LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Speed of Sound
10/1Tops the deterministic model at 6.85; best combined market move and speed score in the field at 10/1 makes her the most rewarded signal in a wide-open debutantes' heat.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Desert Smoke
7/1SR 149 and the equal-best speed figure in the model; Murphy's booking for Palmer's yard in a six-furlong Newmarket maiden is never idle, debutante or not.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Acting Lady
5/2Highest SR in the field at 154 and Buick's confidence is real, but the negative market move and class-change flag cap her to third in this projection.
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4Predicted 4th
Sierra Belle
15/2SR 147 with a positive speed figure and a small trainer strike-rate credit for Ralph Beckett; Colin Keane holds the ride and should get a clean run from a settled midfield positio…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Blue Bolt
11/4Model's top scorer at 6.50, back-to-back wins in form, going and speed signals align, and 11/4 represents genuine value against a drifting favourite.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Precise
4/5SR 131 is the field's highest and Ryan Moore keeps her honest throughout, but the market drift and weight concession undermine her case for the top spot.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jancis
10/1The strongest market-move in the field at +0.8 is a genuine signal; Sean Levey has a live each-way claim at 10/1 if the pace suits.
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4Predicted 4th
Evolutionist
16/1SR 109 is modest but the going and form drivers are positive, and 16/1 leaves room for a placed effort if the fancied runners disappoint.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Wine Dark Sea
5/6Top deterministic score (6.89), strongest market confidence at 5/6, and consecutive wins heading in — the form string and market move alignment is the clearest signal in this fiel…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Valedictory
3/1Field-leading SR of 105 and Buick in the saddle for Gosden gives him every chance of filling the frame, even with the negative market drift working against a win.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Goblet Of Fire
17/2A /21-51 form string shows recent winning form and a SR of 89 is workable; Henderson's rare handicap entries tend to arrive with purpose and Saffie Osborne has been riding with co…
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4Predicted 4th
Beylerbeyi
14/1SR of 85 and a 223608 form string showing placed efforts earlier in the season give Beylerbeyi each-way claims at 14/1 if the pace suits a hold-up finish.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Etonnante
10/1SR 152 leads the field by a clear margin, the market-move signal is strongly positive at +0.8, and Burke's filly has the speed driver to settle matters on good-to-firm Newmarket g…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Senorita Bonita
5/2Second in the deterministic ranking at 6.44 with Murphy riding and a positive market-move score; the SR gap to Etonnante is wide but she is the most credible threat on form and pr…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Libertango
8/11Unbeaten form demands respect but the -0.6 market-move flag on a drifting favourite is too loud to ignore; third place on ability, behind her on the day.
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4Predicted 4th
Ruby Moon
25/1SR 131 and a clean winning form line give Ryan Moore something to work with; the -0.6 market-move signal keeps her out of the frame places.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Decade Of Time
6/1Three wins from three, the field's highest deterministic score at 6.38, and the strongest market move signal at +0.8 — the progressive three-year-old at a fair price.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Laureate Crown
9/2SR 105 is the field's highest rating and a 110 run sequence shows Hugo Palmer has him in career-best form; speed driver at +0.5 is second-best in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Evanesco
9/2Deterministic rank second at 6.25 with a +0.8 market move matching Decade Of Time, but the 17-417 form string is less convincing than three consecutive wins.
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4Predicted 4th
Princling
9/4William Haggas and Tom Marquand are a dangerous combination, but a 22-145 form line at 9/4 favourite suggests the market is overstating recent improvement.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Shipbourne
7/2SR 100, top-rated in the field, carrying 9-0 off a clean 13-1 form line with the strongest model score at 6.99 and a meaningful market-move signal backing the assessment.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Spanish Voice
9/2SR 96 with Ryan Moore and a 187101 form string demands respect, but 10-1 weight conceding 7lb to Shipbourne on this track is the ceiling.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
The Joker
15/2SR 91, lightly weighted at 8-10, and a 9-3321 form string showing progressive placed efforts — maps as the danger from off the pace at the right price.
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4Predicted 4th
Priapos
9/1SR 89, recent back-to-back wins (2-7411), and 9-7 in weight makes Priapos a genuine finisher — just a step behind the front three on ratings.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Morris Dancer
11/8SR 126 leads the field by twelve points, model-top scorer at 6.28, speed and form drivers both positive, Buick and Good to Firm all align without reservation.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Wild Desert
9/2SR 115, consistent 1232- form, Moore booked — the class-change drag from juvenile to Listed pulls him just short of Morris Dancer on the day.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Colori Forever
7/1SR 112, form positive on going and speed, model second-ranked among the chasing pack at 5.55 — Marco Ghiani capable of producing him for a late rattle.
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4Predicted 4th
Shayem
7/2SR 114, model score 5.44 edges Conclave, but 1-0542 form raises questions — likely fills a minor position without threatening the front two.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Tall Trees
13/2SR 150, model-second at 5.98, positive market-move driver, and Marquand booked — the improving form arc from debut to second run points to a filly ready to graduate today.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Peaceful Charm
4/7SR 156 is the class of the field and Buick won't be far back — but a debutante at 4/7 conceding nothing to exposed rivals is a short price for an unknown quantity.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Madam Secretary
17/2SR 148 and Ryan Moore for O'Brien at 17/2 is a combination that routinely runs into a place; a third on debut gives her a clear form line over the others outside the top two.
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4Predicted 4th
Scommessa Sicura
4/1Three consecutive seconds — form of 222 — shows Balding's filly is consistent and honest, but SR of 98 means the principals are in a different class once the pace tells.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Rebel's Romance
11/10SR-129 leads the field, deterministic score 6.44, form-string 3112-1 reads like a horse peaking at exactly the right moment under Buick on his favoured good-to-firm Newmarket surf…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tenability
15/2SR-118, form 112-31, and Haggas's precision placement make Tenability the most dangerous threat; 15/2 is generous for a horse that has finished worse than third only once in five …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Convergent
15/8SR-120 matches Almeric but the market rates Convergent significantly tighter; K. R. Burke's record with four-year-olds stepping up in class supports a podium finish, though the 11…
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4Predicted 4th
Almeric
13/2SR-120 and Oisin Murphy aboard keeps Almeric honest, but the 119-33 sequence trails off late and 13/2 reflects a horse whose ceiling has already been found.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sea Cookie
8/1Lowest effective weight in the field after Callan's claim, back-to-back wins in the form column, and a +0.8 market move all converge. Model top score of 6.66 confirmed by every co…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Thunder Call
7/2SR 101 leads the field on raw ability, and 02-11 form shows a horse on the upgrade; 8-13 is workable if the gallop is honest, which this pace map suggests it will be.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Red Spells Danger
13/2The -22112 sequence is the most consistent form string in the race and good-to-firm Newmarket is his ground, but 9-1 will cost him a length and a half at the business end.
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4Predicted 4th
Calico Blue
6/1SR 99 and 311-24 form show a consistent performer; Roger Varian's yard rarely sends them to Newmarket without a live chance, and the going credit is real.
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