit is confirmed and a 9lb weight rise suggests the handicapper has pinned the rating correctly after a pulled-up blip.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Glory Road
11/2Three-run winning sequence and Beckett's yard firing at 22% in the past fortnight; the drift is the only question mark on a horse with genuine class claims.
-
4Predicted 4th
Bintknight
8/1Form string 512141 is the field's most consistent recent profile and going fits, but the two-class rise is the ceiling — place claims only at this level.
-
-
Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Waasil
9/2Model leader on 6.78, steaming from morning, two wins from last three at a trip that suits. K. R. Burke sends him here in form and the 2lb rise won't stop him.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Regency Royal
7/2Steaming hard at 7/2, model third on 6.32, Andrew Balding's yard with six winners from 55 runners in 14 days and a form line (201) that shows a horse building into form.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Everatease
15/2Only runner flagged both D:+ and GF:+ in this field; the 48-day freshener and steamer move at 15/2 from Eve Johnson Houghton's yard signal a horse saved for this moment.
-
4Predicted 4th
Capitano Josepi
7/1Debut winner steaming in this market, 8lb lighter than last run, Jack Mitchell (16% career strike) booked — the unknown quantity here, but the signals are too loud to ignore.
-
-
Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Beagle Bay
7/4Form string of 2-1411, distance and going both green, Beckett yard at 22% and steamering market — every signal points here. The 118-day break is the only question mark the market …
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Spoken Truth
7/1Three placed efforts from last six, going fit confirmed, Daniel Tudhope booked — the form shows consistent honesty at this class level and the 7/1 reflects a horse the market hasn…
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Mr Swivell
18/1Steamed into 18/1 despite modest form, distance fit ticked, Kevin Philippart de Foy yard at 23% — the market move on an 18-runner each-way play is too loud to ignore entirely.
-
4Predicted 4th
Inspired
10/1Form string 212110 is exceptional recent consistency, distance fit confirmed, and a class drop adds pressure — the +15lb weight rise is the only structural barrier to a win.
-
-
Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Ancient State
9/2Market steamer, top deterministic score (6.04), D:+ in a field of question marks, and consistent front-half form across his last four runs at this level.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Maelstrom
13/2Hot yard at 20%, two recent wins in the form string, and both distance and going ticks confirmed — the speed deficit is the one reservation at five furlongs.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Gold Star Hero
11/2Last SP of 8/1 after opening 25/1 suggests improving profile; the model credits speed as a positive driver and his 150253 string has enough substance for a place claim.
-
4Predicted 4th
Glamorous Breeze
12/1Eight-year-old who ticks both distance and going (D:+, GF:+) and has placed in four of his last six — at 12/1 he is a legitimate each-way fringe runner.
-
-
Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Thunder Call
7/2Three wins in last five, positive distance and going fit, Haggas yard at 19% — the form-line dominance over this class-equivalent field is unambiguous. Class-carrier at 9-7 but th…
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Mezcala
15/2A confirmed steamer with positive distance and going fit, dropping 3lb from last run. Jack Channon's yard is cold but the market move is hard to ignore at 15/2.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Machadadorp
12/1Six-run form string ending 1-1-6-1 in last four, positive distance and going fit, drops 2lb. Front-runner who could easily steal it if the pace splits badly.
-
4Predicted 4th
Pellitory
18/1Form reads 020131 with a return to a going-neutral surface; the model rates form and speed highly — 18/1 looks generous for a horse freshest in the field at 14 days.
-
-
Winner placed 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Division
7/4D:+ GF:+ with Haggas at 19% and Tudhope at 18% — the placed form string of -32352 reads as a horse begging for everything to fall right, and today it does.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Prince of India
7/2Last-run winner at 6/4F and the form figure is impossible to dismiss — the cold Botti yard is the only serious caveat at 7/2.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Sayidah Dariyan
11/1The market knows something — a 5lb weight drop and a steaming price keeps her honest, but the going and distance are only neutral fits rather than positives.
-
4Predicted 4th
Elmonjed
10/1Speed and going ratings are among the field's strongest drivers, but the drift from 8/1 to 10/1 with a 3lb penalty is a flag this Haggas second-string may be a lesser option than …
-
-
Winner placed 4/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Tenability
6/4Model-top at 6.92, steaming market move, 5lb weight drop, distance and going fit both positive — every signal points the same direction.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Al Aasy
3/1Form figures of 2131 are hard to dismiss, but a 6lb rise on a nine-year-old is a genuine ask; the danger is real, the ceiling is capped.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
By The Book
4/1Appleby at 41% strike rate keeps By The Book honest; the form reads like a horse improving in the right company and 3lb lighter than last time helps.
-
4Predicted 4th
Royal Playwright
16/1120 days off, going rated negative, and a 13% jockey strike rate — too many question marks against a cleaner case from the others.
-
-
Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Air Force One
8/1Top of the scored ranking on market move and form, 4lb lighter than last time, and the money has not been wrong-footed today. McDonald knows the horse.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Fluorescence
13/2Best form string consistency in the field, GF a positive, and Tudhope's 18% career strike rate is the joint-highest booking here.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Tuco Salamanca
5/2Form 161012 shows multiple wins at this level, distance a positive, and Loughnane's 18% strike rate commands respect even if the drift gives pause.
-
4Predicted 4th
Regional
15/2Second in the deterministic model on speed, placed at 15/8F recently, and Clifford Lee's 17% strike rate makes Regional's 15/2 a value outsider flag.
-
-
Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
-
🥇Predicted 1st
So Regal
11/10Model's top-ranked horse, hottest yard in the field at 28%, Loughnane booked, distance fit confirmed, and the market at 11/10 is saying the same thing. The form string supports it.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Domina Ignis
10/1The strongest market move in the field from 50/1 territory to 10/1 is not noise — something has changed. Model scores it second overall on speed and the steamer signal. Cannot be …
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Secret History
33/1Two wins in six runs, distance and going fit both confirmed positive, and 33/1 looks a wild overestimate of a horse with genuine placed claims at this level.
-
4Predicted 4th
Albaydaa
11/1Haggas yard at 19% and a distance fit confirmed; the step up in class is a concern but the weight drop of 6lb from last run is a real mitigation.
-